The two leading world powers, the United States and the People’s Republic of China, are the main players in the games over Taiwan. At the same time, the presence of other recently emerging “power centres” is becoming increasingly visible. First of all, Japan and India.
Of these, the former’s relations with Taiwan are now of an ordinary interstate nature. This is also true of Japan’s relations with its “big brother”, the United States. Like Washington, Tokyo has a de facto full-fledged embassy in Taiwan, which at the beginning of this year was given a much clearer name than before – “Taipei Bureau of the Association of Japan-Taiwan Relations”. The renaming, which took place in the presence of officials from both sides, was hailed by Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry as a sign of its intention to further develop bilateral relations.
This is despite Tokyo’s stated respect for the ‘one China’ principle in its relations with Beijing. At every opportunity, however, the American mantra about the need to “maintain stability by preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait” is repeated. In this way, the practical significance of the declaration is nullified.
An extremely important factor contributing to the expansion of Japan’s presence in Taiwan is the positive attitude of the Taiwanese themselves towards the country. Both to the present and to the period 1895-1945 when Taiwan was part of it. This was a consequence of Imperial China’s defeat of Imperial Japan in the (“first”) Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95.
Indirect evidence of Taiwanese sympathy for Japan can be seen in the fact that recent surveys show that only 2.4 per cent of Taiwanese now consider themselves “Chinese“. By contrast, two-thirds of the island’s population identify themselves as “Taiwanese”. Just as they did when they were part of Imperial Japan.
This self-identification of the Taiwanese is facilitated by the local version of “exposing the cult of personality”. For the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party, that “personality” is Chiang Kai-shek. It should be noted, however, that during his openly dictatorial rule (1945-1975), any manifestation of local dissent against the rule of “mainland aliens” was brutally suppressed.
A particularly bloody moment in Taiwan’s post-war history in February 1947, known as “Incident 228“, is regularly revisited by the DPP government. At the end of February this year, a memorial to these events was unveiled near the parliament building in the presence of Taiwan’s prime minister.
Although Japan-Taiwan relations cover all aspects of government-to-government relations, the main component of the relationship is still the trade and economic sphere, the scale of which is impressive. The volume of bilateral trade, which has been growing steadily, has now reached $90 billion. Japan is Taiwan’s third and fourth largest trading partner. The main component of bilateral trade is high-tech products.
The most notable evidence of this was the opening of a plant in Japan on 24 February this year for the production of microchips with a “packing density” of 6 nm. It was built in the city of Kumamoto Prefecture by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world leader in this field, and will be operated by a consortium that includes Japanese industrial giants such as Sony and Toyota.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attended the official commissioning ceremony via video link. William Lai, the newly elected president of Taiwan, spoke highly of the completion of the project. In early February it was reported that an agreement had been signed with TSMC to build a second similar plant (in the same Kumamoto).
The scope and depth of India’s relations with Taiwan are, of course, a far cry from those between Japan and Taiwan. But in recent years, they have gained momentum as part of giving practical meaning to the country’s 30-year-old “Look East” foreign policy concept. At the end of the 1990s, this concept was transformed into the concept of “Acting in the East” (at the initiative of then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton).
The format of these “actions” with regard to Taiwan is still at the level of “probing the ground”. Moreover, they are being carried out by both sides and with the participation of certain eminent persons, such as the current head of world Buddhism.
Recent practical steps towards each other include the signing of a memorandum of understanding in mid-February to attract Indian workers to various sectors of the Taiwanese economy. This is increasingly important for Taiwan, given the de facto depopulation of Taiwan (as well as Japan).
It is noteworthy that the signing of this document took place in New Delhi in the presence of certain representatives of the Indian administration in the premises of the “Economic and Cultural Centre of Taiwan in India”, which the Taipei Times called the “de facto embassy” of the former in the latter. The same Taiwanese “electronics engineers” are “scouting the ground” in India, also with a view to setting up production here.
One cannot help but notice that publications by Indian authors specialising in various fields are appearing with increasing frequency in the Taiwanese press. It is not the first time that Brahma Chellaney has appeared among them. However, this expert can hardly be mentioned “comma by comma”, as he is one of the most authoritative specialists in the field of international politics in general.
It is for this reason that we cannot simply “note in passing” the basic thesis of his recent publication in the Taipei Times, according to which the almost fundamental principle of China’s foreign policy, the inalienable right to own Taiwan, is nothing more than a “myth without any basis”.
In the context of all the above, we would like to reiterate that as the US presence in the Indo-Pacific region (and the world as a whole) declines, the difficulty of India-China relations will be at the top of the list of challenges to maintaining stability here. The long-standing trend of India’s rapprochement with Japan will also contribute to its growing importance. This trend will undoubtedly be confirmed during the forthcoming visit of India’s Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar to Tokyo.
We would like to add that the same factor could become almost the main challenge for Russia’s eastward shift in foreign policy. We will have to work hard to solve the related problems.
Finally, it should be noted that from the end of last year until now Taiwan has been mentioned in some connection with Russia. It is claimed that the Russian Federation is buying nitrocellulose (used in particular in the production of smokeless gunpowder), numerically controlled machine tools and the same chips produced in Taiwan through third countries.
For example, the Taipei Times (citing the Washington Post) reports that a Russian company allegedly bought $20 million worth of CNC machine tools “critical to defence production” from Taiwan last year. In response, Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs promised to “strengthen control” over the export of such products. It should also be noted that two years ago Taiwan joined Western countries in imposing sanctions on Russia.
In general, Taiwan does not occupy the last place in the current complex, constantly aggravating system of relations between the world’s leading powers. And it seems that its importance in this system will continue to grow.
As the saying goes, even a seemingly unnecessary thing can have a price. And for all participants in the current phase of the “Great World Game”.
Vladimir TEREKHOV, an expert on the problems of the Asia-Pacific region, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
