During the first Cold War, the geopolitical term “Domino Theory” came to be understood as a fear tool to disseminate the idea that Communism would spread like dominoes falling if left unchecked. Ironically, a domino effect is underway in the world.
The 21st-century version of the spread of ideas and ideologies is neither communism nor capitalism. Today, the dominoes are not rigid but represent a cry for multipolarism. One look at a map and Russia and China’s most recent geopolitical moves, and a 10th grader can reach the same conclusion.
While the United States and most of Europe struggle to hold their countries/alliances together, nations of other regions are coalescing along more and more ideological, business, and cultural lines. Looking at the geopolitical situation from a realistic perspective, be it geographic, economic, or ideological, the future multipolar world is inevitable. Unless the deep state in the United States, the UK, and the European Union are ready for WW3 and mutually assured mass destruction (MAD), the current and future BRICS nations will effectively surround the West. Containment, such as that applied to China and Russia by the US and its allies, will flip in the opposite direction.
The Map Does Not Lie
Let’s start with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most recent visits to North Korea and Mongolia and the understanding agreed to with Azerbaijan. The Western mainstream media attempts to cast a dim light on these geopolitical moves, but this is out of desperation to keep hidden from the public just how difficult the Liberal Order’s situation is. Look at a world map, examine trade routes and the whereabouts of the world’s remaining natural resources, and take note. Better still, count the number of people living in once “contained” by US and NATO military and economic power. The dominoes are freefalling.
Mr. Putin’s latest trip to Mongolia is not only about creating the gas corridor from Russia to China, it’s about Mongolia buying huge quantities of the gas to power its industrial revolution. And there’s no doubt Russia will assist and invest in helping Mongolia achieve a greater standard of living for its people and greater status in the newly forming multipolar world. This quote from Putin via Tass News reveals the current Russia/Mongolia modality:
“In recent years, we have been working on a number of new promising economic and industrial projects, including the construction of the Trans-Mongolian gas pipeline connecting Russia and China, works to modernise and increase the performance of the Ulaanbaatar Railway joint venture, the Rosneft Corporation’s fuel supplies for the fuelling complex at the new Chinggis Khaan international airport, and the renovation of TPP-3 in Ulaanbaatar with the participation of INER RAO – Export.”
Now glance at the world map and connect the dots between Russia, Mongolia, North Korea, and China. Except for South Korea and Japan, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s “Pacific Century” never was and never shall be (FP 2011 Clinton). Now, look to Southeast Asia and Mr. Putin signing 15 new agreements with Vietnam. Looking westward, Russia and Cambodia just signed their first military cooperation agreement. Still farther West in Thailand, this key Southeast Asian nation is itching to join the BRICS as well. In neighbouring Myanmar, Russian support is still coveted, and farther South in Malaysia, the title of a recent Bloomberg report says it all. “Malaysian PM Visits Russia as Asian Leaders Defy West Over Putin” tells of coming cooperations in everything from aerospace to advanced tech and financing.
Outlying Partner Lands
Russia/China’s influence is a wave washing Western alliance ideas off the map in Bangladesh. Westward in India, much has been said about Prime Minister Modi’s and Mr. Putin’s relationship, and especially about India’s growing economic power throttled up with cheap Russian oil. Similar headway is being made all across the south, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and, most recently, Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Turkey is being driven farther into Russia’s orbit by conflicts in the Middle East. The Israelis are not doing themselves or anyone else any favors trying to eradicate the Palestinians, once and for all. Even the Carnegie Endowment think tank says, “Shared support for Hamas likely means better diplomatic relations between Moscow and Ankara.” Egypt, the UAE, and Ethiopia have joined the BRICS, and across Africa half the nations on that were once glued to US or European masters are pivoting toward Russia, China, and the others.
In Latin America, Brazil is already a member of the BRICS group, and Venezuela (the world’s richest oil nation) has been bashed by the United States for far too long. Caracas has already established itself as Iran’s gateway to Latin America. Things across the continent have shifted so drastically toward China, Russia, and other aligned nations, United States lawmakers are calling for reinstituting the famous Monroe Doctrine. And this may be the only way the liberal elites can maintain any semblance of life support. Self-contamination could be the only thing that keeps dominoes from dropping on the heads of North America and all of Europe.
Look at Central America recently. Strategically located, Nicaragua recently said, “Russia’s regional platform in all matters.” Already, Russia is establishing a Nuclear Medicine Center with Russian support, and similar cooperations are being discussed with other Latin American partners. Costa Rica, the first country in the region to establish relations with Russia, hosted the final visiting session of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2024) in San Jose, the capital of the republic. It goes on and on and on. Old theories, once thought to be defunct, now come to fruition. I recall something known as “the heartland theory” and an article in 1904 by Halford John Mackinder entitled “The Geographical Pivot of History.”
Mackinder called Afro-Eurasia the “world island” and defined its “heartland” as the area east of the Volga, south of the Arctic, west of the Yangtze, and north of the Himalayas. He contended that because of its strategic location and natural resources, whoever controlled the “heartland” could control the world. Look at American foreign policy since WW2, especially former President Obama’s “Asia shift.” The people standing behind these puppet presidents and prime ministers understand the inevitable. Mackinder was right, and what we’ve been witnessing for generations is a stalling game played by the Western elites. The Heartland is emerging as it should have decades ago. At the same time, what Mackinder referred to as “outlying islands” (N. & S. America) and “offshore islands” (Britain, Japan, etc.) are gradually coming into the orbit of Earth’s heartland. The steamroller driven by the people of these once isolated and compressed nations is about to roll over the old order.
Time for a New World
Let’s face the facts. North America, especially Europe, have depleted themselves to the point that their individual states are nothing more than consumers. Europe is already nothing more than a tourist attraction (more than 10% of GDP already). America will soon be the same (3% now), only able to produce the essential energy necessary to power its domestic economy. The EU, for instance, imported almost 30% of all global goods while exporting only 28% (2022). Most of this was by Germany, which is now on the threshold of economic turmoil. The Germans export more than twice as much as all the other EU nations combined. Imagine what happens when that industrial nation grinds to a halt because of a lack of cheap energy. Oops! On making proxy wars on Russia (and the BRICS).
The heartland, the world island, and an inevitable pivot history. In my country, the people have only one logical (correct) course of action in the face of this shift. Rather than stalling or attempting to create deadly scenarios, we must decide to live within a world system that is not run by empire but by necessity and equitability. America must shift gears to become a leader in other realms and a team player. The same goes for Europe, Latin America, the Middle East (particularly Israel), and Africa. The good future scenario is about authentic (honest) human cooperation. The problem we now face is the illusion. The people of my country and all others have to be informed of the current situation rather than manipulated reality. The world does NOT have unlimited resources underground. Britannia, the German fatherland, nor the Amecian hegemony can steal anymore. We all must pay the same price. The sooner we get to this point, the better off we will all be.
Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller «Putin’s Praetorians» and other books. He writes exclusively for the online magazine «New Eastern Outlook»
