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Escalation in Lebanon: The Perilous Path to Regional Conflict

Abbas Hashemite, October 12

Recently, Israel has launched massive attacks on the Southern region of Lebanon. More than 1600 people have been killed in these attacks.

Moreover, an enormous migration has also started inside the country due to these Israeli attacks. Israel is using similar tactics to justify these violent attacks on Lebanon, as it did in Gaza. The world is solemnly concerned over Israel’s recurrent attempts to expand this war to the whole Middle Eastern region

The Human Cost of Conflict: Casualties and Civilian Impact

These are Israel’s attempts to directly involve other countries in the region in this war

On 23rd September 2024, Israel launched strikes on Lebanon which resulted in hundreds of deaths, including a huge number of children. Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed pro-Palestine proxy group, observed significant losses in these strikes. It confirmed the death of its senior leader, Ibrahim Aqil, in an Israeli Arial strike in Beirut. Many other important leaders of the group, including Ahmed Wahbi of the Radwan forces of Hezbollah, were also killed in these new Israeli strikes. In July this year, Fuad Shukr, the right-hand man of Hassan Nasrallah, was also killed in Israeli airstrikes on Beirut.

Israel launched its recent attacks after a series of explosions of pagers was observed in Lebanon, leading to dozens of deaths and thousands of injured people. Israel is believed to be behind these cyberattacks in Lebanon. These frequent attacks have caused panic throughout a nation already exhausted by almost a year of chaos and conflict. Israel is continuously firing missiles and rockets indiscriminately at Southern Lebanon, claiming to target Hezbollah members. In response, Hezbollah has also launched missile attacks on Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv on 24th September 2024. The first-ever missile attack by Hezbollah on Israel depicts the severity of the escalation between the two sides.

Escalation of Hostilities: Hezbollah’s Response and Regional Implications

The Israeli government had long been attempting to expand the persistent Israel-Hamas war to the whole region and beyond. Previously, it attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in the city of Isfahan. The murder of Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of Hamas’ political bureau, was also allegedly assassinated by Israeli intelligence. There is also a widespread belief that Israel or its allies were behind the death of Former Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. All these moves are considered Israel’s attempts to involve other regional countries in this war directly. However, the prudent policies of the Iranian government and the efforts of different international leaders foiled all the Israeli attempts to achieve this ambition.

These novel attacks by Israel in South Lebanon have increased the devastation of the situation in the region. Leaders from different regional and extra-regional countries, and organizations have condemned these attacks. Rosemary DiCarlo, a senior UN official, has warned that the region is at the brink of such a massive conflict that could “dwarf” the devastation observed in the Middle East so far. Israeli Airforce has even dropped bombs on people attending a funeral in Tayr Felsay, Lebanon, killing 10 people. The civilian population is highly affected due to these attacks. Israel is using similar arguments to justify its indiscriminate bombing of Southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, addressing the civilian population of Lebanon, “Israel’s war is not with you, it’s with Hezbollah. For too long Hezbollah has been using you as human shields.” However, this argument is merely a farce. Israel’s historical record demonstrates that it intends to commit genocide against Muslims in all the Middle Eastern region.

Global Responses: International Condemnation and the Call for Peace

These ferocious Israeli bombings on Southern Lebanon have increased the chances of a wider regional war. These Israeli attacks in Lebanon could result in a nightmare for not only the Middle Eastern countries but for the whole world, including Israel, as well. The whole Middle Eastern region could plunge into full-scale war if Israel initiates a ground invasion of Lebanon or extend its aerial strikes in the country. The Israeli government should not take Hezbollah for granted as it is not a mere proxy organization like Hamas. Hezbollah operates as a state within the state. It has much more sophisticated arsenals as compared to Hamas. Moreover, being a Shiite group, Hezbollah enjoys support from Iran and holds strategic depth in the region through its allies in Yemen and Iraq.

Hezbollah is much stronger resistance group than Hamas. Numerous videos and reports of Israeli soldiers crying and screaming after facing Hamas have already resulted in Israel’s insult around the globe. Israel’s recent ground invasion of Lebanon will only lead to greater discontent with Israel’s military. As per military experts, the group possesses around 120000 rockets and 200000 missiles. Moreover, the group is believed to have 30000 to 50000 fighters. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s top leader, stated last year that the organization has over, 100000 reserved fighters. On the other hand, the Israeli military has already strained in its war against Hamas, its economy is also witnessing the steepest decline in years. However, the Netanyahu administration seems adamant about plunging the region into a wider war to extend its government and avoid corruption charges against the Israeli Prime Minister. Leaders from around the world are strictly condemning these Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon’s civilian population. Antonio Guterres, the UN Chief, has condemned these Israeli attacks. He stated, “Gaza is a non-stop nightmare that threatens to take the entire region with it. Look no further than Lebanon.” He also said, “Lebanon is at the brink. The people of Lebanon, the people of Israel, and the people of the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has also condemned the indiscriminate bombing by Israel. It stated, China “firmly supports” Lebanon in safeguarding its sovereignty, security and national dignity and opposes Israel’s indiscriminate attacks against civilians.” Russia, being a superpower in the rapidly rising multipolar world, has also expressed its concerns over the developing situation in the Middle Eastern region. While decrying the indiscriminate bombing in Lebanon, Maria Zakharova said, “Indiscriminate Israeli strikes on residential areas under the pretext that Hezbollah weapons are being stored there led to massive civilian casualties and significant destruction of civilian infrastructure.” She also stated, “Everything possible must be done to prevent the Middle East from plunging into a full-scale armed conflict, the devastating consequences of which will inevitably affect everyone – both in the region and beyond. For its part, Russia is ready for coordination with regional and global partners to avoid” such a catastrophic scenario. The United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have also demonstrated their concerns over the situation. However, the world, especially Israel’s allies, needs to take practical steps to avoid a major regional catastrophe that could engulf the whole world.

 

Abbas Hashemite – is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist, exclusively for “New Eastern Outlook

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