Articles deliberating on the left-right divide, racial fissures, and even the possibility of a civil war in the US were widespread during Trump’s tumultuous tenure. And while a civil war did not precipitate, the world did witness a plethora of incidents that unveiled American societal fractures – most harrowing being the George Floyd protests and the Capitol Hill attacks.
The former initially saw millions of Americans, already reeling from the pandemic, rally against racism. Violence against minorities, especially African Americans, is widespread – sadly, many times occurring at the hands of law enforcement officials. These post-murder rallies eventually turned violent and America was enveloped in chaos. Billions of dollars of property damage took place, and 19 people died in the madness. There were literal no-police zones as declared by the protesters, and the country resembled a dystopian society from a book. Black Lives Matter and other leftist protesters clashed with police in many areas, and there was a nationwide demand to defund the police. Trump took to Twitter and began scolding the governors and state administrations for not dominating the protesters. Vandalism, looting, and arson gripped the country and the National Guard had to be called in to ensure peace and stability. Rather than bridging divides, sympathizing with African Americans, and calling for calm, Trump berated and blamed “Antifa and the radical left” for the post-murder violence. His abrasive rhetoric which included unleashing “vicious dogs” made things much worse. This could have been his moment to unite the country, but instead, he chose to be a Republican President rather than America’s. In some polls, almost half of Americans disapproved of how he handled the protests.
The second instance was when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol on 6th January 2021. Trump’s hardcore Evangelical base shocked the world by storming the Capitol to disrupt the 2021 election results, in which Trump had lost. The violence led to 9 deaths as well as hundreds of injuries and was a black day in the American saga. They were encouraged by Trump, who did not concede to the results, claiming election interference led to his loss. The unproven narrative resonated with Trump followers, some of which belonged to far-right extremist groups such as the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers. These radical groups had gone to Capitol Hill intending to use violence to overturn the results. Political scientist Susan Spokes remarks that while the mass of Trump followers might agree with his allegations of fraud, those claims have been so thoroughly refuted that it is hard to comprehend that they are accepted by many of the GOP’s leadership who joined him in overturning the election. Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for incitement of insurrection, with even Mitch McConnell asserting on the Seate Floor, “There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day.”
Schisms Under Trump
From the two aforementioned examples, the black vs white, as well as the right vs left split, becomes apparent. Trump is the only US president in history who had no prior military or government experience. He was loud, brash, undiplomatic, and petty. Due to his punitive stance against leftist values as well as his narrative of populism, many conservatives put their trust in him. Conversely, however, liberal Americans began to deride him for his hateful, derogatory, unhinged and undiplomatic actions. He was not only divisive during the election campaign but divided the country pronouncedly after his tenure. “In an early 2019 poll, 56% of adults said Trump had made race relations worse since taking office, compared with only 15% who said he had made progress toward improving relations.” The preceding is before the George Floyd murder. Black people were vocal that it was more difficult being black than white, and generally minorities were unhappier. Racial divisions deepened not only due to George Floyd’s murder, the Charlottesville white nationalists rally, NFL players taking a knee etcetera but how the country’s commander-in-chief responded to such racial issues. Trump’s base, especially raucous in rural America, believes his narrative of “draining the swamp” and that the “deep state” and liberal extremists are out to diminish their religious and cultural values. These differences were not accepted by Trump, but he “…seized upon many of them as tools to build his power base.” People who had voted for Trump were looked at with disdain by the left, with the reverse being true as well. An indication of the extreme division can be understood through this Pew survey: “An average of 86% of Republicans approved of Trump’s handling of the job over the course of his tenure, compared with an average of just 6% of Democrats – the widest partisan gap in approval for any president in the modern era of polling.”
Even the media landscape stood dichotomous with liberals listening to CNN, CBS, ABC etcetera while the right predominantly leaned towards Fox News. CNN and its anchors’ abhorrence for Trump was glaringly ostensible, which in turn made Trump supporters boycott the channel. Conversely, liberals usually ridiculed Trump supporters for receiving their news from Fox.
During and after Trump’s tenure, conspiracy theories also flooded social media, sometimes touted by Trump himself. Conspiracy theories such as QAnon, Pizza Gate, and the 2020 election voter fraud became popular amongst Trump’s base and remain popular. These theories divided America as well. For example, 63% of Republicans still believe that the 2020 election was stolen, and this number has wavered minutely since 2020. Conversely, only 6% of Democrats believe the Republicans’ election-denying claims. Therefore, for the overwhelming majority of left-leaning Americans, this conspiracy theory (which has been unproven) is completely ignominious.
Despite losing the 2020 election, Trump still received a massive 74 million votes – more than any Republican in history. Trump is so discordant that evidence reveals that Biden won not because of his policies or his bona fides, but because of him receiving the anti-Trump vote. Adding credence to this point, the 2020 election exit polls revealed that a whopping 44% of Biden voters described their vote as more against Trump than for Biden.
Another Civil War?
After the first Civil War in 1861, could America suffer another one? Deliberations on a civil war 2.0 have been a hot topic for many years amongst the fringe right; however, it received more mainstream attention during and after Trump’s presidency. This is evidenced by the released communications of the far-right group Oath Keepers around the time of the transfer of power to Biden. The founder of the group sent a message via Signal that read, “We aren’t getting through this without a civil war. Too late for that. Prepare your mind body, spirit.” On December 11, he asserted that if Biden took over the presidency “it will be a bloody and desperate fight. We are going to have a fight. That can’t be avoided.” Many other militias, mainly far-right ones, have been preparing for a second civil war for years – this includes the Boogaloo Bois. What is extremely perilous, as historian Sean Wilentz explains, is while such fringe groups did exist in American history, “…they were contained because both parties respected each other and respected what political representative democracy was all about… The Republican Party stopped doing that. And that is what unleashed this force.” In other words, in the age of Trump, these extremist voices found a sponsor in the Republican Party. Mr. Wilentz is not incorrect, as these previously fringe voices have become talking points inside the Republican Party itself. Some examples include the recent 2024 comments by Ohio state Sen. George Lang during a rally where he remarked, “I believe wholeheartedly Donald Trump and Butler County’s J.D. Vance are the last chance to save our country politically. I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country, and it will be saved.” Last year in August, Republican Georgia state Sen. Colton Moore asserted, “Do you want a civil war? I don’t want a civil war. I don’t want to have to draw my rifle. I want to make this problem go away with my legislative means of doing so.” In August 2023, Michigan state Rep. Matt Maddock was deliberating on how things would descend into chaos if the government continued charging Trump followers with election crimes – he stated, “Or we’re going to have a civil war or some sort of revolution. That’s where this is going. And when that happens, we’re going to get squashed. The people here are going to be the first ones to go.” In 2024, the GOP nominee for governor in North Carolina known for his extreme comments flaunted in a church that “Some folks need killing! It’s time for somebody to say it. It’s not a matter of vengeance. It’s not a matter of being mean or spiteful. It’s a matter of necessity!” His diatribe targeted rapists, communists, socialists, anti-conservatives etcetera, but it wasn’t clear who he wanted to lethally target.
Trump himself will also not be pulling his punches if he is elected or not. His base is his power and he to them is almost a messianic personality. He has even called himself “the chosen one” once while looking at the sky. The recent failed attempt on his life is being hailed by Evangelicals as well as Trump as a miracle or God’s intervention. This, while pitiful to the left, is immutable for many conservatives. Trump has also begun advocating that Iran is trying to hack the election campaign. Furthermore, Republicans are asserting that they will only accept the election results if Trump wins. Some are even bracing for violence in November 2024 and its aftermath, with a Johns Hopkins University poll revealing that 31% of those Republicans who believe Biden did not win think that either “a lot” or a “great deal” of political violence will take place post-elections. Moreover, 65% of Republican election deniers state that the US is “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to descend into a civil war – higher than other Republicans (40%) and Democrats (43%).
Militias
The rise of the far-right, fringe, and militant voices, in at least conservative America’s eyes, is due to the left/democrats and their policies of open borders, more immigration, protecting gay rights, admission of abortion, increasing gun control, etcetera. These and other policies have made it clear to rural and Evangelical America that the left is destroying their Christian way of life and is undermining their morals and principles. Conversely, the Trump and post-Trump eras have revealed to Democrats that if left unchecked, the right and the growing far-right menace might not only destroy liberal ideals but the country itself. This environment has become an incubator for new leftist militias and an augmenter for the more prevalent far-right militias. The far-right’s hegemony is monolithic when it comes to private paramilitary activities, despite such activities being barred by all 50 states. Currently, around 200 militias exist in the US, some having a nationwide presence while others are active statewide. Examples from the far-right include the Ohio Defense Force, Patriot Prayer, Oath Keepers, Boogaloo Bois, and Proud Boys to name a few. The membership numbers of these far-right groups are believed to range from 20,000 to 60,000. These groups are well-armed and organized and often draw membership from military veterans.
The far-left also has militias such as the NFAC (Not F*cking Around Coalition) which is a very well-armed all-black militia serving black interests. It came to the limelight in 2020 and was formed to oppose racism and far-right militancy. Other leftist examples include the Anti-Racist Action, which is an anti-racist and anti-fascism militant group formed in 1989. Moreover, while not a militia, Antifa gained popularity during Trump’s presidency. It is an anti-fascist group but has increasingly become more violent, often clashing with far-right protesters. The right claims that Antifa is a domestic terrorist organization. Trump would often place Antifa in his crosshairs for inciting violence and would link its patronage to the Democrats.
It is also pertinent here to mention that in 2023, 42% of households in America owned one or more firearms. The US also comfortably leads the global list of highest gun ownership (civilian guns owned per 100 people) with a rate of 120.50 – therefore, if chaos does ensue, it can easily snowball into a larger conflict with the amount of firepower US civilians have.
Conclusion
Whether Trump returns to power or not, these schisms in American society will remain for the foreseeable future. All this powder keg needs to explode is a spark. That spark could be Trump reusing election rigging as an excuse if he loses in 2024, or if he wins, the emboldened far-right groups could once again clash with liberals and even far-left groups. Trump is the hero of the right and the bane of the left. He is the divider in chief. His vitriolic propaganda, while endorsed by the Republican leadership and accepted by millions of Evangelicals is rejected by liberal America and the Democrats – both sides are therefore on a collision course. With America’s economic and diplomatic hegemony already waning, these societal fissures aggravated by Trump could lead to another civil war.
Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
