On October 1, former Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan Shigeru Ishiba was appointed as the 102nd Prime Minister of Japan.
Who is Shigeru Ishiba?
After his election as a member of parliament in 1986, Ishiba served as Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and, under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Secretary General of the Conservative Party. Ishiba was elected head of the LDP after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would not extend his term for another two years. Although Ishiba had no faction of his own, he made it to the runoff election after no other candidate won a majority of votes from party members. In the first round of voting Shigeru Ishiba trailed behind Sanae Takaichi, a hardliner and protégée of Shinzo Abe. But in the runoff, Ishiba won the majority of votes.
Ishiba has long been an outsider in the ruling party, often clashing with influential hardliners such Shinzo Abe. He promised to lead the party out of its crisis, and despite having relatively little support managed to maintain his leadership.
South Korean media have focused on certain specific aspects of the new Japanese leader’s personality.
As a Christian, Ishiba has kept his distance from visiting Yasukuni Shrine, where Class A war criminals are interred, and has been reticent to speak out about sensitive aspects of Japan’s past, including the issues of “comfort women” and forced labor during colonial times.
Moreover, he has publicly recognized that Japan’s Pacific War was a “war of aggression,” stating that Japan should acknowledge its responsibility for the war and “recognize its history of colonial rule and aggression.”
Ishiba expressed hope for “a return to the friendly bilateral ties that existed under the governments of Keizo Obuchi and Kim Dae-jung in the late 1990s.” In a book published on the eve of the election, he wrote that relations between South Korea and Japan have “greatly improved” thanks to the efforts of South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, and Japan should seize the opportunity to further develop bilateral ties. He has also criticized the Kishida cabinet for failing to make tangible progress in relations despite persistent efforts and concessions by the Yoon administration.
He has, however, taken a tough stance on territorial issues, such as the Dokdo Islands, and maintains the position that the issue of Japan’s payment of reparations was definitively settled under the 1965 Korea-Japan Claims Settlement Agreement.
As defense minister, Ishiba called for a revision of Japan’s constitution to allow for the establishment of national Armed Forces and supported the creation of a multilateral security cooperation system in Asia.
Based on this, some ROK experts and diplomats have gone so far as to describe Ishiba as “pro-Korean.”
First steps, first contacts
In his first keynote speech to the Japanese parliament, Shigeru Ishiba prioritized security and foreign policy issues. He condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine and criticized the DPRK, calling Pyongyang’s continued development of its nuclear missile program a direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions and a threat to the security of the entire international community.
Ishiba expressed confidence that the Japan-US alliance is the “main axis” of Japan’s foreign policy and the foundation of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, and criticized China’s actions in the East and South China Seas, accusing Beijing of trying to “forcefully and unilaterally change the status quo.” Nevertheless, he also intends to develop “strategic and mutually beneficial relations” with China.
Regarding Russia, Ishiba said the Japanese government remains committed to “resolving the territorial issue and concluding a peace treaty” despite the current difficulties. However, he also emphasized that the Japanese government would continue putting sanctions pressure on Russia and supporting Ukraine.
As for relations with Washington and Seoul, he recognized that each country has its own national interests, and that international relations and foreign policy achievements should be based on those interests.
The new Prime Minister stressed the importance of Japan’s relations with the US and South Korea, while emphasizing that every summit meeting should have a clear goal. Building trust and friendship between countries is important, but it is necessary to understand in advance what the negotiations are for.
Such statements did not go without support from South Korea. A senior official of the South Korean presidential administration said that the country “will continue to work closely with the new Japanese Cabinet to ensure the positive flow of South Korea-Japan relations.” The Foreign Ministry source also expressed optimism that the two neighbors would keep communication channels open to maintain “positive bilateral momentum.”
On October 2, 2024, Yoon Seok-yeol and Shigeru Ishiba had a 15-minute phone conversation. The main outcome of the conversation was an agreement to develop and strengthen bilateral cooperation, as well as trilateral cooperation with the participation of the United States. In addition, the two countries agreed on coordinated responses to “provocations” by the DPRK, and agreed on the need to continue cooperation on human rights issues in the DPRK, including on the topics of prisoners of war and abductees.
The two leaders decided to hold a face-to-face meeting in the near future. This will take place in Laos, on the margins of the next annual regional meeting of ten ASEAN member states and their dialogue partners. In addition, President Yoon will meet with Ishiba during the APEC summit in Peru in November.
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul also held his first telephone talks with Japan’s new Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and suggested that the two sides work closely together to enhance cooperation. Iwaya also described the relationship between Seoul and Tokyo as very important and said that close bilateral cooperation will not only be of benefit to both countries, but also help enhance regional stability and prosperity. The two governments agreed to speed up preparations for events dedicated to the 60th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea next year.
The South Korean government also congratulated Ishiba on his appointment as Prime Minister of Japan. Seoul hopes to develop a forward-looking and future-oriented partnership in all areas, including security, economy and global issues. South Korea sees its relationship with Japan as a partnership based on shared values, the pursuit of peace and global prosperity.
In the media, most analyses have been optimistic: the two countries will continue to work together to improve relations in general, even though they will have to work hard to resolve their historical disputes.
However, there are pessimists too, and according to them, it is premature to assume that Ishiba’s leadership will bring about dramatic changes. Firstly, because Ishiba’s dovish stance is not the dominant view in the Liberal Democrat Party, which is dominated by right-wing conservatives. Secondly, in addition to these ideological differences there is also his status as a political outsider. Thirdly, while Ishiba is more soft-spoken on some issues, he has taken a firm stance on the contentious issue of the Dokdo Islands, arguing that they are Japanese territory. Ishiba also opposes any further compensation for Koreans used as forced labor during World War II, arguing that the issue was resolved by a 1965 agreement between Japan and Korea. Fourthly, his rhetoric regarding an Asian version of NATO and the revitalization of Japan’s military is often interpreted as an aggressive prelude to a campaign of military expansion in the region.
In this context, even Japan’s new Foreign Minister, Takeshi Iwaya, has refused to comment on Shigeru Ishiba’s proposal for the deployment of US nuclear weapons in the region and for their “joint possession.” Iwaya has reiterated that the Japanese government adheres to the three non-nuclear principles and has no plans to revise them, and that the idea of an “Asian version of NATO” is a promising idea that will be considered in the future.
In conclusion, while the new Prime Minister’s position is close to the views of South Korea’s President and the hopes of the South Korean public, it represents a window of opportunity rather than a guarantee of a rapprochement.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, part of the China and Modern Asia Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
