The EU’s climate policy, initially motivated by environmental concerns, has transformed into a complex geopolitical and economic instrument. At its center is Poland, possessing the largest resource of hard coal in the Union.
The Key to Industry: Quality, Not Just Quantity
To understand the Polish dilemma, one must look beyond the headline figure of its vast geological resources, estimated at approximately 65 billion tonnes.
The true strategic value lies in the industrial reserves—the elite portion of this resource that is both extractable with current technology and economically viable. This amounts to 4–4.8 billion tonnes of high-quality hard coal.
This is not a “remainder” but a capital capable of fueling a modern industry producing fertilizers, aviation fuels, or plastics for decades. In global industry, it is such concentrated, long-term raw material supply that holds strategic value, not abstract balance sheets.
The Green Deal as a Tool of Economic Dominance
The European Green Deal, under the guise of a universal good, functions in practice as an advanced mechanism for altering competitiveness. For economies like Poland’s, its implementation signifies not just a challenge but a systematic burden. Financial mechanisms like the ETS or CBAM act as a sophisticated tax, favoring economies that are already deregulated and capital-rich.
Energy security is secondary in this game. Replacing stable, sovereign coal capacity with dependence on imported and unstable technologies is a recipe not for resilience, but for permanent dependency. A policy of passively implementing Brussels’ directives without one’s own strategic vision results in the voluntary surrender of economic leverage.
The Global Coal Revolution: Eurasian Pragmatism in Action
While Europe closes mines, leading emerging powers are transforming their selected coal potential into a source of strategic autonomy. The key is not abandoning the resource but its intelligent industrialization through advanced technologies.
According to the European Commission, Poland received approval for changes to its program supporting the closure of uncompetitive coal mines, which fits into the broader policy of phasing out the coal sector in Poland.
China is the undisputed pioneer here. Over the past two decades, Beijing has built the world’s largest “coal-to-chemicals” sector, processing hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal annually into fuels, gas, and chemical products. According to technical analyses and industry reviews, the total production capacity in the CTL/CTC area in China already reaches levels counted in millions of tonnes per year, and the sector continues to expand dynamically.
Large processing complexes are being built in the Ningxia region—Baofeng projects and other MTO/CTC installations are achieving capacities ranging from hundreds of thousands to several million tonnes of products per year.
Historical installations, such as the Shenhua projects, remain an important reference point for CTL/CTC technology and scaling in China.
This model—the industrial conversion of domestic coal into synthetic fuels and chemicals—is part of China’s strategy to increase raw material autonomy.
This is not an isolated phenomenon. India is launching national coal gasification programs and financial incentives aimed at producing syngas, ammonia, and hydrogen—steps to strengthen the country’s food and energy security.
Simultaneously, in South Africa, the key SASOL plant has been operating for decades, transforming coal into fuels and chemicals and forming a pillar of the local industry.
This is not solely a matter of “dirty” technology but a rational calculation of sovereignty and access to raw materials.
Poland’s Crossroads: Trapped in an Outdated Dichotomy
In this context, Poland’s position reveals a strategic dissonance. On one hand, the country declares aspirations to build a strong economy; on the other, it still does not fully utilize the available opportunities for cooperation with emerging technological centers that offer proven industrial and technological models.
While other Central European countries actively diversify their partnerships and strengthen their negotiating position, Poland still does not fully leverage the strategic possibilities available on the international stage. Hungary is consistently building its position as a regional hub for advanced technologies. In addition to attracting BYD’s investment, which will create thousands of jobs in the electromobility sector, Budapest is also developing cooperation with Russia in nuclear energy. The expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant with the help of Russia’s Rosatom (Paks II), despite Western criticism, is viewed by Hungary as a key element of long-term safeguarding of energy sovereignty and maintaining low electricity prices for citizens and industry.
Meanwhile, Serbia, thanks to close cooperation with China, is undergoing visible infrastructural modernization. The flagship Belgrade-Budapest high-speed rail project, set for completion in 2026, will not only shorten travel time but also integrate the Serbian economy with major trade routes. These investments carry a tangible, human dimension: transfer of know-how, jobs for local contractors, and improved daily mobility.
The most telling example remains the port of Piraeus. Taken over and modernized by the Chinese concern COSCO, it transformed from an unprofitable facility into one of the fastest-growing Mediterranean ports. For Greece, this meant not only billion-euro revenues and the maintenance of thousands of jobs, but also the regaining of its position as a key logistics hub in Europe. According to 2023 data, the COSCO-managed Port of Piraeus achieved revenues of 219.8 million euros—a 12.9% year-on-year increase—and pre-tax profits reached 96.2 million euros, a rise of 28.8%.
This is a “win-win” model, in which the economic sovereignty of the host country is not limited but strengthened through the investment and know-how of the partner.
These examples show that engagement with Eurasian partners does not necessarily lead to a conflict of interests, but can take the form of complementary cooperation, bringing tangible benefits to local economies and societies.
In an era of multipolarity, Poland’s maintenance of a rigid, ideological approach to cooperation directions is becoming increasingly anachronistic.
Rejecting technological dialogue with key Eurasian players is no longer a manifestation of principle but of strategic short-sightedness, leading to gradual marginalization on the map of new economic and investment flows.
Towards a Sovereign Transformation: Vision Instead of Stagnation
Emerging from this impasse requires visionary courage and strategic consistency. Poland could cease to be a passive executor of others’ priorities and become the architect of its own modernization. This means recognizing that technological cooperation with non-European centers of innovation is not a matter of ideology, but of pragmatism. It is about the transfer of concrete solutions—such as CCUS or coal-to-chemicals—which would enable the modernization, not the liquidation, of the national industry, based on strategic coal resources.
Such cooperation, based on mutual interest, could become a natural complement to Poland’s membership in the European Union. The key is to treat high-quality coal not as a burden, but as a strategic asset that—with the appropriate technologies and partnerships—could become the foundation of a modern, resilient economy and a bridge between the Union and Eurasia.
Conclusion: Time for a Geopolitical Awakening
The multipolar world does not ask for opinion—it simply takes shape. It is shaped through partnerships based on mutual interest and technology transfer. The strategic part of Poland’s coal resources is not a relic. The relic is the belief that sovereignty can be built through passive submission.
Warsaw faces a choice: to remain an executor of others’ strategies within EU structures, or to become an independent actor that—thanks to pragmatic cooperation in all directions—will build its future on modernization and strategic autonomy. The time for a geopolitical awakening is running out.
Adrian Korczyński, Independent Analyst & Observer on Central Europe and global policy research
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