Amid escalating tensions with Iran, a pivotal meeting between Pakistan’s Army Chief and U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited concerns about Washington pressuring Islamabad into military cooperation, echoing the post-9/11 era.
Pak-US Relations in Retrospect
The United States is often perceived as an unreliable ally in the world. Even the former US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, maintained that Washington always dooms its allies. In a shocking confessional statement, he stated, “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” This statement speaks volumes about the reliability and loyalty of the United States towards its allies.
Pakistan, despite being a close US ally for decades, also faced the same fate. The relations between Pakistan and the United States have always been transactional. Washington has long viewed Islamabad as little more than a regional proxy. For decades, the United States has been betraying Pakistan after achieving its regional ambitions. Pakistan served as the key regional US ally during the Cold War. It played a critical role in training and recruiting the Taliban to fight the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
However, the United States sanctioned Pakistan soon after the end of the Soviet-Afghan War. A new thaw in the bilateral relations between the two sides was observed soon after the 9/11 attacks. The United States coerced Pakistan to join its war against the Taliban. Pakistan suffered immense economic and human losses due to its alliance with the United States against the Afghan Taliban. However, the United States used Pakistan as a scapegoat after losing the so-called war on terror.
Donald Trump, during his first tenure, blamed Pakistan for playing a paradoxical role in the US-Taliban war in Afghanistan. He accused Pakistan of giving the United States “nothing but lies and deceit” and providing safe havens to terrorist – erstwhile US-backed ‘Mujahideen’. Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, also declared Pakistan one of the most dangerous countries in the world during his presidency. Moreover, the United States also put its diplomatic weight in India’s favor soon after withdrawing from Afghanistan, further severing the bilateral relations.
Renewed Engagement Amid Regional Complexity
However, the recent regional complexities and Pakistan’s remarkable exhibition of military capabilities during its recent standoff with India led to a sudden improvement of relations between the two sides. The recent Pakistan-India war and its end due to Trump’s mediation provided him an opportunity to brag about his peace-making abilities and great diplomatic skills. Since then, Donald Trump has missed no opportunity to mention his role in establishing peace between the two South Asian nuclear powers, despite Indian officials’ repeated denial of Trump’s mediation.
Donald Trump recently invited Pakistan’s Army chief for an official lunch at the White House. The decision about acceptance of the invitation became challenging after Israel attacked Iran. The United States has unequivocally supported Israel’s regime change proxy war in Iran. Hours before the scheduled meeting between General Asim Munir and President Trump, the US was mulling of attacking Iran. However, Trump’s remarks about the meeting suggest that his views on the issue changed after meeting the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff (COAS).
Reports about Trump’s alleged demand for Pakistani military bases and intelligence cooperation, in return for counterterrorism cooperation and trade relations, against Iran suggest that Pakistan is once again in a similar position as it was after the 9/11 attacks. Although no official announcement has been made by either side, history suggests that the United States may have pressed Pakistan for support, particularly in light of escalating tensions with Iran. However, bitter historical experiences and contemporary geopolitical challenges have made it impossible for the Pakistani establishment to agree to any such demand.
The Cost of Cooperation: Domestic and Regional Repercussions
Pakistan’s acceptance of any such demand or cooperation with the United States against Iran will jeopardize not only internationally but also domestically. The Shia population, a sect that has a strong allegiance to the Shia regime in Iran, makes up 10-15 percent of Pakistan’s Muslim population. The Shia people hold key positions in Pakistan’s bureaucracy and military. Therefore, any sort of cooperation with the United States against Iran would meet strong domestic resistance and result in internal chaos and upheaval. In addition, the country will see a surge in terrorist attacks by the Shia militia operating from Iran’s Baluchistan province.
On the international front, Pakistan will lose its recently gained recognition as a strong Muslim military power. Moreover, the installation of a pro-Israel regime in Iran will threaten the sovereignty of Pakistan. The latter will have to face a new regional enemy, along with India. As the Zionist Prime Minister Netanyahu stated in one of his old interviews, Israel will attempt to dismantle Pakistan’s nuclear power. Moreover, Israel will also support terrorism in Pakistan.
The United States considers China its biggest arch-rival in the world. Increasing economic and defense cooperation between India and the United States is also motivated by their mutual enmity towards China. However, China has been a time-tested and all-weather friend of Pakistan. Moreover, it is the largest investor in Pakistan. Beijing’s total investment in Pakistan amounts to $79.17m. The provision of military bases to the United States will also jeopardize Pak-China relations. Pakistan could lose its most reliable ally by providing military to the United States. Therefore, Pakistan’s acceptance of this US demand is impossible given the regional and domestic intricacies. However, Pakistan will have to face the detrimental consequences of rejecting this US demand. The only option Pakistan has is to diplomatically engage the United States and establish only long-term economic and trade relations.
Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics
