Meanwhile, pursuing missions such as internal solidarity and managing relations between the north and south can help unity.
The current crisis in Yemen simultaneously includes political, economic, social, and security aspects that reinforce each other. Yemen has many different actors, and both internal and external groups can affect the future of division or unity. The main parties of the conflict in Yemen include forces, political groups, institutions, ideologies, and numerous sects. Zaidis constitute approximately 40% of the population, and the Houthi movement, there is no northern force comparable to Ansarullah or Houthi forces.
In the military field, the Houthis, with strategic infrastructure and warehouses, anti-ship missiles, and the production of weapons, are one of the main actors in Yemen in any division or unification of the country.
The continuity of the Houthi (Ansarullah) government has strengthened their position. Their demands include the liberation of assets, the provision of minimum services and the maintenance of support networks, the lifting of sanctions and the Saudi-led blockade, compensation for war damages, and a fundamental change in Yemen’s political structure.
Southern Yemen is a strategic region due to its two-thirds of the country’s area and proximity to the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea. But the multiplicity of actors in this area is evident. In 2017, the Southern Transitional Council was established.
The Transitional Council of the South does not represent the majority of votes in the South, but it is an important supporter of the division of Yemen. In fact, according to the separatists of South Yemen, it has lost its existence as a country, and it is very important to recognize the right of the people of South Yemen to determine their destiny.
On April 7, 2022, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the (former) president of Yemen, formed the Presidential Leadership Council and transferred all the powers to the council.
In fact, although the Presidential Council is a block of forces to end political conflicts between the parties, the goals of the members of the Leadership Council are different.
Despite extensive support at the regional and international levels, such as the United Nations Security Council, there are challenges such as the lack of consolidation of unity and the existence of internal differences, the existence of political crises, and economic and social issues and how to strengthen the national currency.
Also, other items such as the formation of a joint security and military committee, the integration of the armed forces, the integration of independent military organizations, the type of survival of the presidential council, the fight against terrorism, the balance of representation in the government, the mobilization of more international support, the continuation of the ceasefire, etc., are essential for the unity of the country.
In the meantime, al-Qaeda* in southern Yemen is more dangerous than ISIS*, with several thousand militants in its ranks in Marib, Abin, and Shabwa. Eleven years of conflict have divided Yemen into many parts; there are now many distinct governments and authorities in Yemen.
The political structure of the Houthis and the political structure of Aden (government) have created parallel political systems of executive branches, ministries, parliaments, separate news agencies, etc., that diplomats and non-governmental organizations interact with. This approach is a kind of indirect division of the country. Involved in a humanitarian crisis, Yemen is the poorest Arab country and one of the least developed countries in the world.
The decline in oil and gas activity, the erosion of infrastructure, widespread poverty, malnutrition, the spread of diseases, the displacement of more than four million people, the existence of two central banks in Sanaa and Aden, distinct economic policies, and economic unity have weakened.
Although it seems that two of the three main sides in the war in Yemen support the unity of Yemen, the groups that want the separation of the southern provinces are moving based on the abolition of the country’s unity.
In recent months, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), led by Aidros al-Zubaidi, unveiled a constitutional declaration to establish a “state of Southern Yemen.” A two-year transitional period, a referendum on southern independence, and a roadmap for the establishment of a “state with Aden as its capital and the borders of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen” institutionalize the steps towards secession.
The federal structure accepted by all parties may be able to weaken the secession of the South and solve the problem of concentration.
Otherwise, if we witness the inability of the United Nations to solve the peace process and a permanent ceasefire, the continuation of a broader conflict, and the strengthening of Al-Qaeda* and ISIS*, we should expect a model similar to the disintegration of Somalia.
Recent developments
In December, the separatist forces of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) quickly seized control of two of Yemen’s largest provinces, Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra.
Then, in early January 2026, the governor of Yemen’s Hadhramaut province, with support from Saudi Arabia and militias known as the “Homeland Shield,” overthrew the STC militias.
Clashes between southerners and Yemeni government forces have also increased, and tensions between Yemeni leaders and the Presidential Leadership Council have increased. Many in the internationally recognized government accuse the southerners of “undermining” the government’s legitimacy.
In fact, apart from the unique social and religious traditions and identities in Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra, the internationally recognized government is fragmented and geographically limited,
The Presidential Leadership Council has been unable to exercise effective governance since 2022. Despite the heterogeneous composition of the Presidential Leadership Council, and the independent political and military trajectory of its members and factions, there is a risk of establishing a kind of “practical separation” of parallel centers of power in the south.
Outlook
Some in the West see a transitional agreement brokered by regional powers and supported by international support and an agreed peaceful separation as a less risky option.
With a decade of civil war, several failed peace processes, and ongoing humanitarian crises, the concept of a united Yemen has become more imperfect.
In contrast the regional and international stage, actors such as Russia are also engaging with various Yemeni factions, calling for a strengthened UN role in Yemeni affairs to achieve lasting stability in southern Yemen and to hold a comprehensive Yemeni dialogue to achieve a comprehensive political solution or the formation of an inclusive government and the unity of Yemen.
The South remains a mosaic of identities, histories, and economic interests. Therefore, holding an inclusive conference with the participation of all currents and components of southern Yemen for “just” solutions to the southern Yemen issue can help Yemeni unity.
Recently, the Yemeni government and the Houthis announced that they had reached an agreement that includes the release of about three thousand prisoners and abductees.
Also, Saudi Arabia’s success in reducing divergence with Ansarullah is a kind of revival of relations between Riyadh and Sanaa. In fact, reducing the political and economic gap between northern and southern Yemen can make the process of Yemeni unity more accessible.
*– Terrorist organisation banned in Russia
Samyar Rostami, а political observer and senior researcher in international relations
Follow new articles on our Telegram channel
