Taiwan faces mounting challenges as the Trump administration reshapes U.S. foreign policy, demanding greater defense spending while signaling reduced military support against China.
Trump’s Expectations From Taiwan
While it might have been usual for Taiwanese leaders to continue to expect US military and diplomatic support against China, Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House may go a long way in reversing the pattern of expectations in place since the 1950s. As it stands, Trump wants Taiwan to spend more on defence than the latter has been spending lately. In other words, while Trump may be inclined to offer Taiwan help against China, the framework within which this help can take place is going to change. This is turning into a major issue for Taiwan.
In October 2024, even before Trump became US president, he made sure that Taiwan will need to spend more on defence. Trump’s demand came despite the assurance he received that Taiwan was committed to spending about 2.5 per cent of its GDP. Trump, the candidate, disagreed to emphasise at least 10 per cent of GDP spending by Taiwan. (This is certainly much more than what, for instance, Trump wants NATO members to spend.) Trump, the president-elect, has not changed this position. This demand does not come out of nowhere. Trump sees this as to balance out with Taiwan. As it stands, Trump has a set of his own grievances against Taiwan. In an interview in July 2024, he said that the reason why Taiwan must pay more is because “They did take 100% of our chip business”. In 2023, he went to the extent of accusing Taiwan of “stealing American jobs”.
Trump, therefore, does not necessarily see Taiwan as a crucial ally against China. In addition to that, he also wants to ensure that this alliance brings material benefit to the US. In fact, he has complicated the scenario even more ever since winning the presidential race. In an interview given on December 8, Trump did not commit to militarily defending Taiwan – a major indicator of a shift in the policy of the Biden administration. On the contrary, he said that he has a very good relationship with China’s Xi and that the two have been communicating ever since his victory. Even if China attacked Taiwan to reclaim it, Trump, unlike Biden, made it clear that the US would not militarily defend it. Instead, his weapon of choice is economic: he aims to impose tariffs on China of up to 150% to 200% in case of a war.
That is certainly not good enough for Taiwan insofar as the policy of imposing tariffs – which is not certain to work always – will not help reverse China i.e., if it decides to militarily retake Taiwan and unify the territory. Where does it leave Taiwan? What can it do to prevent this from happening?
Taiwan’s Choices
A logical step for Taiwan would have been to connect with the US policymakers to impress on them the imperative of continuing to support them against China. This is what the Taiwanese leader is doing. US House Speaker Mike Johnson recently had a phone call with Taiwan’s president Lai. After this, the Taiwanese leader arrived in the US territories of Hawaii and Guam in early December. This trip – Lai’s first ever as President of Taiwan – was designed to garner support from the Trump administration. Although it is highly unusual for sitting Taiwanese leaders to visit the US, whether this visit will work to garner the necessary support from Washington or not is, however, questionable.
Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Republican Senator Marco Rubio, a prominent China hawk, is known to have sponsored legislation supporting high-level visits by Taiwanese officials to the US. But he recently expressed confidence that a solution to any outstanding issues with China can be found, thus dampening the extent of support he can expect in the near future. What else can Taiwan do amidst such ambiguity?
The China Option
Lai’s visit to the US territories was as much meant to draw support from Washington as a provocation to China. But, in the wake of Trump withdrawing proactive support that characterised the Biden era, Taiwan could benefit from a policy of rapprochement with China. Earlier in 2024, Lai called on China to have a dialogue, but this call carried little importance insofar as it was overshadowed by Taiwan’s continuing militarization under the US auspices. For instance, the US approved US$2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including the first-time delivery of an advanced surface-to-air missile defence system. In late December, Joe Biden authorised another $571 million in Defense Department material and services and military education and training. Militarization tends to nullify offers of talk.
To give talks a genuine chance, Taiwan needs to take a different step. No one is advocating a complete demilitarisation but stopping further military aid and purchase of advanced weapons systems from the US for the moment – and when getting that support is already going to become quite costly due to Trump’s demand for spending 10 per cent of GDP – might create useful space for even China to pause and rethink its Taiwan strategy. China fears US support will allow Taiwan to formally declare independence. A pause in further militarization could be the appropriate message saying that formal independence is not on the cards. In short, Taiwan needs to excite China for talks. One proper step in that direction can make a huge difference.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs.