On October 27, elections were held in the lower house of the Japanese National Diet. As a result, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito lost the majority, which put it and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in a difficult position.
Why did the LDP lose its support?
At the same time, the new PM, taking advantage of his status and popularity, declared the dissolution of the lower house of the Diet and announced elections. On the one hand, Shigeru Ishiba’s gamble was that the uncoordinated opposition parties would not have time to react appropriately to such a sudden decision, would not be able to form a coalition against the LDP and Komeito and would алсо not be able to decide on candidates for nomination. In addition, the votes could be spread among different opposition parties, as a result of which the LDP candidates would win. On the other hand, several events occurred on the eve of the elections that turned many voters away from voting for the ruling force.
In the winter of 2023-2024, Japan was shocked by a scandal in which the money for the party’s needs was misused by the LDP dietmen. Many party members were involved in this financial fraud. The very existence of this scandal already significantly tarnished the reputation of the LDP, but its troubles were far from over. On October 25, the Communist Party reported that the LDP had secretly redirected large amounts of money to support candidates who were involved in the scandal. Ishiba promised not to support LDP members accused of fraud in the elections and to cure the political system; however, the party, even before winning the elections, had already managed to break these promises, which could not help but undermine the trust of voters in it.
Shigeru Ishiba risks losing his post as prime minister
Shigeru Ishiba’s radical statements have made many pacifist voters doubt his candidacy, so already on the eve of the elections, some experts saw that he may have to leave his post. This seemed possible if the LDP and Komeito were to find themselves in the minority and the opposition united to promote an alternative candidate (the first part of this scenario has already come true; the second remains possible). Moreover, Shigeru Ishiba’s support within his own party is not strong enough. This can be seen from the elections for the LDP president: Sanae Takaichi was in the lead in the first round (181 votes), Shigeru Ishiba came in second (154 votes) and Shinjiro Koizumi came in third (136 votes). The votes depend on the number of dietmen and the LDP members who pay contributions. It is important to note that Shigeru Ishiba had more support from the second group; he received only 46 votes from dietmen, while Takaichi and Koizumi received 72 and 75 votes, respectively. In addition, Ishiba beat Takaichi by only 21 votes in the final round (215 votes for Ishiba versus 194 for Takaichi). There are many LDP members who are dissatisfied with Ishiba’s performance during the elections and they may force the PM to step down through behind-the-scenes negotiations. In addition, many voters who support Takaichi have been posting online calling not to vote for the LDP to disgrace Ishiba and force him to resign, allowing Takaichi to become the LDP president. This shows that many citizens who supported the LDP were also dissatisfied with Ishiba.
LDP in Dire Situation
The approval rating of the cabinet formed by Ishiba on the eve of the election was only 28%. This figure was a worrying sign, given that Kishida’s approval rating was 14-15% on the eve of his resignation and PMs such as Abe and Suga began their terms with approval ratings of 54% and 51%, respectively. Many analysts assumed before the election results were announced that, in the current situation, the LDP could lose a significant number of seats in the Diet, which did, in fact, happen: the LDP-Komeito coalition found itself in the minority – 215 representatives of the former ruling coalition against 250 opposition diet.
This put the LDP in a difficult position: to gain a majority, it needs, firstly, to maintain the alliance with Komeito; secondly, to enter into a coalition with another right-wing party, one that does not hate the LDP and can put up with the moderate pacifist Komeito (and Komeito, in turn, should agree to cooperate with this party). Considering that the right-wing opposition parties are either too radical or unwilling to cooperate with the LDP in principle, such an alliance will be extremely difficult to enter.
In theory, the third member of the coalition could be either the Democratic Party For the People, which received 28 seats, or the Nippon Ishin Party, which secured 38 mandates (the leader of the latter, however, stated on October 27 that he was not considering cooperation with the LDP). At the same time, the opposition remains disunited: among its representatives are ultra-right groups that do not support the LDP-Komeito alliance because of its half-measures on security and militarization. Some support the pacifist left-liberal agenda and there are also populists with vague slogans, from whom it is unclear what to expect after they come to power.
Therefore, given the balance of power between the parties and their views, the opposition has little chance of forming a coherent ruling coalition. Based on this, another way out for the LDP and Komeito could be the formation of a minority government. This would limit the power of the coalition, but will still force the opposition to reckon with it.
One way or another, Japan is now in a state of a ‘suspended parliament’, which creates both inconveniences for the LDP-Komeito coalition and threatens the post of PM, who, as a result of his ‘gamble’, may be forced to resign from the office by dissatisfied members of his own party, or may not be approved by the Diet, since the LDP’s biggest rival, the Constitutional Democratic Party that secured 148 votes, is already inciting opposition groups to unite and vote in the elections not for Shigeru Ishiba, but for Yoshihiko Noda, chairman of the Constitutional Democratic Party.
Daniil Romanenko, japanologist, researcher from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
