Armenia’s signing of the Charter on Strategic Partnership with the United States on January 14, 2025, is a symbolic step in diplomacy, but the lack of meaningful commitments highlights the difficulties in managing complex regional alliances.
The Caucasus is one region which has not much been written about, especially Armenia, at least in the MSN.
The signing of the Strategic Partnership Charter between the Republic of Armenia and the United States of America took place in the U.S. Department of State in Washington. On behalf of the Republic of Armenia, the document was signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan, and on behalf of the United States, by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The timing of news about this region is highly suspect, right before President-elect Trump took office, and it is suspicious that ‘right at the end of the Biden administration’ that the US and Armenia should sign, of all things, a strategic partnership, which is only a single step lower than Treaty obligations.
While celebrating the new Charter as a diplomatic success, Armenian officials face scepticism from Moscow, as well as from their own public, Azerbaijan and Iran. While Russia subtly continues to assert its long-term influence in the region, particularly with its improving relationship with Georgia, Armenia’s geopolitical reality is in question which, dominated by Azerbaijan’s resources and alliances with Turkey and Israel, limits its leverage.
Armenia’s dual-allegiance strategy may falter, as history demonstrates the unreliability of such transient alliances. The U.S. partnership is best perceived as more of a gesture than a game-changer, as it is overshadowed by regional power dynamics and unresolved tensions with Azerbaijan.
Ultimately, Armenia is walking a fragile path, navigating competing influences with only uncertain outcomes available. Nonetheless, I hope that it is not a strategic partnership for using Armenian territory for a war with Iran, considering that the US has a tendency to walk away from car-crash-after-car-crash, then jump into another vehicle and not change its driving habits!
The timing is revealing with regard to the situation in Gaza and the West Bank, which is most likely a lull, better described as a break, breather, i.e., stopgap measure, and coinciding with the End Game in Ukraine Proper fast approaching.
It seems a bit ironic how Yerevan also claims that Moscow has the strongest bilateral agreements with Armenia, as recently highlighted by Foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan who made this statement during a joint press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow.
Armenians are trying to play both ends against the middle, having their cake and eating it too. Currently, the Russians are showing strategic patience, and using diplomatic language to remind the Armenians what their real interests should be.
The question is, how long will the Russians be patient for?
But a man can’t ride two horses at once!
The Strategic Partnership Charter doesn’t have much substantive content. There are a lot of reaffirmations of policy positions. Again, that’s fine and appreciable, but I wouldn’t expect any far-reaching consequences – except perhaps for developments in nuclear co-operation.
The administration has changed in Washington, anyway.
It is worth-mentioning that history is only too clear as to which power has been, historically and pragmatically, and will most likely continue to be, the guarantor of peace and stability for Armenia. Its newfound friends, birds-of-feather, however, as numerous as they may appear on the horizon, are unlikely to be able to deliver, strategic partnership or not!
As quickly as they arrived, they can depart – vanishing in different directions like a flock of geese when spooked. Azerbaijan will continue calling the shots in the region, as it has gas and oil and two strategic partners, Israel and Turkey.
US interlocutors had made all the right statements before, provided learned commentary on all that is going on in the region, and they too have found the reality to be different than from the rhetoric.
Unfortunate as it may, at least for the international Armenian Diaspora, The US government has been losing interest in Armenia in recent years, not that it really had much to start with, other than in some Congressional voting districts.
Washington’s former role, or pressing concern, over Karabakh is just a footnote now, from a historic perspective, at best, and Armenia is strategic solely for its location in a difficult neighborhood, especially in its proximity to Iran, though the Georgians have found out how fickle the US is, it seems the Armenians are slow to learn from the experiences of their neighbors.
Nonetheless, The Armenian government has celebrated this event. I suppose it is indeed an achievement in diplomacy. Have a look at the document which was signed, and review former foreign minister Oskanian’s take which I found worth-considering.
In Conclusion:
At this juncture, Armenia finds itself at a crossroads, attempting to balance its alliances with the United States and Russia in a volatile region dominated by Azerbaijan’s energy resources, military power, and alliances with Turkey and Israel. The signing of the Strategic Partnership Charter with the U.S. may offer symbolic diplomatic gains, but it lacks substantive commitments that could alter Armenia’s strategic position.
It is also vulnerable to the increasingly tense relationship between the West and Georgia, over the latter’s refusal to submit to the will of Washington and Brussels. As Georgia appears to be reassessing its options and relationships, Armenia would be well advised to remember that, if worse comes to worst, that any American aid might have to transit a Georgia where the government is not keen to assist Washington.
Russia, on the other hand, remains Armenia’s enduring partner, employing measured diplomacy to remind Yerevan of its historical and strategic ties. However, Armenia’s strategy of playing both ends against the middle is fraught with risk; such manoeuvres can backfire in a region where power dynamics shift rapidly, and being an unreliable partner can be deadly.
The path forward requires not just diplomacy but strategic clarity and a willingness to align its actions with its enduring security needs. Riding two horses may offer short-term flexibility, but eventually, Armenia must decide which course to pursue to ensure security, stability and progress.
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus