Beneath the diplomatic protocol of Lula’s recent visit to Washington lay a strategic contest over rare-earth resources, the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, and Brazil’s efforts to leverage geopolitical competition for national advantage ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
From my perspective, the urgency behind the visit was unmistakably geopolitical. Rare earths—those minerals that have become the quiet protagonists of global power struggles—were front and center, especially with Trump’s own high-stakes meeting with Xi Jinping just around the corner. Brazil, for its part, rushed to prepare legislation on rare-earth exploration, eager to have its house in order before coming to the negotiating table with Washington. And Trump seemed intent on evaluating Brazil’s position before facing Xi this week.
Brazil, as Lula stated, was firm on two crucial points. First, no more shipping raw rare earths abroad—any minerals leaving the country must be processed and refined on Brazilian soil. Second, there would be no exclusive club. No single nation will get privileged access to exploration rights. The message was clear: Brazil will not stop doing business with China simply because Washington occasionally demands it, as was the case with 5G technology. Brazil is ready to do business, but on its own terms and with anyone willing to respect those boundaries – affirming its sovereignty.
Domestic Politics: Lula, Bolsonaro, and the October Elections
This visit wasn’t only about diplomatic chess moves. Lula walked into that meeting acutely aware that Brazil’s October presidential election is being shaped as much by international alliances as by anything happening at home. The symbolic weight of who gets to stand side by side with Washington is not lost on any of the political camps competing for power in Brasília – in this case, Bolsonaro’s son.
For months, the Bolsonaro camp has done its best to claim an exclusive friendship with Trump and the MAGA movement. Flávio Bolsonaro—the family’s presidential candidate—has made frequent trips to the U.S., popping up at conservative events like CPAC and reinforcing the message that only a Bolsonaro can restore Brazil’s so-called special relationship with Trump’s Washington. It’s a narrative that’s hard to miss, especially for those of us following the twists and turns of Brazil’s domestic political drama.
Lula’s visit, in many ways, felt like a countermove. By being welcomed at the White House in a surprisingly warm setting, Lula showed Brazilian voters that the country’s ties with Washington aren’t the sole domain of the Bolsonaros. In Brasília, the mood was almost one of quiet relief—a diplomatic win, if not a landslide, especially since Lula managed to sidestep the kind of awkward or humiliating moments some had braced for with Trump at the helm.
Of course, none of this means Trump has turned his back on the Bolsonaristas. Far from it. Pro-Bolsonaro voices still carry weight inside Trump’s camp—especially among those on the nationalist right. After the meeting, as political analyst Guilherme Casarões pointed out, Trump could, at any moment, throw his support behind Bolsonaro-aligned candidates or reach for familiar pressure tactics with Brazil. With Trump, as any observer can attest, stability is never a given.
Other issues were discussed during the meeting, including trade and the ending application of the Magnitsky Act against some Brazilian authorities, including members of the judiciary who condemned Bolsonaro (yes, it’s the Monroe Doctrine in practice!). Sensitive themes such as the Brazilian electoral process itself and Pix — Brazil’s free instant payment system, which Trump views with suspicion for reducing the market share of American financial giants such as Visa and Mastercard — were left aside.
Latin America and the Regional Dimension
One little nugget that made the rounds in Brazilian diplomatic circles: Secretary of State Marco Rubio was nowhere to be seen, off in the Vatican on papal business. Pure coincidence, perhaps, but in Brasília, his absence was quietly welcomed—it helped keep the meeting’s atmosphere less ideological than it might have been otherwise.
To be frank, Brazilian diplomats have long been uncomfortable with Rubio, seeing him as too hawkish, too ideological, and a bit too nostalgic for Cold War confrontations in Latin America. In Brasília, Rubio stands as a symbol of the kind of black-and-white, friend-or-foe simplistic thinking that progressive governments find unnerving—even as more conservative regimes in Latin America embrace it.
Against this backdrop, one moment stood out for its sheer symbolism: Trump reportedly assured Lula that the U.S. is not considering an invasion of Cuba. That single statement carried serious weight for Brazil and much of Latin America. At a time when U.S. foreign policy often feels like a moving target, Trump’s words helped ease regional anxiety about sudden escalations in the Caribbean.
Washington’s view of Latin America these days is colored by hard-nosed geopolitics—competition with China, migration dilemmas, organized crime, energy security, and the ever-present question of who controls what in global supply chains. From this perspective, keeping Brazil—the region’s economic heavyweight and largest democracy—on talking terms isn’t just nice diplomacy. It’s a strategic must, even when the ideological vibes don’t quite match up.
Rare Earths, China, and the Emerging Geopolitical Dispute
Rare earths were the beating heart of this meeting. Brazil sits on some of the planet’s largest reserves of these minerals, vital ingredients for everything from advanced tech and military hardware to batteries and AI. In today’s world, whoever controls rare earths has a seat at any table of power.
Lula’s timing wasn’t accidental, either. With Trump preparing to meet Xi Jinping, the rare earths question loomed large. China, after all, dominates not just extraction but the all-important refining stage—and Beijing hasn’t hesitated to use this as leverage against Trump’s transactional tactic. Washington, meanwhile, is on the hunt for ways to try to free itself from this dependency, and Brazil’s resources are the obvious prize.
Brazil, for its part, knows exactly what it has—and it’s playing its hand cleverly. Lula’s administration doesn’t want to get pinned down by either Washington or Beijing. Instead, the message from Brasília is: everyone’s welcome at the table, but the rules will be set in Brazil.
That’s why Lula’s team insists: refining and industrial work must happen at home. The bigger vision is to finally push Brazil up the strategic value chain, moving from just shipping raw minerals to becoming a real player in high-tech manufacturing and industry.
So, this trip wasn’t just another handshake in the diplomatic journey of Lula. It was a signal that the world is changing and that middle powers like Brazil are learning to use the U.S.-China rivalry to boost their leverage, build up their industries, and stay relevant on the global stage.
In the end, Lula emerged from Washington intact and even with domestic political gains. While this meeting won’t turn the region’s geopolitics upside down overnight, it sent an unmistakable message: Brazil is ready to sit at every table and keep its options open, especially as the world grows more divided and unpredictable.
Ricardo Martins – Doctor of Sociology, specialist in European and international politics as well as geopolitics
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