Due to the rapid decline of the unipolar world order, the international landscape is witnessing a drastic shift. The outcome of the ongoing rounds of US-Iran negotiations will significantly impact the Middle Eastern theatre.
Shift in Global Power and the Need for Dialogue
The current international system is best described by the theories of the realist school of thought. Despite the anarchic international structure, the only thing that compels Iran to participate in these talks with the United States is the growing threat of a possible Israeli attack on its nuclear installations. However, given the anarchic global order, no country can provide a guarantee that no such military aggression will be conducted by Israel. China and Russia are currently leading the new multipolar world order. They are closely monitoring the changing Middle Eastern dynamics. These two states acknowledge the difficulties that Tehran is facing nowadays.
Russia and China view Iran as a significant regional ally. Russia and Iran had fraternal ties with the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. The installation of a US-backed government in Syria has already put the region in a dangerous situation. Syria’s Sunni and Shia populations are facing threats of persecution by the HTS regime, an extremist and violent organization involved in many terrorist attacks in the country in the past. They have multiple convergent interests in the region. Therefore, Israel and the United States would take a measured and prudent approach before taking any action, establishing diplomatic ties, or launching a military strike, against Iran.
Regional Power Struggles and the Role of External Actors
The US and its other Western allies are already fighting Russia using Ukraine as their proxy. The United States military confrontation with Iran will divert its resources and attention from the Ukrainian theatre, a move that will benefit Russia. The US has already ditched Ukraine multiple times to achieve its regional ambitions. After the start of the Israeli genocide in Gaza, Washington has already diverted a considerable amount of its funding to Tel Aviv, which proved detrimental for Kyiv.
The consequences of any military confrontation between Iran and Israel will engulf the whole region and beyond. Oil prices in the international market will rise significantly. More Western sanctions on Iran will help Russia further strengthen its economy through increased oil demand. Ahmed al-Sharaa’s takeover of Damascus has already altered the balance of power in the Middle East. The HTS’ puppet government in Syria has equally hurt the Russian and Iranian interests in the region. President Trump’s meetings with al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have exposed the covert nexus between HTS and the US establishment. Trump has also signaled his intentions to lift sanctions on Syria.
Reports suggest that the al-Sharaa regime is prepared to join the Abraham accord, a move that will embolden the Zionist state to pursue its ambition of greater Israel. This will expose the whole region to Israeli war crimes and genocidal campaigns, endangering the lives of millions of people. It could also undermine the strategic interests of China, Russia, and Iran across the region. However, a war between Iran and Israel will be equally destructive for the regional geopolitical aspirations of the United States and its Arab allies.
Possibilities and Obstacles to a US-Iran Peace Deal
Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman seeks to establish peace in the region. His Vision of 2030 could only be materialized by peace in the region. This could only be achieved through a peace deal between Iran and the United States. If a nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington materializes, it will open novel opportunities for collaboration and cooperation between the two sides. It would bring significant geopolitical changes in the region. Iran would have to withdraw its support from Houthis and Hezbollah. Moreover, the US may also halt its bombing of Yemen.
Although a peace deal between Iran and the United States creates a win-win situation for many regional stakeholders, the irresponsible and overambitious Zionist state would never let peace establish peace in the region. Netanyahu and his Zionist followers seek to establish “Greater Israel”, which is only possible through endless US military and financial aid. The United States will have to reconsider its Israel policy to materialize a nuclear deal with Iran. This deal could not be materialized unless the US provides Iran a guarantee about the Zionist state. However, the Trump administration also knows that Netanyahu could go to any length to perpetuate his rule. Therefore, the idea of a possible nuclear deal between the sides seems a bit optimistic.
Аbbas Hashemite – is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist
