A number of recent events related in some way or another to the issue of Taiwan serve as reason to return to this topic.
The ‘week of China’ in US Congress
These include almost everything that happens in Xizang (Tibet Autonomous Region), Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Hong Kong and, finally, Taiwan. Moreover, the resolution of various problems arising here, generally speaking, falls within the competence of the Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China. In relation to this, the following question arises: dear congressmen, what do you want 15,000km away from your territory? Don’t you have enough problems at home? They should instead put in a similar effort for the benefit of their own citizens, who already seem ready to shoot at each other.
Seeing as Beijing cannot yet exercise direct control over Taiwan, and Washington’s real political goal (although not advertised) is to deprive the former of such an opportunity for the foreseeable future, Congress is particularly zealous regarding the Taiwan issue. The most recent event in this regard was the September 9 adoption of the draft law ‘Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act’ of 2023 118th Congress (2023-2024), by the lower house of Congress.
Against the background of other acts adopted in recent years on the topic of Taiwan, this latter is very specific in nature; it is almost the first time that it is targeting certain specific individuals of the ‘top Chinese leadership’, who are threatened by having ‘confidential information’ published, for example the unearned incomes of some of them. The reason for this may be Beijing’s ‘non-peaceful way’ of solving the Taiwan problem.
The Taipei Times commentary on the adoption of said act says that this time US lawmakers “creatively and effectively” approached the problem of the ‘defence’ of the island. It should be noted in this regard that the Chinese leadership itself (and often with extremely harsh methods) is fighting corruption in various echelons of power. However, apparently, US lawmakers have reason to believe that it is insufficient.
Let us also recall that all these anti-Chinese dances around the Taiwan issue are taking place against the background of Washington’s declarations of recognising the ‘one China policy’, recently confirmed during a visit to China by the US President’s National Security Adviser J. Sullivan. At the same time, they announced their intention to continue supplying Taiwan with the most modern US military equipment – a truly amazing way of combining two completely incompatible things.
Meanwhile, the adoption by the lower house of US Congress of the above-mentioned act opened ‘the week of China’, during which it was supposed to approve as many as 28 legislative documents affecting various aspects of relations between the two leading world powers. Still, the fact itself of the adoption of the very specific Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act is particularly noteworthy.
The issue of Taiwan is becoming an organic element of the transformation of the situation in the region as a whole
This has already been noted in New Eastern Outlook in connection with continuous events being held, for example the US-Philippine ‘Balikatan’ exercises and the Pacific Island Forum (PIF). The scenario of the Balikatan exercises, along with the traditional motive of the escalating situation in the South China Sea, for the first time included the Taiwan issue. As for the latest PIF, this issue turned out to be at the centre of plots conducted on the sidelines of this event by both leading world powers.
Let us note the tendency of Washington nominating the Philippines as one of the ‘frontmen’ of the anti-Chinese ‘orchestra’, which the US is forming in the Southeast Asian region. The aforementioned candidate for this role tries not to deceive the expectations of the ‘conductor’. It is reported that Manila is attempting to organise a ‘summit of at least 20 states’ on the topic of the situation in the South China Sea on the sidelines of the upcoming regular UN General Assembly. There are also plans to carry out some ‘defensive’ measures on small islands belonging to the Philippines in the Luzon Strait, the northernmost of which is located 140km from Taiwan.
Thus, there is a prospect of such a level of aggravation of the situation in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan area, which is fraught with an out-of-control ‘conductor’. This is not yet included in the plans of the latter, who seeks to keep the entire system of relations with China within the framework of ‘crisis management’. This is exactly what National Security Adviser to the President of the United States, J. Sullivan, did during talks in Beijing.
During negotiations with the head of the PLA Southern Command, General Wu Yanan, held on September 10 in a videoconference format, the head of the Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral S. Paparo, was faced with the same task. The Pentagon representative also did the same at the Xiangshan International Security Forum (the Chinese equivalent of the Shangri-la Dialogue, which started a day later in Beijing).
The aggravation of the situation in the subregion, which is formed by Taiwan and the Southeast Asian countries, worries not only the players directly involved in it. In this regard, the 12-day trip of Pope Francis to a number of Southeast Asian and Oceanian countries in the first half of September is noteworthy. The official goals of visiting Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Singapore did not go beyond matters of local Catholic Christian communities, but Pope Francis is too important in modern politics, which, we repeat, is becoming increasingly tense in the region of the visit, to limit the goals of this trip in the way indicated above.
By the way, they were awaiting him in Taiwan as well, but the response was not reciprocal. This once again testifies to the desire of Pope Francis to position himself above the current political struggles. As for China, although Beijing does not have official relations with the Vatican, the fact that this tour took place was positively assessed here.
An opposition leader has been arrested in Taiwan
Finally, a remarkable event that happened at the end of August in the domestic political field of Taiwan itself drew attention to itself, i.e. the arrest of the leader of the third most important Taiwanese People’s Party (TPP), Ko Wenje, at the request of the prosecutor’s office on the grounds of suspected corruption during the construction of a certain commercial facility in Taipei during his tenure (until 2022) as mayor of this city.
Following the results of the general elections held in January this year, the TPP has the third-largest faction in parliament and, together with the Kuomintang, which took the first place, forms a parliamentary majority. It is in opposition to the president, who represents the Democratic Progressive Party, and the government he is forming. This creates certain inconveniences (mostly in a public sense) for the island’s executive power, which is acting virtually uncontrollably. It is the TPP and the current president, William Lai, who are the messengers of Washington’s policy on the island.
Immediately after the elections, the opposition announced its intention to establish some kind of control over the president and the government; suspicions arose about the political bias of the prosecution of one of its leaders, who provoked mass street protests, to which the pro-government Taipei Times reacted in two ways: on the one hand, the suspicions were rejected, but, at the same time, transparent hints are made about certain ‘flaws’ in the current political course of the TPP.
As for Washington, it now has to operate in Taiwan in a less comfortable environment than in the previous eight-year period of undivided domination on the island of the TPP. The methods of the former, however, are becoming more sophisticated.
This is illustrated by Congress passing the (quite specific) ‘Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act’.
Vladimir Terehov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
