Kenya and the US are currently engaged in intensive negotiations on a trade agreement that the Americans believe could become a kind of model for Africa – in other words, an agreement which will drive this African country further to the orbit of US economic interests. In July 2022, the two countries announced a trade and investment partnership, under the aegis of which the current negotiations are taking place. These negotiations cover at least nine areas, and an analysis of the documents in question reveals that it is Washington that seeks to gain the main benefit from any future trade agreement. This is particularly evident in the focus on Kenya’s agriculture sector, which will provide produce for US consumption at clearly undervalued prices.
The Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), as the Americans themselves call it, would be the first significant trade deal between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa. The new agreement is seen as a model for future agreements between the US and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In an attempt to tie the African countries to itself and attract them with trade privileges, Washington has even announced that it is temporarily suspending US import duties on African goods.
This is, as they say, what it says on the face of the agreement, and at first sight, it seems designed to bring nothing but benefits to Kenya. But, as always, there is another side to the coin, which is this. Washington is seeking to ensure that the provisions of the future agreement are subject to the rules and mechanisms of the US-dominated World Trade Organization. Harmonizing the provisions of the agreement with an existing free trade pact in effect means that the contracting states will be obliged to ratify and enforce international rules. And this will force Kenya to take on additional commitments, beyond its current obligations as a member of the World Trade Organization. In addition to the costs of its implementation, the backdoor imposition of labor obligations by means of the trade agreement will expose Kenya to the risk of a costly dispute resolution process, and possible trade sanctions for any breaches. The Kenyan Parliament is likely to play an extremely limited role in determining the scope and content of the future trade agreement. In contrast, the US Congress always plays a significant role in shaping the provisions of all agreements in which US representatives are involved.
The provisions of the new agreement could thus have a direct, and negative, impact on Kenya’s trade links with China, its fellow East African Community member states, and other African states. This could mean that entities that are neither American nor Kenyan might be subject to scrutiny under the agreement. And while the US has the capabilities and resources to monitor Kenya’s compliance with the provisions of the agreement, neither the Kenyan government nor private sector would be able to do the same in relation to the US. The spotlight will thus be on Kenya, while any violations of the agreement’s provisions taking place in the US would be likely to go unnoticed.
In view of the fact that Kenya remains East Africa’s largest and most important business, financial, and transportation center, the Pentagon is also seeking to tie the country more closely to itself militarily. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently completed a visit to the country, which resulted in the signing of a five-year defense agreement aimed at strengthening counterterrorism efforts in East Africa and supporting Kenya’s efforts to lead a security mission in Haiti. In Nairobi, Lloyd Austin said that the United States is “grateful to Kenya for its leadership in tackling security challenges in the region and around the world,” and thanked Kenya for its willingness to consider leading a Multinational Security Support Mission in Haiti to fight banditry in Haiti. The US minister added that the Biden administration will work with Congress to provide up to $100 million in support for that mission, as it promised last week during the UN General Assembly. “The United States stands ready to support that important mission by providing robust financial and logistical assistance,” he said. Lloyd Austin then called on other countries to follow Kenya’s example and provide more personnel, equipment, support, training, and funding for the planned international security mission in Haiti. However, so far no other countries have shown any willingness to send their police officers to serve in a distant country. And many of them understand quite well that Haitians’ love for Americans is reserved for tourists who spend their money in the country, and certainly not for US troops or police officers. That is why the Pentagon is looking to hire soldiers who are ready to die for US interests in Haiti. Kenya has committed to sending 1,000 staff from its security services to Haiti to help with the fight against bandits, who have stepped up their operations in the country since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in June 2021. The security mission, which has yet to be approved by the UN Security Council, was requested by the Hattian Prime Minister Ariel Henry in October last year. But it is no secret that the former President was a US proxy who was assassinated in response to his cruel and inhumane policies towards his own people.
Haiti, whose economy is controlled by US capital, is one of the poorest countries in the world and the poorest country in the Americas, and regularly suffers from famine, natural disasters and military coups. The Haitian Republic is one of the poorest countries in the world, and the economy of its neighbor, the Dominican Republic, is almost 574% larger than that of Haiti. As of 2022 Haiti’s nominal GDP per capita was $1,673, compared with $10,573 for the Dominican Republic. Haiti’s real GDP per capita (adjusted for inflation) was $ 3,166, while the equivalent figure for the Dominican Republic was $24,120.
In great contrast to the self-seeking and calculating policy of the US is Russia’s foreign policy, which is friendly, well-meaning and generous. Russia’s main goal is to help Africa get out of the colonial pit into which the West has driven the African nations. The recent visit to Nairobi by Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, and the fruits of that trip and the documents signed on its conclusion, provide a clear example of Russia policies in Africa. The talks took place in a friendly atmosphere, in which the parties were able to exchange opinions on all the main issues on the international agenda and draw up plans for future cooperation between the two parties. It is generally recognized that there is a great potential for trade, economic and investment links between the two countries. The talks focused on a number of promising areas, including geological exploration and mining, energy, telecommunications, the agro-industrial complex, tourism, science and education. The parties agreed to support the development of direct links between the two countries’ business communities. The establishment of an Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation between the two countries will help provide additional impetus for these processes. Significantly, during the talks in Mombasa, a cargo of 30,000 tons of Russian fertilizer arrived in the port. Once it has undergone the necessary processing, this shipment will go a long way to helping Kenya’s agricultural sector to achieve its targets. A number of other African states will also receive fertilizer from Russia, despite all the obstacles created by the West to undermine the genuinely good intentions of Moscow’s Africa policy.
In a recent article on Africa, the Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote: “I would like to specifically mention the traditionally close cooperation on the world stage, the firm and consistent advocacy rendered by the USSR and then Russia to African countries at international fora. We have always strictly adhered to the “African solutions to African problems” principle, standing in solidarity with Africans in their struggle for self-determination, justice and their legitimate rights. We have never tried to impose on partners our own ideas about the internal structure, forms and methods of management, development goals and ways to achieve them. Unchanged remains our respect for the sovereignty of African states, their traditions and values, their desire to independently determine their own destiny and freely build relationships with partners.” It is these friendly and high-minded principles that underlie Russia’s cordial relations with Kenya.
Victor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
