Even after almost 80 years of their separation, Pakistan and India are still at daggers drawn, making the world’s populous region volatile, hampering it from peace and prosperity.
The Root of Rivalry and Repeated Conflict
The two nuclear neighbors had a short war in May this year. Although the apparent cause of this war was a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, the underlying cause of this war was the unresolved Kashmir issue. Both states hold that the Kashmir region is part of their territory due to some historical events and the unfair and incomplete partition of the British colonizers. In the past, every effort to resolve this issue bilaterally was disrupted by regional non-state actors. However, the involvement of international players behind these disruptions to keep the region destabilized could not be ignored.
Diplomatic Deadlock and Its Human Consequences
Since their inception, both countries have been in an uneasy relationship. The diplomatic interactions between the two sides are at their lowest ebb. For years, neither side has appointed its High Commissioner to the other side, leaving those in need of instant consular assistance helpless, demonstrating a callous approach towards their respective citizens. India and Pakistan hold divided families on either side of the border. However, issuance of visas to members of these families has become a cumbersome task due to intense bilateral relations.
Regional experts hold that the two sides can engage in another showdown in the coming few weeks or months due to the ongoing tensions, perpetual atmosphere of mistrust, and the presence of non-state actors on either side of the border. The lack of trust has made productive dialogue impossible. After the recent spat between Pakistan and India, US President Donald Trump missed no opportunity to brag about his role in establishing a ceasefire between the two countries. The United States holds considerable influence over the two countries. However, President Trump appears to be unconcerned about regional peace.
A volatile South Asia serves the interests of the US establishment. The swift and smooth rise of China and Russia has increased the frustration of the US establishment over its declining global hegemony. A peaceful South Asia will further expedite this rise of the two regional countries. Pakistan hosts the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – CPEC. The United States has always been hostile to this project and has repeatedly attempted to lure Pakistan into suspending this project. However, Islamabad’s determination on this project has left the United States with no other option than to destabilize the region.
Pak-India rivalry and tensions have also put the TAPI, IPI, and CASA-1000 projects in doldrums, due to the refusal of the two states to see through the prism of commonality. The SCO and SAARC are also among the victims of this bilateral rivalry. These ensuing tensions have provided a significant opportunity for the hardliners on either side of the border to capitalize on hatred. For Pakistan, this means the reinforcement of non-democratic forces and an all-out surrender by the mainstream political parties to these forces. Similarly, this will provide impetus to the extremist parties’ narrative. This will lead to centralization of power in both countries and will boost the politics of hate on either side of the border, further exacerbating the regional situation.
The Human Cost and the Need for a Cooperative Future
While the political and military establishments of both countries are fixed on one-upping each other, it’s the ordinary people, especially the Kashmiris, who continue to suffer. Both states have diverted the majority of their resources to their defense sector. Meanwhile, people on each side of the border are struggling with unemployment and poverty. Moreover, the health sector in both countries is also facing significant challenges, including insufficient funding, a shortage of healthcare professionals, and inadequate infrastructure.
In the current era of connectivity and development, both countries need to cooperate for mutual prosperity. Through cooperation, both countries can make the region peaceful, opening the door for regional prosperity and connectivity. Peace between India and Pakistan will also be beneficial for the prosperity and development of the two countries. By strengthening their bilateral relations, both states could focus on the development and progress of their respective citizens. As their uncompromising position over the Kashmir issue is the main irritant in establishing regional peace and enhancing bilateral relations, they should put the abeyance aside and talk about other bilateral issues. Confidence-building measures should be taken by either side. Pakistan and India share numerous cultural similarities. Therefore, people-to-people connectivity and cultural exchange programs can prove lucrative in enhancing bilateral relations between the two nuclear-armed South Asian states.
Taut Bataut is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
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