In December 2022, media reports surfaced that Pakistan was supplying Ukraine with grenades for Soviet military equipment. Confirmation was provided by data on several flights of British military transport aircraft based in Romania that made frequent flights to and from Pakistan. And already in February 2023, Islamabad started to shamelessly supply its ammunition to Kyiv.
Today, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is in a rather difficult position. The country borders Afghanistan to the north, where the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) came to power in 2021, which spreads the ideas of radical Islamism in the northern part of a country of 242 million people; and to the east lies India, with which Pakistan has had hostile relations since its independence in 1947 because of the Kashmir conflict.
Pakistan’s economy lacks a developed industrial sector and is highly dependent on high-tech equipment from other countries. China, Pakistan’s key partner, is increasing its economic presence in the country every year. Islamabad is not in a position to abandon its overly close trade cooperation with Beijing because other important trading partners, such as the US, the EU and the Gulf states, are too far away, and dialogue with India, with which Pakistan could have excellent relations, is suspended because of the long-standing territorial dispute mentioned earlier.
In order not to become completely dependent on China in the foreseeable future, Pakistan’s leadership is seeking friendly relations with Western countries. Since 2004, Pakistan has enjoyed the status of an important ally of the United States outside NATO. This is largely due to Islamabad’s recognition that Washington is an important external force that can help Pakistan counter possible aggression by the Afghan Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation). China, eager to sign comprehensive trade partnership agreements with other countries, is in no hurry to place its military facilities on their territory: Pakistan is no exception. It is very important to note that the US Army has extensive and successful combat experience, while the Chinese Army, despite its impressive size and efficient military industry, has not participated in any major armed conflict since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War and is therefore still inferior to the US Army in combat efficiency. Therefore, Islamabad is interested in continued military cooperation with Washington.
Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal and a fairly large army. Pakistan’s military equipment, however, is not homogeneous. During the Cold War, Pakistan purchased weapons from Western bloc countries as a supporter of the United States. In the 1990s, Pakistan bought weapons from the former Soviet Union, which got rid of Soviet military equipment of fairly good quality and up to date at very low prices. For example, according to previously published information, Murat Nyýazow (son of former Turkmen President Saparmyrat Nyýazow, who was in office from 1991 to 2006) arranged the sale of 300 T-72 tanks to the Pakistani Army in the mid-1990s, which belonged to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Today, China is the main supplier of military equipment to Pakistan, since its military products are quite cheap and not much inferior in quality to their American counterparts.
Pakistan’s military-industrial complex is not very efficient because there is no fixed supplier of military equipment. Equipment supplied by the West before 1991 is badly outdated and is gradually being scrapped. Equipment produced in the Soviet Union and sold to Pakistan after its collapse is also beginning to deteriorate. Nonetheless, Pakistan continues to manufacture shells for these assault vehicles, which are proving increasingly difficult for Islamabad to employ with each passing year.
Pakistani Prime Minister since April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif, in his pro-American stance contrasts from his predecessor, Imran Khan. Relations between Russia and Pakistan soured when Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine. First and foremost, this is because there have been certain changes in the international oil market. As Western countries curtailed their energy interactions with Russia, Moscow began to sell oil at a discount to China and India. Pakistan has stated its willingness to purchase Russian oil at a lower price than China and India. Russia, predictably, refused, causing Pakistan’s displeasure.
The corrupt Kyiv dictatorship, which has been fighting Russia since February 24, 2022, has nearly depleted its inventory of Soviet weapon munitions. Western countries, which supply the Ukrainian army with NATO-grade weapons and ammunition, are unable to deliver Soviet weapon shells to Ukraine since NATO member states’ military-industrial complexes do not make them.
Western countries frequently inject political undertones into purely economic matters. The United States and its allies attempt to avoid interactions with countries that disagree with their foreign policies. Pakistan agreed to give Ukraine weapons that were progressively becoming obsolete in order to obtain fresh loans from Western bloc governments.
Islamabad’s actions can be justified by the fact that Pakistan was severely flooded in June 2022 and requires as much foreign investment as possible to rebuild its economy. In addition, Islamabad wants to immediately eradicate the negative economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak and the subsequent series of lockdowns that have severely harmed the country’s economy.
Islamabad is not concerned about retaliation from China or Russia over munitions shipments to the AFU. Pakistan is not reliant on Russian energy resources, while China deals with other nations based on its own economic advantage and rarely considers their stance on the Ukrainian war. In 2022, for example, pro-American South Korea was China’s third most important trading partner, while Washington ally Japan was fourth. Even Taiwan, which is not officially recognized as a sovereign state by the Chinese government and has recently been actively establishing connections with the US (including military ones, to the disadvantage of China), emerged as China’s fifth most important commercial partner.
Clearly, Pakistan follows the trend of helping Ukraine in order to keep good relations with the US and its allies. Without a doubt, Islamabad will benefit from its choice to sell munitions to the AFU, but it will be tough for Pakistan to reestablish its prior partnership with Russia afterwards.
Dmitry Bokarev, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
