Seven sudden deaths of AfD candidates in North Rhine-Westphalia, officially dismissed as coincidence, have sparked widespread suspicion, statistical debate, and questions about trust in German institutions just days before local elections.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, five AfD candidates died within just 13 days, with two additional reserve candidates dying in the same period. Reports even mention an elderly candidate who succumbed to a long illness, and there was one suicide amongst this cohort.
On the surface, the authorities insist these are coincidences in the run-up to the September 14th elections, with natural causes or pre-existing conditions cited as the causes of all but one of these deaths. But when so many deaths occur in such a tight timeframe and geographic cluster, journalistic instincts shift gears to ask the hard questions: is it truly a coincidence, or is there more to the story than meets the eye?
Authorities insist no foul play was involved, but the sheer improbability of seven AfD candidates dying within two weeks—odds estimated at one in a billion—raises uncomfortable questions about coincidence, timing, and public trust.
No foul play, but screaming foul!
And the first thing you should learn as a journalist is ‘never to believe in coincidences,’ and there is more to the story than meets the eye. Naturally the German police claim that there is nothing suspicious and that there are no indications of foul play.
Most deaths are attributed to natural causes or pre-existing health conditions; one was a suicide, others are still under review, and a few remain undisclosed due to privacy reasons.
The first four deaths prompted administrative headaches—ballots had to be reprinted and some mail votes invalidated. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel reposted an economist’s description of the cluster as “statistically almost impossible,” fueling speculation—even Elon Musk chimed in with a cryptic “Weird.”
Fact Checkers have their hands full!
Fact-checkers like Snopes confirm that the seven deaths did occur and that these are the verified facts—but they emphasize that there is no substantiated evidence of a conspiracy. Reading the initial reports, however, made me doubt myself.
I even contacted a trusted source I have in Germany. She believes that anyone suggesting “something is rotten in the Kingdom of Denmark” (a play on words) must be part of some Russian conspiracy.
When I shared a summary, she immediately dismissed it as fake news.
‘It is fake; I just looked it up. Oh, for Christ’s sake! I just had to talk my brother down from this. It is fake, I just looked it up, she added!’
Alice Weidel didn’t even say that; her own press office put it out that she didn’t say it, and the police investigated. The German government has a department responsible for defending the constitution, and they take fake news very seriously and immediately call out propaganda… unlike in the US. They will go so far as to prosecute if necessary.
She was so convinced of it being fake and wanted me to believe that too; however, I was not convinced it was fake news, and my first reaction is:
I smell a rat!
Even AI and some in MSM are saying it is true, compared to what an American in Germany is telling me, and one with newly acquired German citizenship. I now smell a rat, and a German governmental agency that investigates and prosecutes fake news too adds injury to insult.
Or perhaps she was just trying to protect her citizenship status?
Even I thought it was over the top, as too much like Nazi-period propaganda, so fake that some could believe it. The best propaganda is what appears totally true. The truth is that lots of people are dropping like flies, and it has nothing to do with political affiliation, sexual orientation, or some bio weapon.
Just days before crucial local elections in Germany, 7—yes, seven—members and reserves of Germany’s right-wing AfD party drop dead. Of course, German authorities say these are just coincidental, non-criminal deaths. One was determined to be a suicide!
Is the AfD behind this fake news, or is someone trying to discredit it more than it has discredited itself? And it is likely not the only party with less than a pristine PR record—as one only needs to listen to the governing political parties or EU news releases for more than a fair share of fake news.
If had happened in Russia, Iran, or even China, it would be all over the media; everyone would be talking about it … screaming foul and demanding an investigation. It would be interesting to know how many from other parties were dying, if any, under similar circumstances and in the same time frame!
As we should know from COVID and vaccines, excess deaths among those in the age group that should not be dying, are dying in clusters, and any life insurance company would conclude that this is statistically impossible.
In the end, whether this cluster of AfD candidate deaths in North Rhine-Westphalia is truly a statistical fluke or something more, the story highlights how fragile trust has become in both media and institutions.
German authorities insist there is nothing suspicious—natural causes, suicide, illness—but the sheer improbability of seven deaths within weeks of each other, just before an election, makes it impossible not to raise eyebrows.
The louder officials and fact-checkers repeat “no foul play,” the more some readers are left wondering whether the story itself is being managed, downplayed, or even manipulated. Perhaps it is simply coincidence, perhaps a tragic series of unrelated events. But the fact that so many instantly dismiss suspicion as “fake news,” while others rush to conspiracy, shows the deeper problem: a political climate where official denials no longer settle doubts.
Shocking Statistics
Statisticians note the improbability is staggering: the first wave of six deaths had odds of roughly 1 in 5,000, the second wave of seven deaths around 1 in 247,000, and combined, some analyses, Dr. John Campbell, a public health expert, suggest a billion-to-one chance of coincidence.
A staggering cluster of seven AfD candidates dying within weeks in North Rhine-Westphalia—in a small, healthy population—has odds estimated at roughly one in a billion, making this statistically unprecedented even if authorities insist there is no foul play.
Happenstance or Coincidence?
Contributing factors—tight timing, a limited pool of candidates, above-average candidate health, and geographic clustering—make this cluster unprecedented, even when compared to recent UK and U.S. elections, where candidate deaths are rare. While authorities report no foul play, the statistical anomaly underscores how remarkable, and deeply unsettling, these deaths are from a public health perspective.
If this had happened in Russia, China, or Iran, Western media would be screaming foul. In Germany, it is soberly explained away. That double standard, more than the deaths themselves, fuels the sense that something here doesn’t add up.
At minimum, it raises a question every journalist is trained to ask: when a story seems too unbelievable to be true, is it fake news—or is it the uncomfortable truth hiding in plain sight?
Jeffrey K. Silverman is a freelance journalist and international development specialist, BSc, MSc, based for 30 years in Georgia and the former Soviet Union
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