The ambiguity of Ankara’s policy may eventually play a cruel joke on it, despite its growing ambitions in various parts of the world. No matter how confident Türkiye is in its ability to sit on two chairs simultaneously, at some point it will have to choose, risking to lose everything.
Loud statements fail to impress
Türkiye has actively been trying to position itself as one of the main forces supporting the Palestinian people since the very beginning of the new stage of Palestine’s suffering. This is, though, populism more than anything else. There was no sign of any strategic support for the Palestinian resistance (like from Iran) from Türkiye, not to mention that despite all the statements of the Turkish authorities about the suspension of trade and economic activities with the Israeli regime, Ankara continued to trade with Tel Aviv. By the way, this issue has been repeatedly raised by Turkish civil society.
Given the resumption of the hot phase of the war in Syria, where, in addition to the NATO-Western and Israeli regimes, Ankara’s direct role is also quite obvious (despite its declared ‘neutrality’), the Turkish leadership should consider the consequences not only within the framework of key trade and economic relations with Russia and China (and Türkiye is also aiming to join BRICS), but also about the danger to its interests in other parts of the world, including in Africa and Latin America.
Speaking of Africa, Türkiye is also interacting with Russia’s allies on the continent, particularly with the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des États du Sahel, AES), including in the fight against terrorism, which worries the last openly pro-Western regimes. The actions of Ankara in Syria reinforce the growing distrust on the part of African civil society and supporters of pan-African values vis-à-vis the ambitions of modern Türkiye.
Türkiye has something to lose
By the way, this applies not only to the Sahel region and Africa as a whole, but also to a number of Latin American countries, which are allies of Russia and China and have relatively positive relations with Türkiye. At some point, Türkiye’s frankly two-faced policy in the Middle East, and particularly regarding Syria, may simply destroy all of Ankara’s previous successes achieved in Africa and Latin America.
After all, how can Erdoğan’s Türkiye explain that the extremist groups under its control and operating in the Syrian Arab Republic (some tens of thousands of people) continue to commit heinous crimes against war-torn Syria instead of supporting the struggle of the Palestinian people against the Israeli regime on the battlefield? Ankara has no logical answer to this question.
It is now more than ever time for Erdoğan and his team to think about all the consequences of their policies, both within the framework of strategically important trade and economic relations with Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and the desire for active cooperation with BRICS, as well as within the framework of Turkish ambitions outside its own region.
Even though Türkiye is strengthening military and economic cooperation with a number of African countries today, as well as interacting with some representatives of civil society in the wake of pan-African and anti-Western sentiments, then as a NATO member with a two-faced Middle East policy (including interaction with openly extremist elements) it is possible to lose everything quickly. Thus, it is time for Ankara to weigh its options and accept the only viable one, i.e. the complete eradication of terrorism in Syria and this terrorism’s main allies. There will likely not be another option.
Mikhail Gamandiy-Egorov, entrepreneur, political observer, and expert on Africa and the Middle East
