Are Russia and China, the BRICS, willing to continue to let Trump redraw the ‘mappa mundi’ according to his own exclusive interests? Or is it time to see a real alternative to US hegemony take shape?
The kidnapping of a foreign president in violation of international law on the spurious charge of drug trafficking is as credible as the episode of the ‘weapons of mass destruction in Iraq’, given that Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, most of which, due to its density and characteristics, can only be refined, curiously enough, in the US.
The supposed fight against drug trafficking can only fool the distracted or uninformed. Just a month ago, Donald Trump himself granted a presidential pardon to drug trafficker and former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, who was serving a 45-year sentence for smuggling 400 tonnes of cocaine into the US. The elections in the Central American country and support for candidate Nasry Asfura, from the same National Party as Orlando Hernández, were part of the agreement that brought the right wing back to Tegucigalpa. An important regional ally for Trump.
Venezuela is a giant in terms of natural resources, one of the richest countries in the world. It is not just oil. Agriculture, fisheries, coffee, and meat in abundance can all be commoditised. Like Argentina, already in the North American sphere, the US needs to insert all this wealth into the highly speculative global financial system controlled by the dollar, in the face of the growing threat of alternatives within the BRICS.
Although the future of Venezuela, which for now keeps the Chavistas and the military in power, is unclear, this adventure, entirely led by the War Department, could spark tensions and even civil confrontation in the Caribbean country. The precedents of Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, all countries illegally attacked by the US, have resulted in terrible developments, with consequences in Europe, not to mention the Middle East and Central Asia, which are still being felt. Latin America must prepare for very difficult times.
It is clear that the Delta Force operation had internal saboteurs, as this was the only way Trump could have managed to kidnap Maduro. Otherwise, he would have had to leave through the back door of the large military apparatus he kept in Caribbean waters for more than two months without achieving the regime change he promised. Now we must pay attention to the extent to which the current Venezuelan leaders are willing to cooperate.
We must also question what future this renewed Monroe Doctrine – whose ideologue is in fact Secretary of State Marco Rubio, guided by an almost messianic fixation – holds for Caribbean countries such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and Colombia, which are hostile, and even for the two largest countries in Latin America, both of which are not aligned with Washington’s current guidelines: the giants Brazil and Mexico, long under US watch.
We are entering uncharted territory. How will the governments and populations of the region react to this blatant violation of the sovereignty of one of their most relevant countries? Will there be a left-right social divide in different nations, including Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Ecuador, which are currently allies, in a region that is already immensely polarised? How should Europe respond, particularly Spain, with its immense historical and cultural ties and responsibilities to the region? Venezuela is much closer to Spain than Ukraine, for example.
Germany, one of the main targets of the original Monroe Doctrine and still with important interests in the region, responded timidly and in English (why not Spanish?) via a tweet from its Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who accused Maduro of having “led his country into ruin. The most recent election was rigged. Like many other countries, we have therefore not recognized his presidency. Maduro has played a problematic role in the region. His country to ruin […] has played a problematic role in the region”, instead of condemning the illegal action of the US. How long is Germany willing to play this role on the international stage and remain under US domination as a geopolitical dwarf, pretending that its interests are the same as those of Washington?
Trump is betting everything on the Western Hemisphere, where he sees his influence threatened. Obviously, China’s expansion, with a series of infrastructure projects and investments in South America, has been the main reason for recent events. The Russian military presence is another. The expansion of the BRICS terrifies the American elite, and it was known that the US would not give up exercising force to ensure dominance in ‘its backyard.’
Now, Trumpism, with so many ramifications around the world, is already calling for the heads of Ortega, Petro, Lula, and Sheinbaum. Senator Lindsey Graham even wished that Trump would do the same to Cuba: “I hope that by 2026, we will [only] have allies in our backyard.”
Washington clearly does not calculate all the variables of this act, because it still feels exceptional and immune to the consequences of its actions. If the wind changes, what prevents any other power with the means to do so from doing the same in any other scenario? This is what all those who rejoice in this serious precedent should ask themselves.
Trump then said he needs Greenland, another promise already known but now reaffirmed with more seriousness. The Danes can continue to claim that they are ‘allies’ of the US, but that will not change anything in the White House’s plans. ‘For national security reasons,’ Trump argued. The Russians and Chinese are taking over the Arctic waterways, and once again the US feels threatened. Now the US’s problem is no longer just with the ‘third world.’ Uncle Sam bluntly admits that the alliance with Europe has always been instrumental until the day he needed its resources. That day has come. If Europe wants to insist on imagining Russia as an enemy, it can no longer continue to consider the US as an ally given the gravity of the situation.
As we have already seen in the shameful episode in Gaza and with Israel’s frivolous attacks on Iran and Qatar, international law is a chimera. It is only there to adorn and give an air of seriousness that no one takes seriously anymore, or to justify sanctions or restrictions on free trade when the interests of the US or its allies are at stake. In other words, it is useless to the vast majority of the world. But there is also no counterweight to the US capable of establishing a global alternative.
Another line of thought would take us to the arena of geopolitical intrigue and behind-the-scenes negotiations, about which we know very little. Are Russia and China, the BRICS, willing to continue to let Trump redraw the mappa mundi according to his own exclusive interests? Or is it time to see a real alternative to US hegemony take shape?
Ricardo Nuno Costa—geopolitical expert, writer, columnist, and editor-in-chief of geopol.pt
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