Brazil is now in the last weeks before the presidential election on October 4, during a severe institutional crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the Federal Police, and the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The consequences extend well beyond a single judicial decision. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) is itself becoming increasingly divided, as Mendonça’s stance quickly won over Justices Luiz Fux and Kassio Nunes Marques, whereas Justice Gilmar Mendes asked for more time, thereby preventing the case from being concluded immediately. The powers of the court president and the extent of constitutional authority are at stake.
For an international reader, the most important point is that Brazil’s judicial crisis is now closely linked with electoral politics. The suspension of the head of the Federal Police has an impact on an organisation which is at the heart of major criminal investigations and directly questions the executive’s right to appoint its leadership, such as the Federal Police. The ensuing institutional disorder could have a political weakening effect on Lula while opening the way for Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the former president Jair Bolsonaro, and the broader Brazilian far right; the polling indicates that Lula’s earlier lead has narrowed considerably.
There is also a geopolitical aspect to it. The increasing alignment around Mendonça and the Bolsonaro camp is part of a wider political initiative that receives support or encouragement from Washington, as some sources have pointed out based on Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Brazil’s challenge.
The reason this moment is so significant is that Brazil’s struggle over its institutions is occurring at the same time as its divisive electoral struggle. The issue is now not merely who will win the presidency but whether the institutions that govern the election will end up stronger or even weaker as a result of the conflict within the judicial system.
Who is Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça?
André Mendonça is no outsider within Brazil’s political establishment. As a career official of the Federal Attorney’s Office (Advocacia-Geral da União), he held the position of Attorney-General of the Union under Jair Bolsonaro and then became Bolsonaro’s Minister of Justice and Public Security after Sérgio Moro resigned in April 2020 due to a dispute with the president over interference in the Federal Police. Bolsonaro himself wanted to replace the corporation’s general director after denying access to ongoing investigations into his sons and close allies. Under Mendonça, the investigations were stopped.
Bolsonaro later appointed Mendonça to the Supreme Federal Court, to which he was duly appointed in December 2021. Being a well-known evangelical, Mendonça has often expressed his public mission using deeply religious and anti-corruption-oriented language. This background is important since his current conflict with the Federal Police puts him in direct opposition to an organisation whose investigations have increasingly targeted powerful political, economic, and organised crime figures.
The Case Master, a bank owned by André Vorcaro, who is in prison thanks to the Federal Police, involves allegations of crimes relating to the financial system, corruption, money laundering, organised crime, as well as financing Bolsonaro’s biographical movie. However, no clear explanation was given by presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro – who requested the money from the banker – about how the money was spent, especially because the sum received (US $31 million) was far more than necessary to produce the film.
Justice Mendonça’s decision to suspend Director-General Andrei Rodrigues undermines the Federal Police’s institutional capacity and must be seen in the context of an escalating conflict within the Supreme Court or a competition for power. For Mendonça’s critics, this creates an uncomfortable contradiction: a judge who speaks out on an anti-corruption mission is now accused of obstructing an investigative body that is increasingly prepared to deal with Brazil’s political and financial elites as never before. There are political suspicions, raised by several analysts, that his actions might benefit Bolsonaro’s camp and affect the October election.
A decision provoking chaos as an intended consequence
The most controversial element of Justice André Mendonça’s decision is not simply that he suspended both the Director-General of the Federal Police, Andrei Rodrigues, and the Intelligence Director, Leandro Almada, but rather the manner in which and within what institutional context this action was taken.
The move was grounded in intelligence reports that Mendonça regarded as proof of illegal surveillance directed against himself and Attorney General Jorge Messias; yet the decision is said to have been made without first consulting the Prosecutor-General’s Office or the police authorities concerned, and without observing the usual procedural protections that should be in place before imposing such a serious preventive measure.
Sources also point out that Rodrigues is not normally within the STF’s jurisdiction and that by positioning himself as the alleged victim of the actions in question, Mendonça effectively assumed the roles of investigator, judge, and decision-maker in the same matter. It is this very circumstance that makes the incident so deeply problematic from an institutional point of view: the decision directly interferes with the executive branch’s power to appoint the head of the Federal Police and could potentially disrupt the leadership of an organisation carrying out highly sensitive investigations.
The effects have already gone beyond the two officials in question. The Federal Police leadership has responded as a group, with eleven of its thirteen directors offering to hand over their positions to the government as a show of solidarity with the suspended officers.
For the Supreme Court, the risk is even greater: an internal judicial disagreement has turned into an open conflict among the Court’s members, with the Second Chamber already split and the case possibly being referred to the full plenary session. The outcome is thus harming the STF’s reputation as a neutral constitutional body, undermining confidence in the independence of the judiciary, and blurring the line between adjudication, investigation, and political power.
And since this confrontation is taking place right before the October 4 election, a judicial crisis has become a political one, with direct implications for the balance of power between Lula and the Bolsonaro camp. Bolsonaro’s camp is benefiting from this chaos, as the extreme right usually benefits from chaos. Thus, an important Brazilian analyst said that Justice Mendonça is deliberately provoking this chaos.
Ricardo Martins – Doctor of Sociology, specialist in European and international politics as well as geopolitics
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