Georgia’s unexpected airspace windfall amid the Middle Eastern conflict may signal deeper geopolitical entanglements ahead.
But before anyone carves a permanent perch out of this boom, remember the Raven’s grim refrain: “Nevermore.” History has taught the region — and perhaps MI6, now headed by a woman with Georgian roots — that fortune born of geopolitical misfortune rarely stays long. As Europe envies, the West circles, and trade flows like oil through fragile pipes, Georgia’s windfall may yet be undone by its very success.
Location Theory
It appears that “location theory” has turned from curse to cash cow — and why, as the old poem reminds us, the gains of war are often warning of things to come, and hopefully, Georgia will see the dark clouds on the horizon before it is too late.
At first glance, it looks like a flock of birds on a plane tracking map, one which, due to US and European geopolitical failures, has formed over Georgia in recent weeks, especially the long-expected shooting war which has broken out between Israel and Iran, with many expected it to accelerate.
One thing Georgia and its neighbours have learned over time is the best way to survive is to accept the inevitable, at least when it comes to its neighbourhood, geopolitics and location is not always a bad thing—and Georgia is now facing an economic boom on many fronts.
Already, before the most recent hostilities, air traffic over Georgia has significantly grown in recent years with overflights having seen a 103% increase between 2019 and 2023 – among others due to the change of the geopolitical situation in Europe and the closure of Ukrainian airspace. Likely now this number is closer to 200% with Iranian and Israeli airspace recently being closed.
Websites like FlightRadar24 and Radar Box show heavy flight congestion over Georgia compared to a few years ago, with a recent surge since the Iran–Israel-American War Began
Exact “last few days” statistics aren’t publicly released in real time, but here’s what we know: Full‑year and half‑year data already show +30% to +36% increases in airspace usage over 2024 compared to 2023. Considering the airspace closures over Iran, Iraq, and Israel which began recently, and that the summer period (Q2‑Q3) typically sees peak transit, it’s reasonable to conclude that the last few days likely exceed 36% year‑on‑year increase, pushing toward +40–50%, especially during rerouting peaks.
The same can be confirmed, based on my vantage point on the border crossing to Azerbaijan, near Lagodkehi, and personally meeting with some tourists whose flights to Baku were delayed by two days, and they had to be redirected over Egyptian airspace on a flight from Africa. There is also a marked increase in cargo movement, mostly cars for Central Asia and other former USSR countries, however, that is another story.
Location theory vs. Good-Bad Fortune
The Georgians-Armenians have learned something from their histories, other than how to take advantage of the situation for profit, that diplomacy and trade and cross-border and cultural trade is better than pining over how things have not turned out as they may have wanted in terms of geopolitics, and the West, collectively, see this situation as unacceptable, with a coating of envy and cultural arrogance.
Perhaps that is why the new head of M16 was appointed, Blaise Metreweli as the country’s first woman, and actual spy, to serve as chief of the UK’s foreign spy service MI6, and formerly with UK’s domestic intelligence agency. And just by coincidence, she has Georgian roots.
So, with a bit of irony, it is high time to mess up a good thing for the Georgians, for their audacity to make the best of their often-bad location and make a profit out of it in the process.
Her appointment is symbolically significant: a person with Georgian heritage is now in charge of the UK’s foreign intelligence service — just as Georgia is quietly rising in strategic importance due to regional conflicts and its geographic role in global logistics and intelligence operations.
What makes this moment particularly significant is that Georgia and its neighbours operate with minimal coercive power—they lack the military or economic leverage often used by larger states to shape outcomes. Yet, by a twist of geography and timing, they find themselves strategically central in a rapidly shifting global landscape.
Historically, more powerful nations—particularly in the so-called developed West—have pursued trade not only through diplomacy but also through force. The legacy of “gunboat diplomacy” is well established: from the Anglo-American-engineered coup in Iran in 1953, which overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, and the tripartite invasion of Egypt in 1956 by Britain, France, and Israel in an attempt to seize control of the Suez Canal.
In both cases, Western powers used covert action and military force to secure strategic and economic interests under the guise of stability and spreading democracy, at least in the modern age.
At least in the case of Suez, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower pushed back—recognizing that the assertion of power without legitimacy could undermine the very order the West claimed to defend. Today, the question remains whether any such restraint will be shown should small states like Georgia continue to profit from chaos, right under the noses of both allies and adversaries.
Casablanca in the New Age!
So, with all that is happening as a result of Georgia’s location, its ports, and being position to be the strategic supplier of oil to Israel from Azerbaijan, one should be a bit concerned with the relationship of a world dominated by struggling capitalism, weapons sales, hydro carbon deliveries, and noteworthy breaking news.
For now, Georgia is cashing in on the crisis, making the best of a bad location—geographically unlucky, but strategically indispensable. Planes reroute, pipelines hum, and trade corridors buzz, all while Tbilisi plays the quiet host to a world in reroute mode. It’s a textbook case of location theory turned opportunism, pulled off not by force or fortune, but by sheer geographic inevitability.
Windfall or Downfall?
Yet, beneath this high-altitude success lays an uncomfortable truth: Georgia’s windfall is born not of policy, but of other people’s wars. That makes it both temporary and fragile. History has shown that when smaller nations find themselves too useful for too long, their “luck” often invites meddling—from friends, enemies, and so-called strategic partners alike.
So while the skies over Georgia remain crowded, the ground beneath it may yet shift. And as always in this corner of the world, the next chapter will be written not in treaties or press releases, but in the fine print of flight paths, fuel contracts, flight paths, and who decides where the pipelines end.
Georgia has learned to play the hand it’s dealt—brilliantly, if quietly. But in the game of geopolitics, especially with warplanes circling and capitals calculating, even a winning hand can be called in at any moment.
And so, the smart money says: profit while you can—before the birds fly elsewhere. This is more than a story about air traffic—it’s a geopolitical barometer. And if the world is surprised when Georgia becomes the next launchpad in a broader war with Iran, it simply hasn’t been paying attention.
Who in the US, at least nowadays, remembers the War Powers Act of 1973, at least based on what just happened in Iran?
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus
