Rising tensions around Georgia’s Independence Day may signal a looming false flag operation, as foreign-backed opposition figures and Western interests appear poised to exploit unrest to destabilize the Georgian government.
However, what is being foretold for Georgia, discussed, by some in the shadows, and some in the open, appears to be a planned event, a proverbial false flag. When the final analysis is made, it likely has more to do with Europe and the collective West than anything close to domestic politics or the actual internal affairs of a fledgling democracy, and one that wants to stand-on-its-own-two feet.
Ukraine is lost, but they want to claim that they saved Georgia from the nasty Russians!
Let us start with making a paraphrase translation of a recent Georgian politician’s declaration, for the sake of brevity, let’s say, “wannabe leader” … like Chicken Little, Gedevan Popkhadze:
“On May 26, I support radicalization.”
In a fiery televised statement, opposition figure Gedevan Popkhadze called for mass civil disobedience on May 26, Georgia’s Independence Day, urging citizens to picket government buildings and paralyze state institutions in a bid to force the ruling Georgian Dream party to step down. Rejecting traditional party-led protests, Popkhadze insisted that this must be a genuine people’s uprising, not orchestrated by political elites. He emphasized the need for a decisive strategy—either a swift overthrow or a sustained movement—stating that the ultimate goal is to liberate Georgia from Russian influence and reclaim national sovereignty.
Popkhadze did not shy away from invoking the rhetoric of sacrifice, urging those who believe in Georgia’s future to be ready for imprisonment, injury, or even death if necessary.
“We must be prepared for everything,” he declared, while also stressing he would not incite violence but would not flee from confrontation either. Addressing government figures like Tea Tsulukiani and Bidzina Ivanishvili directly, Popkhadze warned that the protestors would not back down, framing the struggle as one for the very survival of the Georgian nation.
Yeah, right…. In addition, apparently, former President Salome Zourabishvili is up to something regarding the planned parade, as according to various inside sources, she’s been warned not to attend—and for good reason, considering the history of national celebrations and US-sponsored gay pride parades in Georgia.
Cutting to the chase!
Feedback, human intelligence from various sources in the government and the Georgian opposition alike, indicates that similar tactics of manufactured provocations and disinformation campaigns are resurfacing in Georgia’s volatile political and security environment. This is despite the Trump administration’s closure of USAID, and is most probably linked to the resumption of activities by NED in the wake of a court decision restoring funding.
These activities, with the possible heating up of internal political pressure, increasing ethnic tensions near the administrative boundary lines with the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Samchabalo), are likely intended to create conditions ripe for repetition of Khurcha-style false flag operations, as was the case in 2008, and before the Georgian-Russian conflict, events that I was involved in investigating, on the ground and writing reports and articles about.
Of special relevance, The Khurcha Incident offers a critical lesson in the enduring dangers posed by hybrid warfare tactics in fragile post-Soviet environments. The current trajectory in Georgia suggests a heightened risk of similar provocations that could destabilize the region and compromise U.S. strategic interests.
As I wrote to some of my due diligence clients years ago. “Immediate attention and a calibrated, multi-faceted intelligence, media and policy response are necessary to prevent a recurrence of violence, thus to maintain local and regional stability.”
Evidence compiled by the Human Rights Centre (HRC), including detailed investigative reports prepared by myself and Simon Papuashvili, unequivocally demonstrated that the incident was a premeditated political maneuver rather than an unprovoked attack by Abkhaz separatist forces.
That brings us to where we are now, today, and one only needs to follow the rhetoric and proposed legislation by Joe Wilson, US Congressman, and others, ironically, named, the MEGOBARI Act, Megobari means “friend” in Georgian), to sanction key Georgian political leaders, in tandem with the Hudson and Potomac Institutes, some rogue elements in Israeli intelligence, a former Georgian Minister of Defense, so to connect the dots as to what is being projected.
The suggestion here is that some foreign intelligence and political actors may try to use May 26th — a symbolically a day of great pride for Georgians— for political theater and disruption, possibly as a pretext to destabilize the current government and Georgian Dream Party, or simply to provoke a crackdown in hope of triggering violent unrest and revolution. Apparently, Zourabichvili may be positioned either as a participant or potential victim in this scenario, all for geopolitical gain.
If history can teach us anything, then my purpose for this article is to warn of a potential false-flag-style event, and one that could happen anytime soon, before, on, or soon after the 26th of May. That why it is necessary to draw ominous parallels to past bloodshed, and highlight the importance of avoiding provocations.
As many in Georgia would agree, and from my own personal stance, I would advocate for normalization with Russia and strive for internal Georgian unity, including territorial, not a new Western-backed Color Revolution or escalation of an already difficult political situation.
One only needs to look back and understand why the 1924 Georgian Revolt failed, and there are some key lessons that could be revisited today!
Let’s stop pretending former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili continues to be a symbol of democracy. He serves best as a cautionary tale of how media image can diverge sharply from political reality.
Justice demands accountability, not rehabilitation. And for his crimes — both legal and moral — prison is exactly where he and many others belong, including the last president of Georgia, who refuses to give up claim to the title, now that Georgia has moved on!
This brings us to the current situation in Georgia. Despite the failure of the protests after last year’s parliamentary elections, which saw Georgian Dream reelected, to overthrow the government, it seems that western sponsored activists and opposition leaders may be about to roll the dice once again, in another attempt to overthrow the legitimately elected government and release and reinstate Saakashvili.
Walls of the Fortress Collapses from Within, is an Old Georgian saying, with special meaning for today:
In the runup to May 26, Georgia’s Independence Day, or in its wake, it becomes increasingly clear that the event may serve less as a celebration of sovereignty and more as a stage for geopolitical theatrics. The rhetoric of radical opposition figures like Gedevan Popkhadze—wrapped in nationalist fervor and appeals to sacrifice—suggests that some are more than willing to ignite a powder keg, whether knowingly or as pawns in a broader, more calculated agenda.
Historical patterns, from the 2008 Khurcha incident to the manipulated optics of Euro-Atlantic alignment, point to a disturbing possibility: that external forces—whether governmental, private, or hybrid actors—are preparing the ground for a false flag operation or destabilization campaign. This would not be the first time Georgia has been used as a proxy battleground, its political divisions and national holidays turned into instruments of foreign policy manipulation.
The signs are there. Inside sources, intelligence chatter, and media positioning all indicate that what happens on or around May 26 could be less about genuine democratic protest and more about an engineered crisis. If so, the goal may not be to save Georgia, but to use it—again—as a symbolic chess piece in a losing endgame elsewhere, as we have also seen in Ukraine—with dismal results! It is blatantly obvious that western powers see both Georgians and Ukrainians as little more than bullets to fire at Russia!
Rather than falling into the trap of manufactured martyrdom or Western-backed upheaval, Georgia would do better to heed the lessons of its own history. The 1924 revolt failed not due to lack of courage, but due to miscalculation and external manipulation. Today’s opposition risks repeating that mistake, with foreign sponsors again pulling the levers behind the curtain.
The way forward lies not in radicalization, but in national reconciliation, pragmatic diplomacy, and a firm rejection of imported agendas. If Georgians want to reclaim their destiny, and find a way forward, they must first reclaim their narrative—from those who would hijack it for another proxy conflict in the New Great Game!
Jeffrey K. Silverman is a freelance journalist and international development specialist, BSc, MSc, based for 30 years in Georgia and the former Soviet Union
