For the fourth month now, US Typhon medium-range missile systems have been deployed in the Philippines under the pretext of joint exercises. This projection of US military power in Southeast Asia is unprecedented and is no less intense than during the Cold War. How did this happen, what else is being done by the Washington-Manila alliance and how can it affect the security of the region?
The treaty must be terminated
The Typhon MRC battery was deployed by the US near the city of Laoag in the northern part of the Philippine island of Luzon in April, 2024, under the pretext of their use in military exercises Salaknib-2024. Their firing range is up to 2500 km, depending on the missiles used (SM-6 or Tomahawk). In July, the Philippines reported that the MRCs were only temporary, but nothing has changed since then, as there is no exact date for their possible withdrawal.
In ancient Greek mythology, Typhon is a hideous monster that fought Zeus and caused a lot of problems to the gods and people, defeated only by military cunning. He was subsequently buried under Etna and still occasionally spews flames. Doing its name justice, US weapons do not bode well for the security of the international environment in the Asia-Pacific region in general and Southeast Asia in particular. The missile systems (four of them have been deployed to Luzon, plus a command post) are the latest development of Lockheed Martin, created as part of equipping the US armed forces with medium-range missiles ‘with a scope’ to increase the affected area. Within the structure of the US Armed Forces, they are usually integrated into the ‘Strategic Fires Battalion’ scheme, which also includes HIMARS MLRS and Dark Eagle hypersonic complexes.
The proliferation of such weapons falls under the US-Soviet Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty from 1987. However, in 2019 the US unilaterally withdrew from the INF, after which Russia also had no choice but to terminate it for its own security and strategic balance. In the official documentation, Russia’s step was recorded as ‘suspending the implementation of the treaty’, but, of course, it is absolutely obvious that in conditions of constant international confrontation and obvious violations by the US, it is in principle impractical for Russia to comply with such restrictions. Initially, after Washington’s withdrawal, Moscow observed a moratorium on the proliferation of short and medium-range missiles, on the condition that the US did not station them, according to Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov. However, now the US has, in fact, destroyed everything that remained of the treaty and the responsibility for a new round of international tension and the arms race is entirely theirs.
Exercises, exercises and, once more, exercises
The deployment of Typhon in the Philippines fits fully into the US strategy of strengthening its military presence in Asia Pacific. Here the geographical factor is of importance; given the location of the Philippines, the US can use its armed forces in this region to influence both the situation in the South China Sea and the solution of the Taiwan problem and build – first and foremost – a system of containment of China. The Salaknib-2024 exercises, in which US complexes were delivered to Luzon, are just one of the many manifestations of the island state’s alliance with the US. US-Philippine cooperation includes regular consultations, visits by military delegations and joint manoeuvres, which are becoming more intense and diverse. For example, this year alone saw the first dialogue in the 2 + 2 format between the Ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs of the two countries, the largest joint exercises (‘Balikatan’) involving other interested parties and the Air Force exercises ‘Cope Thunder’ have already taken place twice.
A new training centre created by the US military has also started to operate. On the tiny island of Banco, which is located closest to Taiwan, in the line of sight, the US has deployed a command post. In addition, the Philippine Air Force took part in the multifaceted ‘Pitch Black’ exercises in Australia, conducting such manoeuvres outside the country the first time.
In the future, the Philippines is considering the possibility of purchasing HIMARS and F-16 fighter jets from the US. There are plans to expand cooperation in the field of cybersecurity and intelligence sharing.
In general, the US, being confident that this can help in deterring not only China, but also Russia in the Asia-Pacific region, intends to invest half a billion dollars in arming its ally in Southeast Asia in the near future.
The bilateral US-Philippine alliance is based on the Mutual Defence Treaty (1951)
Its terms stipulate that the parties provide “individual and joint potential to repel military attacks” and in case of a threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity, they intend to “hold consultations”.
Interestingly, both the US and the Philippines (to a lesser extent, of course) violate this treaty. Its first article states that “the parties undertake to settle any international disputes in which they become involved by peaceful means, so as not to create threats to international peace, security and justice, and to refrain in international relations from force or threats of force in any way inconsistent with the UN Charter”. Needless to say, for Washington, this is just a collection of words that no one intended to follow.
It is also noteworthy that the document does not contain strict norms regarding immediate mutual assistance and a joint military response, leaving the US side the opportunity to speculate on this vagueness, which it has repeatedly done, as if holding the Philippines on the hook and manipulating them, forcing them to wait for explanations during each of the numerous exacerbations of the Philippines’ territorial dispute with China: does this case fall within the competence of the treaty? Is the US ready to intervene in the conflict? So far, the signals are affirmative and the probability of escalation remains high.
Another key document of allied relations is the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement from 2014. Its main result is the re-appearance of US bases in the Philippines twenty years after their initial withdrawal from the territory of the Asian state.
The Philippines are turning into…
The previous moment of strengthening US-Philippine cooperation was during the presidency of B. Aquino. The next president of the Philippines, R. Duterte, was known for his anti-US sentiments, but distancing itself from the US and cooperation with China did not help the Philippines in resolving the dispute in the South China Sea or in solving security problems in general. On the contrary, China became more active and aggressive in the South China Sea, as if feeling the insufficiency of its counterpart’s potential, who had previously become accustomed to relying on external sources of assistance. Under F. Marcos, who came to power in 2022, relations with the US have significantly strengthened again. Despite all the assurances that he intends to pursue an “independent foreign policy” and does not seek confrontation, the new administration’s tilt towards deepening the alliance with the US is clear.
On the one hand, this is due to the fact that the Philippines is feverishly looking for external assistance, considering the territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, which they have not yet managed to resolve on their own, nor to reach some kind of solution with the help of, say, the consolidated position of ASEAN, which is also currently missing. On the other hand, further internationalisation of territorial disputes is unlikely to benefit a region that is ready to flare up like a match at any moment. The United States as an ‘ally’ is also a lost cause for any state and people. Instead of paying attention to its socio-economic development, to its geopolitical and negotiating potential, to the development of relations within ASEAN and solving problems in bilateral relations or at least on a regional scale, the Philippines under Marcos Jr. chooses a different path and turns from an independent country into an instrument of influence of the former coloniser, a figure on the chessboard that will be moved from across the ocean. Will the Filipino people like the new round of partnership with the US? Being occupied by US bases is a dubious pleasure, as residents of Japan, for example, can confirm, no longer knowing where to turn to complain about them.
In general, the entirety of Southeast Asia feels negative consequences of the growth of the US military presence because, largely thanks to the Philippines, it has become a region where parts of the US armed forces of all kinds feel like home. The constant presence of a foreign army on their land adds neither security nor social stability. Large-scale protests against the US military presence are already underway in the Philippines. The country risks finally turning into a satellite, whose policy the US will direct as it pleases. Moreover, they are already doing this; just take a look at the results of voting on anti-Russian documents at the UN. The fragile balance of interests in ASEAN is also under attack, although, it would seem, historically all the independent Southeast Asian states have sought to be multi-vector, embody the principles of anti-colonialism and prevent external influence in the region.
Russia values friendship with the adequately acting politicians of the Philippines and cooperation with the sensible part of Filipino society, which is committed to contact, development of relations, independence and a real multi-vector foreign policy. We would still like to believe that this state will be able to find its own foreign policy course. However, so far, the situation looks depressing from the outside and once again brings to mind the problem of neocolonialism in the modern world. The US military and political onslaught in the Philippines is a new manifestation of it – and it seems that it is far from the last.
Ksenia Muratshina, PhD in History, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
