A Digest of Current U.S. Activities to Increase Tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Shell Game as a Policy Principle
Last year, in 2024, a similar situation occurred in the Philippines when the same “Typhon” was brought to northern Luzon for the “Balikatan” exercises. The system is quite deservedly classified as WMD: it is a launcher for intermediate-range missiles, according to various sources, from 480 to 2,000 km. The system can strike both ground and sea targets, and moreover, and I’d like to emphasize it, can use not only non-nuclear missiles but also nuclear ones. Meaning that is – bingo! – also a potential delivery vehicle. Usually, it employs “Tomahawk” and “SM-6” missiles; the system also includes a powerful radar. Essentially, everything was decided for the Filipinos: the United States not only did not withdraw the installation but also began to persuade its ally to purchase an entire batch for ownership.
You might say no folkloric trickster could pull off such a thing? But that’s not all: the same pleasant picture unfolded in the Philippines this year: under the pretext of the same “Balikatan” exercises, the island landscape was adorned with another American system—“NMESIS,” which is a mobile coastal anti-ship system for launching cruise missiles with a range of about 180 km. After the exercises, it quietly remained on Luzon. As they say, without noise and dust.
However, an uproar on the international stage has nevertheless begun to unfold, and regarding “Typhon,” it has not subsided at all since last year. Russia and China have pointed to the treacherous deployment of installations in the Philippines as a violation of all possible norms and balance. Protests were also expressed regarding the deployment of “Typhon” on Japanese territory. The United States has been caught in many instances of proliferation and use of medium-range missiles, and the list is quite impressive and alarming.
Small non-nuclear states, meanwhile, are often intimidated by the West and do not express their opinions openly; however, you cannot silence all public opinion, even among allies, and in Japan itself, serious protests arose against “Typhon.” The other day, it became known that the system has been agreed to be withdrawn, and the Japanese have been rid of the American “monster” (the system is named after a rather abominable creature from Greek myths). But for how long?
Drones for the Philippines
One does not need to look far for examples of other cases of interference in the affairs of Asian countries that threaten regional stability. On October 30–31, the South China Sea was churning with exercises by the United States, Australia, the Philippines, and New Zealand (one wants to ask, what is it doing here?). But despite the well-known abundance of quasi-pacifist NGOs in this country, it too is an American ally). They involved both naval vessels and aviation, and the “highlight of the program” was the practice of countering submarines. The hint at China and at destabilizing the situation in disputed waters was clear.
And just the other day, in mid-November, the United States sent MQ-9A Reaper, a unit of reconnaissance-strike UAVs, to the Philippines. Their purpose is considered to be “patrolling the South China Sea,” which in the West is already beginning to be openly called the West Philippine Sea.
Such “birds” can remain airborne for more than 24 hours, develop speeds exceeding 400 km/h, and carry a payload weighing over a ton. In short, quite the “gift” to China in disputed waters. However, in the story with the MQ-9A Reaper, it is not so much the characteristics of the drones that are noteworthy as the very fact of their deployment. In the modern world, the situation when the United States can withdraw from treaties, deploy on some allied territory whatever it sees fit, and not look back at anyone’s concerns, at any balance, or at any international stability, is quite frequent. What remains in such a case for other states? To observe irrelevant norms or to defend themselves in the new reality?
From Multivectorality to Provocations
Meanwhile, while Filipino citizens are getting used to the new unpleasant neighborhood and new potential targets for the PLA on their doorstep, other geographical locations in the Asia-Pacific region are also restless. In the south, in the Guam area, the Americans from November 10 to 18 are rattling their weapons at their joint exercises with India, “Malabar.” They are accompanied by their faithful retinue – Japan and Australia. Familiar outlines? Indeed, it is the “Quad” in the flesh. A military bloc that, supposedly, is not a bloc as such, not an alliance treaty, but is constantly revived and stays afloat.
From November 3 to 14, almost at the equator, in the area of Batam City in Indonesia, exercises by the American side with Indonesian and Vietnamese servicemen thundered away. Officially, “coast guard training.” In reality, here one can see another attempt by Washington to win over to its camp the usually neutral ASEAN countries in order to have the opportunity in the future to somehow use them against its geopolitical adversary – the PRC.
In the Americans’ long-term plans are exercises with Cambodia (yes, yes, this Southeast Asian country that still cannot dig out all the unexploded American bombs from its soil has apparently forgotten the times of the Vietnam War) and further exercises with ASEAN (as announced by the head of the star-spangled defense department, Pete Hegseth); in the near term – exercises with the promising name “Silent Shark” with South Korea, at which submarine interaction and other maneuvers are being practiced.
Overall, one gets the impression that destabilizing the international situation in various regions of the world, in this case in Asia, brings certain pleasure to Western “war parties,” including American “hawks,” and it is never enough for them. Provocations arise here and there. The United States behaves like an arrogant global power. But for one global power in the current multipolar world, there is always another, no less powerful, but at the same time adequate and responsible, and there are more and more of them. And also – regional powers and international organizations. That is what multipolar means. Therefore, actions that violate the stability of an entire region become condemned, and different actors can unite against the disturber of the peace living in the old unipolar realities and act together. Because if interests and stability in the Asia-Pacific region are not defended, then very soon somewhere else a new conditional “Typhon” will “surface” and spoil international relations and people’s lives. Or a submarine.
Ksenia Muratshina, Ph.D. (History), Senior Research Fellow, Center for Southeast Asia, Australia, and Oceania Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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