The outgoing administration of the Democratic Party of the United States is handing over both domestic and international affairs in a rather complicated state. This is particularly true in the realm of relations with its primary geopolitical opponent, modern-day China.
This is, of course, deeply concerning, given the critical importance of the narrative it depicts in the current phase of the “Great World Game”. It is worth emphasising that the outgoing Democratic administration has largely followed trends — what is often described today as forces of “almost irresistible strength” — that had already taken shape in Sino-American relations long before it came to power. Indeed, it remains unclear what options the incoming administration might have to even halt the progression of these negative trends.
Relations between Washington and Beijing are currently unfolding along a negative trajectory, affecting nearly all aspects of their bilateral ties. In politics, the competition for critically important influence over developments in the Global South — largely composed of struggling nations — is intensifying.
Particularly alarming is the situation in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, which adjoins it. As of now, there appears to be no prospect of any meaningful compromise to resolve the U.S.-China confrontation in these areas. Meanwhile, rhetoric from the leadership of the Indo-Pacific Command — the most powerful arm of the U.S. military responsible for safeguarding American interests in the region — is becoming increasingly threatening.
Interestingly, the outgoing administration has criticised Donald Trump’s previously declared intention to dramatically increase tariffs on trade with all external partners. These tariffs are deemed “excessively high” and could potentially backfire on the U.S. economy. At the same time, China has reminded the world that it was, in fact, Joe Biden’s administration that launched a tariff war against China — primarily targeting high-tech sectors — under the pretext of national security and in contravention of WTO norms. Under the same rationale, Chinese students and researchers studying at American universities or working in U.S. scientific laboratories are facing growing difficulties.
On the Positive Aspects of Sino-American Relations
Nevertheless, various stages of real political life are not strictly divided into “halls, themes, and styles”. In reality, political life always features, in varying proportions, both dark and bright hues. This is simply unavoidable, as the political landscape is shaped by living people, not dead colours. It is essential for those making important decisions to be well attuned to the shifting moods of the people.
Even in the rather “dark” picture of Sino-American relations, there are also bright flashes, particularly in the trade and economic spheres. For instance, the aforementioned restrictions imposed by the United States are almost entirely driven by political considerations and are mainly counterproductive for the interests of American businesses. These “flashes” are, in fact, largely driven by the activity of representatives from these businesses.
One noteworthy development has been the 4% increase in bilateral trade in the concluding year. Although this is less than last year, it still represents growth. On 12 December, the 7th meeting of the “Economic Working Group” (EWG) took place in Johannesburg, South Africa. A few days later, the 7th meeting of the “Financial Working Group” (FWG) was held in Nanjing. In this context, it is worth noting the call from outgoing U.S. Secretary of Commerce Janet Yellen, who had been instrumental in establishing both of these groups in the autumn of 2023, urging the newly elected President Donald Trump to “continue to support” the work of both groups.
In mid-December, the extension of the Agreement on Scientific and Technological Cooperation for the next five years was also signed. This, in particular, should help alleviate the previously mentioned negativity surrounding the presence of Chinese scholars and students in the United States.
However, perhaps the most notable of the “bright flashes” in bilateral relations was the “gala” meeting held in Washington on 11 December by the highly respected “US-China Business Council” (USBC), which unites representatives from over 200 leading American companies operating in China. This event took place under the overarching theme “Managing Sino-American Relations in 2025 and Beyond”, and written messages were addressed to the participants by both Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.
Public Opinion Survey on the Prospects of Sino-American Relations
It is worth noting the rarely mentioned but nonetheless significant factor of public sentiment, which forms the backdrop against which the “powers that be” weave their intrigues at the table of the “Great World Game”. In this regard, the results of a grand-scale public opinion survey conducted by the Institute at the leading Chinese publication “Global Times” are particularly noteworthy. The survey focused on the current state of affairs in the world and the anticipated developments in relations between the two leading global powers.
The survey was carried out between 6-18 November of this year in 20 of the world’s most significant countries, with a base of 17,000 “reliable responses” from individuals of all ages. Clearly, the resulting “aggregated” figures serve as a form of “average temperature across the hospital ward”, taking into account the specific issues in the countries surveyed as well as the diversity of opinions within each.
Nevertheless, these figures merit attention. Thirty-one percent of respondents view the current global situation as a “significant threa”, which is notably 9% lower than last year. Another 30% regard it as “somewhat threatening”. This suggests that feelings of inevitable catastrophe are not predominant, and it is always natural for people to be wary of “the unknown”, as we live in an imperfect world.
The largest concern (57%) among respondents is the prospect of an economic crisis, while ongoing armed conflicts are ranked second (less than 50%). By a significant margin, the most important players in the global economic processes were named as the United States and China. Overall, it is expected that relations between them will worsen, although 56% of respondents would prefer that this does not occur.
Amidst these generally cautious assessments of the global situation and, specifically, the future of relations between the two global powers, the “schizoid” propaganda present on the European continent appears out of place. This includes various iterations on the theme of nuclear war. There are frequent accusations directed at certain mysterious “Westerners”, among whom specific individuals are beginning to emerge, such as Donald Trump and his vice president, often being accused of seeking to destroy Russia and the Russian people as a nation.
At the same time, and pre-empting the inevitable question of why these “Westerners” (and, consequently, Trump and “J.D. Vance”) might have such a desire, references are made to “history”, various official documents (with bold names and “high” signatures), and the recitation of poems by various talented poets. For example, on the theme of the impossibility of “understanding” Russia, which “one can only believe in”. It is difficult, by the way, to imagine a greater misfortune for a country than using such a formula in political practice.
Therefore, in order to “understand” our country and its place in the real, that is, once again emphasised, imperfect world, a formula with the opposite meaning seems far more acceptable. This formula is also presented in poetic form, but for obvious reasons, it is not possible to reproduce it here.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region
