US President Donald Trump has announced to ‘cleanse’ Gaza by forcing its lawful residents into neighbouring countries. This plan will not only invite opposition from regional countries, but also reignite fears of a wider conflict.
From Ceasefire to Ethnic Cleansing
Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who leads the National Religious Party-Religious Zionism, described the plan to be “excellent”. “For years, politicians have proposed impractical solutions like dividing the land and establishing a Palestinian state, which endangered the existence and security of the world’s only Jewish state, leading only to bloodshed and suffering for many. Only out-of-the-box thinking and new solutions will bring about peace and security”, he added. He confirmed that he will work with the prime minister and the cabinet to implement this plan as soon as possible.
But this plan cannot work without the explicit support of Arab states, especially Jordan and Egypt, two countries that Trump identified as the ideal places for the people of Gaza to relocate. Besides the plan’s rejection by Hamas and Palestinian officials, Qatari officials, who mediated the pause in fighting in Gaza, also described “any plan that would end with relocation or reoccupation” as a red line. Even Egypt’s al-Sisi said that “The deportation or displacement of the Palestinian people is an injustice in which we cannot participate”. The king of Jordan said that they have a “firm position on the need to keep the Palestinians on their land and to guarantee their legitimate rights, in accordance with the Israeli and Palestinian two-state solution.” One can also see why states like Saudi Arabia, too, will not support this plan – not only because it will reignite conflict but also because it will make it extremely hard for states like the UAE as well to keep ties with Israel ‘normal’. This is not to mention that this plan will make it nearly impossible for Saudi Arabia to contemplate normalization with Israel under US auspices. As far as Jordan is concerned, given its population size, its demography could undergo a massive – and permanent – transformation if it were to take more Palestinians.
Why Trump Wants to ‘Clean’ Gaza
A key reason is the powerful Jewish constituency that voted for Trump in the 2024 elections. Almost two-thirds of Orthodox Jews based in the US voted for Trump. While the Jewish vote in general favoured Kamala, Trump still has a powerful incentive to use his ‘clean up’ plan to carve out electoral space amongst Jews for himself and his party. (Many in the US seem to strongly believe that Trump plans to run for a third term as well. So, more Jewish votes could be decisive in many ways.)
More importantly, Trump’s plan is a return, although in a slightly different form, to the so-called ‘Deal of the Century’ he had prepared as President in 2020. The proposed plan envisioned the Israeli annexation of large swaths of the West Bank, including illegal settlements and the Jordan Valley, giving Israel a permanent eastern border along the Jordan River. This time, however, Trump’s plan targets Gaza.
Why the plan will fail
In his first term, Trump’s deal was an outgrowth of the so-called Abraham Accords that saw Israel normalising its ties with several Arab states, including the UAE. But the Accords and the deal – and the fact that both plans completely ignored and excluded Palestinian interests and voices – combined to ignite fears amongst the Gazans and Hamas that eventually led the latter to attack Israel on October 7, 2023, leading to Israel’s genocidal war in the next 15 months to follow.
Now that Trump wants to actually ‘clean’ Gaza means that this plan – which, once again, totally ignores Palestinian voices and disregards their interests – will possibly invite much reaction from within Palestine specifically and from the region more generally.
This plan will also push Saudi Arabia away from any prospects of normalization with Israel. One key precondition set by Saudi Arabia for discussing normalization is the creation of an independent state of Israel. Because Trump’s plan directly undermines the Saudi position, the latter is more likely to align its regional position with Iran vis-à-vis Palestine than the US. In such a scenario, Trump’s plan is most likely to end up shaping regional geopolitics in ways that would undermine the overall US position.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs
