India and Pakistan, the two main countries of the “South Asia” sub-region, whose physical contours are quite conventional (as with any other “political” region’s geography), are gradually entering general parliamentary elections. And, while the time of their meeting in India is likely to occur in April-May of next year, the situation in Pakistan remains questionable, as detailed below.
The main act in any “democratic” country’s process of forming power structures, general elections, is always a source of many types of internal turmoil, which can exacerbate the existent, more or less constant, country-specific instability factors.
Both notions are applicable to India and Pakistan, two de facto nuclear powers that have been at odds with each other since their independence in the late 1940s. The fundamental reason for this is the Kashmir issue, which is as harmful to peacekeeping in the Indo-Pacific area as the situation around Taiwan. This is also why the most memorable domestic political events that have recently taken place in both of these countries on the eve of the upcoming elections are worth mentioning.
To begin with, both India’s and Pakistan’s problems, which are relatively similar in shape and origin due to the complicated architectures of both countries, have become more intense. Let us highlight once more that the late-1940s act to “simplify” the structure of future independent India and Pakistan did not solve the aforementioned concerns. Having cost the lives of several million people since then, it has hardly “simplified” domestic political life in either country, while creating a new, extremely deadly one in the form of the aforementioned Kashmir issue.
As for India, the NEO recently discussed another sore point over a long-standing problem stemming from separatist sentiment among some of the Sikhs living in the north of the country in the state of Punjab. It has subsequently been covered with a “fresh crust,” yet it continues to make an impact abroad through various actions near Indian embassies in London, Ottawa, and Washington, organized by local Sikh groups.
In recent months, there has been a similar reopening of old sores over two other issues stemming from periodic escalation of tension between members of major religious denominations and various ethno-tribes. One of the state of Haryana’s regular Hindu street processions fought with Muslim organizations, spilling to the suburbs of the nearby national capital. Six people were killed and 70 were injured as a result, and it appears that the tensions here have not dissipated as of writing this article. To immediately quell the uproar, local authorities took severe measures, such as demolishing houses belonging to the “instigators” that were purportedly erected illegally.
The state of Manipur, one of the seven states known as the Seven Sisters, situated in the far northeast and nearly cut off from the mainland, has experienced even more violent acts, with the death toll alone surpassing 200. An incident that started the unrest was only minor at the time, but it served as the catalyst for more serious, long-standing problems to come to light. The term “tribalism” can be used to describe all of them.
Furthermore, the region borders Myanmar, which is ethno-religiously diverse, and there is a “cross-border exchange” of similar difficulties. Furthermore, Myanmar appears to be one of the world’s top exporters of drugs, largely synthetic today. One of their smuggling routes crosses precisely through the Seven Sisters region.
Events like those in Haryana and Manipur could not help but be at the center of an election campaign that has already begun, with the main players almost determined. On the one hand, this would be the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party seeking re-election for the second time since spring 2014 as part of a coalition with other party-political minorities. This time, unlike the 2014 and 2019 election situations, it will be opposed by an opposition bloc with the self-explanatory abbreviation I.N.D.I.A. (The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
It is based on the Indian National Congress, the country’s oldest party, which dominated the country since independence with a brief break until 2013, and numerous other, although only regional, parties.
Prominent among the latter is the capital-based Common Man’s Party (Aam Aadmi Party, AAP). AAP first made its presence known in 2015 with a convincing victory in the local legislative elections. This success was confirmed five years later in a similar election in Delhi However, AAP is beginning to assert itself in a number of other states as well.
The BJP has a significant edge in the ongoing election campaign because it is publicly represented by the current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. His name has been associated with all of the country’s major achievements in recent years, both domestically and in foreign policy.
“A recognizable face” from the opposition may be Rahul Gandhi, representing the political Nehru-Gandhi clan. However, on March 23, this year, he was sentenced to two years in prison by the District Court of Surat, Gujarat state, for defaming the existing prime minister. The reason for this court decision was certain words he spoke about Modi back in 2019. This court ruling anticipated Rahul Gandhi’s eventual removal from the lower chamber of the Indian Parliament and, more broadly, called into doubt the politician’s very participation in the election campaign, which was critical for the opposition.
However, the convict himself is not only still at large, but has also acted publicly with renewed vigor. This was facilitated by the Supreme Court’s decision to grant a stay of the aforementioned verdict. In view of this, INC’s party members have already demanded the restoration of Rahul Gandhi’s membership in Parliament.
The first clash of the defined political parties took place early in August, when the opposition requested a vote of no confidence in the prime minister in Parliament due to the tragic events in the aforementioned states of Haryana and Manipur. This action by the opposition was more of a “make itself known” effort given that the BJP and its allies currently hold an overwhelming majority in the parliament. The opposition PMs left the meeting of the Parliament during Narendra Modi’s speech, which was tough on their historic leaders.
A much worse scenario, although ostensibly resembling the situation with Rahul Gandhi, is developing around former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, who is facing charges from the nation’s court authorities on more than a dozen different bases. According to one of them, the leader of the Pakistan Movement for Justice (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI) was convicted on August 5 to three years in prison and a five-year ban on political activity. On the same day, the former prime minister found himself in a prison of what his associates say is poor quality for convicts. However, it still seems unlikely that the promptly filed appeal will be granted.
The PTI’s involvement in the upcoming general elections remains unclear. The elections will be held in conjunction with the expiration of the outgoing parliament’s mandate at the end of July this year. The party is still under threat of being accused of organizing mass riots with pogroms, which took place on May 9 this year. As far as it can be understood, an investigation is ongoing, during which PTI officials are being questioned. As a result, some of them appear to have resigned from the former prime minister’s party, and there is already talk of a “split.”
Anyway, Shehbaz Sharif’s parliament and government have been dissolved since August 10. At the time of writing, candidates were being considered for the offices of “interim” Prime Minister and key ministry heads. The date of the upcoming elections, on the other hand, remains a mystery. There has been discussion of both three months under current regulations and (for some reason) half a year.
However, there is already a view that with the previous prime minister and incidentally the country’s most popular politician, being expelled, the legitimacy of the outcome of future elections will inevitably be in doubt.
All of these political games are taking place against the backdrop of a difficult overall situation in Pakistan and the region. Terrorist attacks continue in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces; trains derail for unknown reasons; and the country’s financial default has only been postponed so far. India’s relations with Afghanistan continue to be tense.
In these conditions, one can only hope that the next “calendar” electoral processes in the two major South Asian countries will be devoid of exceptional costs. Both for themselves and for the situation in the subregion as a whole.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”