In the early morning hours of October 1 Israel started a land invasion of Lebanon with the support of its air force and artillery following the bombing of several Lebanese cities, including Beirut. This is the first land invasion since 2006.
The snide assassination of Nasrallah
The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah goes beyond the immediate confrontation between Israel and its Islamist enemies. Nasrallah was both a leader and a symbol of Iran’s desire for hegemony in the Arab world and in the Middle East. His fighters have promoted the Iranian cause in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and beyond the region in Europe, Africa and Latin America.
Nasrallah was the most powerful man in Lebanon and its de facto ruler, a fact rarely stated by world media and officials. He led the armed forces and the political structure that overshadowed the weakening official state and led the successful rebellion against Israel from 1992 to 2000 and the inconclusive Israeli war in 2006. After the defeat of the pro-Western Lebanese nationalists in 2008, the official government and its Lebanese cabinets were unable to challenge Hezbollah. What are the likely consequences of Nasrallah’s departure? Firstly, the importance of individuals in the political and military leadership should be recalled. Nasrallah, like Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Al-Quds special forces in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was one of the architects of the political and military project that has brought success to Iran over the past two decades. However, these plans, along with the project, were somewhat stalled after the assassination of Suleimani by the Americans in January 2020. Nasrallah’s assassination ends the months-long process of beheading Hezbollah. Chief of Staff Fouad Shukr, head of the Radwan Force Ibrahim Akil, commander of the missile forces Ibrahim Kubaisi and many other non-senior operatives have been victims of the recent Israeli targeted strikes. The Israeli Air Force destroyed Hezbollah’s headquarters under an apartment building in the southern suburbs of Beirut, marking the culmination of a campaign in which more than 500 fighters were killed.
Assassination attempts to do not, of course, provide guarantees. After all, Nasrallah became leader after Israel assassinated his less capable predecessor. The strikes inflicted on Hezbollah do not mean that it has lost its basic capabilities; it continues to fire into northern Israel, which means that up to 100,000 internal Israeli refugees are still unable to return home. Thus, the results of this war are still unknown, as it is unclear what Tehran will do – at least in terms of avenging the death of Haniyeh.
Israeli officials and experts are actively discussing the possibility of escalation to a full-scale war in which Iran itself could potentially enter the battle.
It may be recalled that the Iranian attack on Israel on April 14 was carried out in response to the assassination of IRGC General Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus. However, it is just as likely that Hezbollah will try to take revenge on its own. The assassination of al-Musawi in 1992 was avenged by an attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, followed by the destruction of a Jewish community centre in the same city in 1994.
Why Israel wants war with Hezbollah
The war – which neither side wanted – has nevertheless begun and is gaining momentum. After the explosions of pagers and walkie-talkies reportedly injured 1,500 members of Hezbollah’s armed forces, the Israeli Air Force launched an extensive campaign of airstrikes against the organisation’s facilities throughout Lebanon, killing several senior leaders while simultaneously striking with long-range missiles. Hezbollah, in turn, fired long-range missiles for the first time, including half-tonne missiles, aimed at the broader Tel Aviv region.
This latest round of conflict began on October 7 last year. While Israel was still recovering from the surprise attacks from Gaza and the massacres the day before and was still fighting to retake kibbutzim held by Hamas fighters, Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israeli towns right by the border, eventually forcing the evacuation of about 100,000 Israelis. During the entire period, Hezbollah has been firing rockets, RPGs and drones equipped with explosives at Israel, and Israeli forces have attacked Hezbollah commanders and fighters, mainly in southern Lebanon, but sometimes also beyond its borders, for example in the Beqaa Valley or in Syria.
Despite the many opportunities for a larger escalation, both sides tried to avoid a full-scale war. After twelve Druze children were killed in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, the IDF killed Fouad Shukr (one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders in Beirut), but both sides still managed to reduce tensions. Israel avoided bombing Beirut (except for the rare assassinations of high-ranking officials). Hezbollah did not launch its huge long-range ballistic missiles at the centre of Israel, but it was still an unstable situation.
But, as it turned out, the airstrikes were not sufficient to achieve Israel’s main stated goal: the safe return of 100,000 evacuees to their homes. The Israeli military was openly preparing for a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. The Chief of Staff of the IDF told the soldiers that their “military boots will enter enemy territory” to oust Hezbollah north of the Litani River.
Has Iran entered the war?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired dozens of rockets at Israeli positions in response to the aggressive actions of Tel Aviv. It was stated that this strike was an Iranian response to a series of terrorist attacks by the regime, as a result of which one of the leaders of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah and the commander of the IRGC, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, were killed.
Within a few hours, the IRGC issued two statements: the first confirmed reports of missile strikes against the Israeli regime and the second announced that three military bases near Tel Aviv had been targeted. This is the second time Iran has launched missiles at Israel from its territory. During Operation True Promise in mid-April, Tehran struck a number of military installations after the regime attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Tuesday’s attack was dubbed Operation True Promise II.
During its first attack against Israel, the IRGC used about 300 of its older technological drones and several ballistic missiles. Reports show that the second operation was characterised by a higher level of technological complexity and the use of a wider range of weapons. Iran has deployed hypersonic missiles for the first time since it announced them in their arsenal, according to IRIB news, as well as statements from the Israeli military.
“Even though the region as a whole was protected by several high-tech defence systems, approximately 90% of our rockets fired successfully hit their targets, the intelligence and operational capacities of Iran horrifying the Zionists.
In a post on X, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran had exercised its “legitimate right” and responded to the Israeli aggression in accordance with international law. “Netanyahu should know that Iran is not war-seeking, but in the face of any threat, we will respond decisively… The actions taken were just a small display of Iran’s capabilities. This is just a glimpse of our power. Do not engage in conflict with Iran”. Iran’s mission to the United Nations made similar statements, adding that “there will be a subsequent crushing response” if Israel commits another act of violence.
Victor Mikhin, corresponding member of RANS, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
