West vs West stand-offs continue, as populist Right-Wingers spread their message in multiple countries across Eastern, Central, and Western Europe, defying the will of Eurocentric, globalist, pro-NATO parties and Brussels control.
The attendance of Romanian candidate George Simion to a Rally in Poland last month, alongside his co-ideologist Karol Nawrocki, was a projection of what Western outlets termed the “Warsaw-Bucharest Axis”.
It seems that this result in Poland will be perplexing to analysts who tend to abstract and oversimplify the political dividing lines between Left and Right parties while linking this classification to a pro or anti-Russia demarcation across Europe.
If we take even a cursory look at Polish President-elect, Karol Nawrocki, who will be sworn in on August 6th, 2025, we would know that probably his first use of his presidential power would be of his veto power to hinder the incumbent centrist government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, pro-EU programme, as he pledged during his campaign, in continuance of the veto block applied by outgoing PiS-endorsed President, Andrzej Duda., which would mean Tusk’s government would be blocked until the end of its term in December 2027.
Tusk, on his part, facing this major political setback, announced on June 2 that he would ask the Sejm for a parliamentary vote of confidence for his third cabinet. However, even if he succeeded in securing this vote for his “Big Tent” Coalition, it doesn’t seem that the poles of the ruling “tent” would stand against such contentious and continuous presidential veto blocks. Consequently, it seems that the decade-long Polish rule-of-law crisis will not be resolved any time soon.
But can Brussels accuse Right-winger Nawrocki of being Pro-Russia or a Friend of Putin, while he is actually listed on the Russian Federation “Wanted List” for his role as the President of the Institute of National Remembrance, in removing Soviet-era monuments, which he considered symbols of foreign occupation. An act considered by Russia as vandalism of war memorials, and sabotage of the symbolic commemorations of the Red Army’s advance towards victory over the Nazi Army starting in 1939, to the successful 1945 Vistula–Oder offensive, which broke the back of the German forces, and opened the road to Berlin for the Russians a couple of months later, at the outset of WWII.
Karol’s position on the Russia-Ukraine War is more nuanced and composite than other Right-Wing European leaders, namely Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
There are 9 border crossing points between Poland and Ukraine, and certainly some of them were used to transport military equipment across the three Ukrainian main highway routes. Two passing through Kiev, and one more to the south, which crosses the Denipro River via the Kaidatsky Bridge, then continues eastward to cross the Samara River archipelago.
The three highway routes then unite at the Novomoskovs’kyi district and continue eastward until they reach Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian city abandoned by the vast majority of its population, due to its positioning on a key supply route that connects and assembles most of the Ukrainian military hubs and ammunition depots, feeding their front lines against Russia in the Donetsk Oblast.
Turning Pokrovsk into a stage for some of the most intense battles on the eastern front, as Russia expectedly targets this strategic city, and Ukraine considers the repeat of a Bakhmut scenario in Pokrovsk, would represent probably the most consequential setback for them.
Back to Nawrocki, who is a pro-Ukraine military aid, and certainly would not close any of the previously mentioned 9 border crossings, leading to the 3 main Ukrainian highways, which carry Western “packages”, eastward all the way to the war frontlines.
However, Nawrocki is not a proponent of Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union or joining the NATO alliance, concerns over further escalation with Russia. Not to ignore his announced anti-EU agenda positions, as he supports Poland’s sovereignty over ceding more control over Warsaw to Brussels, to the contrary of Tusk’s Big Tent coalition government.
The President in Poland certainly doesn’t hold all the cards of governing, foreign policy, or the “Obrony Narodowej”. However, the Polish president does have Veto power to block Sejm legislation.
That’s the conundrum!
So, how would Tusk be able to go through with his EU-compliant programme, while an incoming Veto-powered president Nawrocki, would not allow him to keep his promises to the European Commission, so it would unblock Poland’s frozen EU Funds if Tusk succeeds in rolling back the outgoing President Duda and the former PiS government anti-EU policies?
A perfect Polish Catch-22, isn’t it?
Furthermore, the Court of Justice of the EU has recently confirmed a total of €320,200,000, in penalty payments against Poland, due to its “failure to fulfil obligations” on EU terms, because of the 2019 Polish Judicial System Reforms. This was after the court agreed to slash the daily fine against Poland in half a couple of years ago, from €1 million a day to €500,000.
A reminder of the case brought by the Czech Republic to ECJ against Poland, for its refusal to cease lignite mining in the Turów coal mine, a highly polluting open-pit mine located close to the Czech-Polish-German border, which brought accusations to Poland of breaking the EU environmental law, and a daily penalty payment of the same amount of €500,000.
Yet, despite the Czech Republic’s recurring rebuke of Poland on the EU stage, both Poland and Czechia have recently agreed during the “Securing Our Future London Summit” on March 2nd, on the four-point plan, announced by British Prime Minister, Kier Starmer:
1- Continue military aid to Ukraine and economic pressure and sanctions against Russia.
2- Ensure that any peace deal would uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
3- Deter future invasions by enhancing Ukraine’s Military capabilities after the deal.
4- Form a “coalition of the willing” to defend the peace deal and secure Ukraine afterward.
With increasing numbers of the Polish population, continue to express their worries over provocations towards Russia, the burden of the Ukrainian refugees in Poland, and the almost 50-50 divide of the electorate between EU “rule-of-law” compliance promises, and a veto that blocks the fulfilment of these promises. The divide between a pro-EU or an anti-EU agenda. A persistent pro-Ukraine agenda, accompanied by an anti-Ukraine integration into the EU and NATO. And a spreading confrontation within Poland and across Europe, between protectionist/nationalist/populist agendas on one hand, and what might be called pro-Europeanism, globalism, and the “Great Reset” on the other.
With all these complications and conflicting views, it seems that Poland’s catch-22 is not limited to its internal political arena, it extends to the geopolitical level as well.
West vs West stand-offs continue, as populist Right-Wingers spread their message in multiple countries across Eastern, Central, and Western Europe, defying the will of Eurocentric, globalist, pro-NATO parties and Brussels control.
As they stood united on stage behind a “PATRIOTS.EU”, during the “Madrid Summit” held on the 7th and 8th of February 2025, adopting its official “Trumpian” slogan of “Make Europe Great Again”. Throwing labels like “anachronistic” and “corrupt” at the EU, dismissing its environmental policies as industrially “suicidal”, accusing its migration policies of “draining” European budgets, and calling its bureaucracy a “cage” that undermines national sovereignty, which they say is now making a “strong comeback”.
Three months later, in the CPAC Hungary 2025, the same European Eurosceptic populists have gathered once more to elevate their game, during the fourth Budapest version of the US Conservative Political Action Conference. Organized and funded by a web of transnational institutions, in Europe and the US.
Former Fidesz MP, Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, made a revealing statement to DW during the conference when he said: “Hungary and Poland form the key axis in this network”.
In their report titled “The ‘Eurosceptic Internationale’ at the gates of Brussels?”, it seems that Budapest-based “Political Capital” think tank analysts, were not entirely wrong when they said:
“Populist radical ‘sovereignist” forces have momentum. So, if they cooperate, their domestic successes can aggregate, ignite a chain reaction, and bring about change on a European scale”.
Yet, I believe it’s fair to ask these questions, regardless of political affiliations and any personal opinions.
Is there really any hope for Europe?
Judging on their two-decade-long failure to garner support to found a “European Constitution”, making up for it with the signing of the “Treaty of Lisbon”, and the challenges they face as they try to impose Brussels will on many European capitals, especially with the ongoing rise of Right-Wing populism, it seems that the answer is no.
Where will these internal political divides and geopolitical detachments lead them?
Molly O’neal of the “Responsible Statecraft”, had this answer at the end of one of her articles, as she commented on what she called “the nationalist challenge against a mainstream consensus” face-off, writing:
“This development could produce a fundamental realignment of party competition in Europe and force a fundamental redesign of the European Union”.
Finally, I have to say that only the future can answer.
Tamer Mansour, Egyptian Independent Writer & Researcher
