The parliamentary elections to the Knesset, which took place on October 27, 2026, have formally ended. The vote counting is over, and now Israeli parties are preparing for complex coalition negotiations. However, the main question in Israeli politics – who will lead the country – remains unanswered.
Voting Results: Arithmetic That Does Not Add Up to a Government
The opposition bloc, led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his party Yeshar, had to settle for 48 seats. But the real sensation of the campaign was the historic result of the Arab parties: the Joint List and Ra’am together won a record 19 seats. Voter turnout reached almost 78%—the highest since 1999. The result: neither of the two main blocs can form a government on its own, and the Arab parties, which both camps had solemnly promised before the election to keep out of power, found themselves in the position of kingmakers.
The Price of Power: How Netanyahu Used the State to Win
Two weeks before voting day, the chairman of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, issued a ruling that laid bare the mechanics of the incumbent prime minister’s campaign. He found that Benjamin Netanyahu had violated the election propaganda law five times by using state resources and his position as head of government for personal political purposes.
In one instance, Netanyahu posted a video from his visit to an IDF military base in southern Lebanon. Sohlberg determined that footage that actually boosted soldiers’ morale had been cut from the clip, leaving only material that amounted to “bragging” by the government and the prime minister personally. “This is, of course, an election video,” the judge stated, ordering Netanyahu to remove the materials and personally pay court costs of 29,000 shekels. The ruling also stressed that “the video uses the resources of the Government Press Office,” and that access to the military base is an advantage other candidates do not have.
Moreover, in the final hours before the final results were announced, Likud and Netanyahu personally began spreading unsubstantiated accusations that the Arab parties had “stolen” the election, possibly with foreign assistance. The Central Elections Committee was forced to state officially: “Claims of systematic violations of election integrity are baseless.” The opposition viewed this tactic as an attempt to delegitimize the votes of Arab citizens and block any possibility of an alternative coalition.
Three Doors Out of the Deadlock—and All Locked
President Isaac Herzog, who after certification of the results must task one of the leaders with forming a government, faces several scenarios, and each runs into insurmountable political barriers.
Scenario one: a national unity government with Eisenkot. Netanyahu’s circle, according to The Jerusalem Post, is promoting the idea of a coalition in which Eisenkot would become prime minister in the second half of the term under a rotation arrangement, or take a senior ministerial portfolio while Netanyahu remains prime minister. On paper, such an alliance involving Netanyahu, Eisenkot, Bennett, Lapid, and Liberman would yield about 70 seats. However, Eisenkot himself has given no signal whatsoever that he is willing to consider this proposal, and his supporters see joining a Netanyahu government as political suicide after a campaign built on the promise to change power.
Scenario two: a minority government relying on the Arab parties. Arithmetically, the opposition’s 48 seats plus 19 Arab seats make 67—more than the required 61. Street protests outside Eisenkot’s home in Herzliya were held under the slogan **“No Change Without Partnership,”** demanding that the opposition leader reach an agreement with the Arab parties. Tel Aviv MK Amir Badran publicly supported the idea. But an insurmountable wall stands in the way. Avigdor Liberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party won 7 seats, called the Arab parties “terrorist supporters” and categorically rejected both entering a coalition with them and a minority government dependent on their support. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas, whose party had already been in the Bennett-Lapid government, remains the most acceptable figure for cooperation, but even his participation does not remove Liberman’s veto. Eisenkot himself set out four conditions for any partner, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and condemnation of Hamas as a terrorist organization, and concluded: “I don’t see an Arab party that accepts my principles.”
Scenario three: new elections. If no government is formed, Israel will likely go to its fifth election in a few years in early 2027. President Herzog has already said he will do everything possible to avoid this scenario.
What the Street Says and What to Expect Next
Public opinion leaves no room for illusions about Netanyahu’s temporary stay in power. Polls published ahead of the vote consistently showed that about 59% of Israelis did not want to see him as prime minister of the next government—a 27-point gap against him. Even if legally the incumbent prime minister retains authority during coalition negotiations, the political legitimacy of such a “temporary” performance of duties remains extremely low.
In the long term, the 2026 deadlock highlighted a fundamental structural problem in Israel’s political system. Political scientist Ahmed Najjar put it this way: “A state cannot credibly call itself democratic when more than one fifth of its citizens have the right to vote, but the representatives they elect are considered by definition unfit to govern.” Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen put the question even more sharply: “Either continued racism, continued exclusion, and continued supremacy, or a genuine Jewish-Arab partnership.”
Israel has arrived at a point where, for the first time in history, Knesset arithmetic makes the Arab parties an indispensable element of any viable government, but the political culture and mutual vetoes of the leading Jewish parties make that partnership practically impossible. So far, none of the leaders has dared cross that line. The question is no longer who won the election. The question is whether the country is ready for its next government to be built on a fundamentally different formula—or whether it will again choose deadlock.
Muhammad Hamid ad-Din is a well-known Palestinian journalist
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