The recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi marked a pivotal moment in U.S.-India relations, with significant impact on the future of the South Asian region.
Balancing Act: India’s Dilemma Between US and Russian Military Offers
President Trump, known for his mercurial personality, has made bold and unprecedented decisions since he assumed the presidency for the second time. Most of his decisions are opposite to his pre-election rhetoric. His proposal to clean out Gaza and its takeover by the United States has sparked outrage among the Muslim world. Both friends and foes of the United States are equally concerned about their future relations with the country due to President Trump’s inconsistent personality. Before the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Washington, the US government imposed sanctions on Iran’s Chabahar Port. This move jeopardized the massive Indian investment in the Chabahar port and impinged its interests in the region. Although the visit of the Indian Premier was successful, yet there was no mention of a possible sanction waiver for India, which it secured during the first term of President Trump, to continue its development projects on the Chabahar port.
However, this is nothing unusual. The United States has always been known for being an unreliable ally. Nonetheless, the visit also has multiple positive outcomes. In a joint press conference with the Indian Prime Minister, the US President stated, “Starting this year, we will be increasing military sales to India by many billions of dollars.” He further offered India the opportunity to buy F-35 stealth fighter jets.
Although this development has been welcomed by many analysts in India, it has put the country in a difficult question. Russia, an all-weather friend of India, has also offered to sell its state-of-the-art Su-57 jets to India. Rosoboronexport, the Russian state arms exporter, offered India a highly lucrative deal. This intriguing offer includes the joint production of the aircraft in India, Russian assistance in the development of the fifth-generation fighters in India, and the provision of ready-made fighter jets. The offer demonstrates that, unlike the United States, Russia does not shy away from transferring technology.
This has put the Modi administration under severe pressure. The opposition parties, especially the Congress party, are against the purchase of the F35 aircraft. In a post on the official Congress party account on X, the party asked, “The F-35, which Elon Musk has described as ‘junk’, why is Narendra Modi hell-bent on buying it?” Undoubtedly, Russia is offering India a more lucrative deal. However, the latter also needs the United States on its side to counter the rapidly rising influence over the globe and in the region.
Economic Pressures and Trade Negotiations
Bilateral trade was also a significant issue between the two countries. India is facing an economic slowdown. In the Fiscal Year 2025, India has estimated its GDP growth at 6.4 percent, which is significantly lower than 8.2 percent in the previous year. Just before the arrival of the Indian Prime Minister in Washington, President Trump announced that he would impose reciprocal tariffs on the country’s trading partners. This announcement and its timing were alarming for the Indian government. However, to avoid these tariffs, the Indian government has announced that it will reduce duties on more than 30 US products. President Trump welcomed this move and stated that his government would consider these decisions by the Indian government in its tariff policy.
Modi government has reduced the possibility of a trade war between the two countries through this prudent move. Both sides have announced plans to double the volume of the bilateral trade by 2030. They have also agreed to finalize the multi-sector bilateral trade agreement (BTA) by the end of 2025. Overall, this visit was a success for the Modi government. However, Trump 2.0 has also put the incumbent Indian government under significant pressure through his tougher policies. The Modi government must take prudent measures to sustain its alliance with the United States and Russia simultaneously. Otherwise, the country will have to face significant economic and diplomatic repercussions.
Abbas Hashemite – is a political observer and research analyst for regional and global geopolitical issues. He is currently working as an independent researcher and journalist.
