Despite the promises of the new Syrian administration, the inclusive national dialogue has been postponed for an indefinite period.
Discussions about the legitimacy of the new government continues
One of the key concerns is that key ministries and government agencies are controlled by representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham*, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda*, which has undergone a significant ideological transformation but still adheres to ultra-conservative Islamist views that may cause dissatisfaction among diverse religious and ethnic groups in Syria.
The dialogue was originally scheduled for January 4-5, but it has been postponed due to the need for further work on the criteria for selecting participants, the agenda, and organizing events. These will help the participants reach an agreement on the main points of the transition during the period.
The National Dialogue Conference (SNDC) is expected to be attended by approximately 1,200 to 1,500 Syrian representatives, including at least 100 from each province. In addition to representatives from administrative districts, members of various religious and ethnic minority groups will also participate in the conference.
However, there has been some disagreement regarding the invitation process, which is being overseen by the SNDC’s preparatory committee. This committee, which is responsible for determining criteria for participant selection, setting the agenda for the conference, and developing procedural mechanisms, was established by HTS*.
There are concerns that, similar to HTS* itself, the committee is participating in institutionalized political activities for the first time and may perform its duties randomly and in an unreasonable manner due to a lack of experience.
The controversial aspects of the participant selection criteria
Some of the criteria set by the committee have caused controversy. In order to comply with the established requirements, it is necessary to have proven experience in political or revolutionary struggle against the Assad regime. However, the Committee does not consider the possibility of inviting opposition organizations operating outside the country. The argument in favor of this solution is that invitations to such organizations could raise the issue of quotas for representation, which in turn could lead to problems that have hindered the progress of the Syrian opposition for a long time.
The Syrian Opposition Coalition (National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Oppositional Forces, or SNC), founded in Qatar shortly after the start of the Syrian revolution, stated that it would not participate in SNDC if invitations were sent to individual members of the coalition rather than as representatives of the organization.
Supporters of the High Transitional Council argue that the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) did not play a significant role in overthrowing the regime and therefore should not have the right to represent the country as an organization. Instead, they believe that the Military Operations Command (CVO*), which was the main body actively fighting against the previous regime, should be given this role.
However, the SNDC has arbitrarily defined criteria related to regime change, which has led to confusion. Many political groups actively opposed the regime, but were not on the front lines at the crucial moments.
Some argue that inviting political parties to the national dialogue will turn it into a discussion of their achievements and roles in the Syrian political arena. In addition, without free and transparent elections, it will be impossible to determine which party has the most popular support and deserves the largest number of seats in the SNDC after the elections.
Some analysts are considering how to represent the large Alawite community in Syria in the process of national reconciliation and the creation of a new social contract that does not infringe upon their rights. If the main criteria for participating in the national dialogue is opposition to the regime, then how will those who have taken a neutral position or have not spoken out against the regime for fear of retaliation be taken into account?
The SNDC Preparatory Committee has announced that various groups, including young people, women, and former political prisoners and activists, will be represented at the conference. However, it is still unclear whether those who left the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) individually or as a group will be invited to participate in the dialogue.
These former SAA soldiers now feel somewhat marginalized, as the FSA leadership has excluded them from the provisional administration.
The process of forming a new Syrian army is underway. Foreign militants who have participated in the ranks of HTS* have been given positions in the new military hierarchies. This indicates that when distributing positions, not only nationality but also an active role in military operations to overthrow the former regime are taken into account.
Criticism of the Conference Agenda
Other commentators argue that the proposed agenda by the preparatory committee is too simplistic, considering the many complex issues that need to be addressed. The participation of 1,500 people over two days does not guarantee that the Syrians will have their opinions heard regarding the form and content of the transition process.
It is necessary to develop procedures, rules of conduct, and other mechanisms that will facilitate meaningful dialogue. Additionally, it is essential to organize an organized presentation, discussion, and adoption of documents containing the positions and proposals of political and constitutional experts. The conference agenda will cover various topics, including the suspension of the current constitution, the promulgation of a constitutional declaration to replace it with a transitional document.
The mechanism for electing a constituent assembly will be launched, as well as meetings to draft a permanent constitution that will be submitted to a referendum. In addition, the following points are on the agenda:
- Dissolution of the current parliament.
- Creation of a transparent mechanism for forming advisory committees that will provide temporary assistance to the government during the remaining two months of its term – until March 1 – or to assist the next transitional government.
- Formation of a more representative transitional government to replace the current one, which is an interim government representing only a narrow spectrum of the extreme right and possesses limited political experience and insight.
A transitional government will govern the country until general elections are held. Many experts have expressed concern about the statements of Al-Shara regarding holding elections in four years and adopting a permanent constitution.
The Constitution is valid for three years, and they are wondering if the government plans to seize power during this time and establish an authoritarian regime, similar to the one created by Hafez al-Assad in the 1970s. This system also relies on alliances between the government and business. These alliances are formed through the spiritual leaders of minority sects, Islamic jurists, merchants, and business magnates.
The decision of the preparatory committee to postpone SNDC can be seen as an attempt to respond to criticism and give time to formulate rules and criteria that will give Syrians confidence in the dialogue being truly representative of society. Until the committee publishes a transparent and fair selection process for participants and a more detailed agenda and rules for the conference, discussion about its effectiveness will continue.
*organisation banned in the Russian Federation
Viktor Mikhin, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, expert on the countries of the Arab world