With demand for rare earth minerals likely to reach unprecedented levels, Washington’s pursuit of Ukraine’s minerals comes out of the imperative of staying ahead in the race, controlling Ukraine, and effectively countering Chinese dominance in this field.
At stake, however, is not just the control of minerals but also Ukraine’s future.
Tech Wars
Ukraine also reportedly has Germanium deposits worth US$170 billion. Ukraine’s deposits of lithium, a rare earth mineral predominantly used in the production of batteries, are also a third of all European lithium deposits. Controlling these critical sources is not only crucial for military purposes, but also for controlling the future of even non-military technology.
The price of lithium has surged from US$1500 per ton in the 1990s to around US$20,000 per ton in recent years. According to safe estimates, this demand is projected to increase almost 40-fold by 2040. At the same time, this demand is likely to be at the heart of the ever-increasing production of electric vehicles in the world. Both US and China have locked their horns in the production EVs as well.
China currently dominates the global EV market, producing more than 60 per cent of the world’s electric cars and 80 per cent of the batteries that power them. One might think that Donald Trump, who has a special political relationship with Elon Musk, is pushing for the control of these minerals, but there is little denying that Trump’s push for Ukraine’s resources is deeply embedded within Washington’s long-term game plan against China. Therefore, it was Joe Biden who took the first in the EV war when he imposed a 100-per cent tariff on EV imports from China. Therefore, when the US imposed this tariff and when Donald Trump began to pursue Ukraine’s deposits, it was due mainly to the fact that China had sold 13 million EVs in 2024, which is about four times as many as the US. Beijing’s dominance is quite obvious. The same logic goes for the imperative of controlling other rare earth minerals that hold significant military applications.
Geopolitics by Other Means
But the Trump administration is certainly not projecting its push for Ukraine’s resources as a giant anti-China move. It is mainly projecting it as a) a way to make Ukraine pay the US back for the military aid worth billions of dollars Washington sent to fight Russia, and b) to ensure that US presence in Ukraine would prevent another conflict in the region. This is ironic, given that it was not the absence of the US in Ukraine that caused the conflict in the region. It was Washington’s desire to expand NATO that caused the conflict. Now that Donald Trump has no love lost for NATO – and his advisers are already toying with ideas of US exit from NATO – he is not inclined to extend the transatlantic umbrella to Europe. Instead, he plans to turn Ukraine into Washington’s vessel through large-scale investment in the mineral sector, keeping Ukraine’s development critically dependent upon the US. This would help Washington retain geopolitical influence in Ukraine and potentially use its dominance of Ukraine’s resources to prevent the EU from accessing them freely. This is especially crucial in the wake of growing tensions – and trade war – between the US and the EU.
Is Ukraine’s future secure?
Legitimate questions, therefore, remain about Ukraine’s future. Beyond the fact that Ukraine might find itself under US dominance and lose its autonomy, it remains that the ‘deal’ Trump wants Ukraine to sign does not include any explicit guarantees of Washington’s military support for Ukraine.
Secondly, even if the deal is ultimately signed and the US presence in Ukraine is perceived by the Ukrainians as a form of security guarantee, the benefits of this deal for the Ukrainian economy will not be immediate. It will require years. First of all, it is one thing to sign an agreement with the US; it is another thing to secure enough investment to extract sources, more so because, according to the former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, there is no modern assessment of rare earth reserves in Ukraine. Existing mapping was done 30–60 years ago by the Soviet Union and relies on old exploration methods. Therefore, before any actual investment comes in, a reassessment of Ukraine’s actual reserves will need to be done.
Even if this is done, it remains that Washington’s primary interest is its own and its commitment to any other country’s defence is unreliable. Trump recently refused to commit to ensuring Taiwan’s defence in the event of a Chinese attack. Trump’s gradual exit from NATO and EU’s security is another indication of his lack of commitment. In this context, Ukraine might be headed to an uncertain future.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs.
