Over the past year, Tehran and Dushanbe have signed nearly 100 agreements across various sectors, including 22 memorandums of understanding, visa waivers, and economic facilitation measures, signaling a revival of their past strong relations.
In the mid-2010s, relations experienced a period of tension, which led to political disagreements. Relations cooled until 2019 after the invitation of Mohyeddin Kabiri, the leader of the Opposition Movement of the Islamic Movement (IRPT), to a conference in Tehran in December 2015.
However, in 2019-2020, the two countries demonstrated their willingness to resume expanding relations in the economic and political spheres.
With the resolvent of differences between the two countries, the process of expanding relations has gained more volume and quality, and the relations between the two countries have moved from the phase of general and diplomatic meetings and agreements to specific and joint steps in specific projects.
In the past year, the presence of the President of Tajikistan in the funeral ceremony of the former President, Ebrahim Raisi, and the inauguration ceremony of Masoud Pezeshkian indicates the development of political relations.
Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, met and talked with Tajik officials in Dushanbe, last fall, to strengthen parliamentary relations. They discussed expanding relations, implementing the 50-year cooperation document between the two countries, and taking important steps to leapfrog bilateral economic and trade cooperation.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian’sfirst visit to Tajikistan in January 2025, his first destination in a Eurasian country, and his meeting with Emomali Rahmon and other officials are important milestones in the development of win-win relations.
Pezeshkian called for the development of cultural, scientific, economic, and security relations between the two countries. Referring to the ancient culture and civilization of ancient Iran and the cultural relations between the two countries, Emomali Rahmon called for deepening relations between the two countries in all fields and using Iran’s experiences.
From the perspective of Masoud Pezeshkian, Tehran now has no limits to expanding relations with Tajikistan in various fields and is trying to remove all possible obstacles to this goal. Even now, the predominant aspect of Tajikistan’s approaches to relations with Iran is cooperation and goodwill.
Iran’s foreign policy in Tajikistan is based on political, economic, and cultural areas. The geopolitical and strategic importance of Central Asia has become more prominent for Iran, and Iran is strengthening its role and position.
The approach adopted by Iran in the field of foreign policy with Central Asian countries is also an attempt to create a balance in relations with its Eastern and Western neighbors. While Tajikistan seeks to diversify its international relations, strengthen its economic infrastructure, and advance Tajikistan’s national development strategy by 2030, Iran’s relations with Tajikistan are aligned with a broader strategy of countering Western sanctions and expanding its influence in Asia and Eurasia.
Regionalism is considered one of Iran’s most important strategies in the field of foreign policy. From Iran FM Abbas Araghchi’s point of view, there are many areas of cooperation between Iran and the countries of the region, which, if developed, could lead to regional coalitions.
Iran’s national interests are seen in consolidating the independence of the Republic of Tajikistan and ensuring internal stability. And Tehran is considering the Moscow-Tehran-Beijing multilateral cooperation model to reduce Washington’s geopolitical presence in the region.
In recent years, some bilateral security agreements in areas such as counter-terrorism, a wide range of meetings and visits, and the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding on security and defense cooperation, and the development of military relations have had important consequences in military and defense relations.
In recent years, the Taliban’s position in Afghanistan, ISIS*terrorism, and concerns about Afghanistan’s security as a neighbor of both countries have led to the expansion of relations within the bilateral and multilateral framework and cooperation in combating terrorism and border security, reducing the risks posed by extremist groups and drug trafficking.
At the regional level, apart from cooperation and exchange of views on regional and global issues, Iran and Tajikistan have common concerns, especially about Afghanistan and extremism, extremism originating from the Middle East, drug trafficking, transnational organized crime, and cybercrime.
Therefore, paying attention to Iran’s experience in combating ISIS*, establishing joint groups, and strengthening information sharing can help reduce risks.
In addition to diversifying regional partnerships, relations with Tajikistan, with a shared history and cultural roots and elements such as shared history, culture, language, literature and customs, and cultural kinship, can help align foreign policy with the priorities of Iranian public opinion.
The convergence of Iran and Tajikistan and the geocultural ties between the two countries can lead to strengthening geoeconomic and geopolitical ties.
Tajiks and Iranians both belong to the Iranian language family. In the past year, the leaders of the two countries have pointed out the importance of a common language and, apart from opening the Persian-Tajik Culture Research Institute, have identified common areas for cooperation in the cultural field of cinema, film, and series, the use of cultural diplomacy, and the development of cultural tourism.
Iran and Tajikistan, to develop cultural relations, have agreed to significantly increase their tourism interactions to 100,000 people by abolishing visas from February 2025.
In the view of Pezeshkian, one of the ways to expand relations is to facilitate trade relations and sign a preferential trade agreement between the two countries. Also, measures such as visa-free travel, parliamentary cooperation to facilitate trade laws, financing of hydroelectric power plants, export of engineering and technical services and investment by Iranian companies, knowledge-based cooperation and technology transfer between the two countries, launching a tractor manufacturing complex in Tajikistan, and tourism can bring prosperity to trade and previous investment.
Tajikistan is considered a landlocked country, and one of the best routes for Tajikistan to access open waters is the Iranian route. One of the routes of the BRI corridor is China – Central Asia – West Asia China – Kyrgyzstan – Tajikistan – Afghanistan – Iran and West Asia.
While the development of transport cooperation between Iran and Tajikistan is a serious need, recently the development of cooperation in the field of transport and logistics was signed with a memorandum of understanding.
The two countries can develop bilateral and multilateral trade transit through key agreements and the development of cargo transit through Iran’s Chabahar port, accelerating the ongoing projects of joint corridors and railways.
Also, Tajikistan’s national economy and the real growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) have exceeded 8%. There is a favorable opportunity to attract investment, generate electricity, and expand economic cooperation
Сhallenges and prospects
Trade between Tajikistan and Iran in January-November 2024 amounted to $ 336.8 million, but Iran’s share of Tajikistan’s total import market is only 3.5 percent. However, the target of one billion dollars in economic exchanges is achievable.
Apart from the 50 percent growth in trade volume in one year, 13 memorandums of understanding during the recent visit for bilateral cooperation in areas such as trade, agriculture, water, transportation, energy, health, export of technical and engineering services, efforts to remove obstacles that facilitate trade and investment between the two countries, issuing new laws, visa exemptions and applying preferential customs tariffs are a new beginning in the development of economic and trade relations between the two countries.
In fact, in the past year, the focus on signing nearly 100 documents on political, economic, cultural, and parliamentary cooperation between Tehran and Dushanbe, visa abolition and facilitation of economic exchanges, signing 22 memorandums of understanding on cooperation, and a joint statement by the presidents of the two countries are signs of the return of Tehran and Dushanbe relations to the previous golden era.
There are many opportunities for economic cooperation between Iran and Tajikistan. However, it will be necessary to promote tourism, harmonize technical and quality standards, strengthen transport infrastructure and facilitate banking affairs, sign a preferential trade agreement, expand the scope of visa waivers and direct flights between the two countries, facilitate trade exchanges, effectively implement agreements and remove trade barriers.
Since 2019, the two sides’ relations have improved, but the Tajik market is still not fully familiar to Iranian investment and trade firms.
Various factors at both domestic and foreign levels play a role in Iran-Tajikistan relations. However, through the expansion of visits, further activation of the intergovernmental commission, and the comprehensive implementation of the 2030 Cooperation Plan and its roadmap, the two countries can achieve the previous peak of relations.
*-banned in Russia
Farzad Bonesh ‒ geopolitical and geoeconomic analyst, researcher and writer
