EN|FR|RU
Follow us on:

On the results of the presidential election in Croatia

Robert Galich, January 14, 2025

Following the presidential election, the incumbent head of state, Zoran Milanovic, won again, having been in fierce confrontation with the centre-right Prime Minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenkovic, including on Ukraine.

Zoran Milanovic, Croatian elections

The specifics of the state and political structure of this small European country, a member of NATO and the European Union, is that the prime minister is the head of the executive branch and the actual leader, while the president of Croatia is endowed with limited, sometimes ceremonial functions and has to take into account the defining role of the prime minister.
Milanovic harshly criticised the proposal to send European troops to Ukraine

A distinctive feature of the country’s domestic and foreign policy development is the permanent confrontation and personal hostility of the heads of government and state, Andrej Plenkovic and Zoran Milanovic, representing the two main opposing political forces: the ruling centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (CDU) and the opposition centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP). This factor has a serious impact on Croatia’s domestic and foreign policy, which is fully in line with the policies of NATO and the EU. At the same time, due to the superiority of the prime minister in governing the country, the head of state, who is trying to obstruct the government’s work, cannot, in fact, influence its activities and is limited to confrontational rhetoric, including on Ukraine.

Why Croatia supported Milanovic again

Zoran Milanovic’s reserved stance on Croatia’s full support for Western policy on Ukraine and his public statements, which run counter to the official course of Zagreb, do not have any noticeable effect on the emphatically pro-Ukrainian attitude of Plenkovic and his administration. It should also be added that Milanovic’s behaviour is more related to his irreconcilable personal confrontation with the prime minister than to the principled line of the European Union on the conflict in Ukraine.

It is in this context of Croatia’s domestic political specifics that the latest presidential election should be considered. In general, one should keep in mind that the head of the Croatian state is elected for a five-year term by a direct vote of citizens on the basis of a majority electoral system.

A candidate’s victory requires a majority of more than 50% of votes in the first round. A second round is held if no candidate wins a majority in the first round and only the two leading candidates participate in it.

A vote was held on December 29, 2024. Zoran Milanovic was opposed by 7 candidates from different parties and as independents. It is noteworthy that the ruling CDU party nominated a less well-known person, the former Minister of Education, Science and Sports (2003-2009), Dragan Primorac, as its independent presidential candidate, who had no chance of success in the very beginning, but surpassed all other candidates except Milanovic himself. Indeed, he came second and received about 20% of votes, while the current head of state confidently won with 49%.

Such an election outcome was predictable and Milanovic lacked only 1% of the vote to win in the first round. The decisive role in this was played by the continued popularity of the head of state, who also showed his independent character in the conflict with the prime minister, as well as the obvious weakness of the CDU candidate, who was not able to compete with the current president.

The active support of Zoran Milanovic by his supporters from the SDP was also of great importance. It is difficult to imagine what the prime minister was counting on by nominating a deliberately weak CDU candidate, but, apparently, he was not interested in his representative’s victory, so as not to create a second centre of power. In addition, the ruling party currently does not have strong figures capable of defeating Zoran Milanovic, who is unruly, but still enjoys the support of the general population. 

Milanovic’s victory does not change the overall picture

This fact was confirmed by the results of the second round of voting held on January 12, 2025. Once again, Milanovic won a convincing victory – as expected – receiving almost 75% of votes this time. His opponent only managed to win approximately 25% of votes.

Thus, Zoran Milanovic won another five-year presidential mandate, which can be considered a personal success of the current head of state, the Social Democratic Party that supported him, on the one hand, and the defeat of Prime Minister Plenkovic and the ruling CDU party on the other. However, this outcome does not change the overall picture, i.e. the continued dominance of the current right-wing regime led by Plenkovic. The re-elected head of state will, of course, continue his confrontational line towards the government, but given his limited powers, such obstructionist behaviour by the president is unlikely to lead to a change in the alignment of political forces. Croatia’s foreign policy – despite  Milanovic’s objections – will continue to fully support the actions of the EU and NATO in Ukraine, providing further military assistance to it. The current head of state is unable to influence such an openly pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian government policy. Z. Milanovic is by no means a pro-Russian activist and euro-sceptic; his actions are largely dictated by his personal irreconcilable confrontation with the current ruling regime and the struggle for power. The current president has almost no chance of changing the situation in his favour. These are the current political realities in this small Balkan country.

 

Robert Galich, political spectator, expert in the Balkans

More on this topic
Romania to Be Allowed Only Washington and EU-Approved President
The election of President Mahama in Ghana and the prospects for relations with Russia
Democrats in the US are retreating before the onslaught of Trump
Ethnic Shifts and Gender Bias: What the 2024 U.S. Election Reveals for the Future
Recent developments in India and Pakistan