According to recent reports, Israel, under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu, is doing everything in its power to prevent the cessation of hostilities in Gaza and is trying to provoke Iran into starting a regional conflict. Israel believes that such actions will help resolve some aspects of strategic security in the future.
Israel continues to test Iran’s military capabilities. What are the aims of such tests?
The conflict in Gaza still cannot be brought to a logical conclusion. Neither US diplomatic efforts nor the support of Middle Eastern countries can solve the problem. The recent negotiations in Doha failed to produce the expected results in terms of hostage exchanges and a cessation of hostilities.
The Hamas representative in Lebanon, Ahmad Abdul Hadi, revealed the above information in an interview with Sky News. He gave his version of the events: firstly, the contentious issues have not been resolved, and secondly, Netanyahu has put forward new conditions, thus complicating the negotiations. The next round of talks is scheduled for September. Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, US President Joe Biden is trying to reassure Hamas allies not to start a conflict.
It is worth noting that it was Netanyahu’s policy that largely provoked the military conflict of 7 October. There is no doubt that Israel wants to prevent the solution of the Palestinian question. In addition, Israel intends to establish its own unconditional control over the Gaza Strip and the sea coast, and to use the international forces of the Western coalition to militarily defeat the main regional opponents of the Jewish state: Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
This is the main threat to Israel’s security because it is Tehran that is pursuing an anti-Zionist policy, initiating military support for the Palestinian movement and forming a resistance front.
Israeli Intelligence Community and the Israel Defense Forces regularly carry out targeted sabotage operations to eliminate key IRGC officers in Iraq and Syria, as well as bombing military and research facilities in Iran itself. Most recently, the former head of the Hamas politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. In addition, the sudden plane crash and death of President Ebrahim Raisi and other officials remains unsolved.
Israel knows that such operations provoke Iran to retaliate. Each time, the provocations become more widespread, which could subsequently exacerbate the conflict between the countries.
Will Iran take revenge for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh?
After the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, many experts and serious publications began to consider various theories of a likely Iranian response.
Some claimed that Iran would strike on 12 or 13 August, the days of Tisha B’Av. But nothing happened on those days. Others believe that the likely Iranian response would be localised and would not lead to a large-scale conflict with Israel and the US. Arguments include Iran’s inability to weaken US and Israeli military power, the lack of a direct border and the fact that Haniyeh is of Arab ethnicity and no Iranians were injured in the terrorist attack. Others believe that neither the US nor Iran wants to be drawn into a major military confrontation, which could have serious destructive consequences. There is a view that Tehran will not direct its response at Israeli territory, but will limit itself to a strike on the border countries where, according to the Iranians, Israeli military facilities are located that have been used in anti-Iranian actions by the Israeli security services.
It should be noted at the outset that Iran is unlikely to divulge information about the direction, content and timing of a strike before it is launched. As a result, the response will require time and concentration of forces. Iran may claim that it is delaying its response and awaiting the outcome of ceasefire negotiations with Hamas. But in reality, Tehran is simply taking its time and keeping Israel and its allies in suspense.
The technical intelligence capabilities of Israel’s allies have a high probability of detecting Iranian military and technical preparations. However, technical intelligence cannot determine the mindset of the Iranian leadership.
Within Iran itself, a complex debate is taking place at the highest levels. Perhaps the proponents of a moderate reformist course are more inclined to negotiate with the West. But no one can dismiss the conservative forces, led by the IRGC, who regard inaction as a disgrace.
Israel is provoking Iran to launch a cross-border attack on Azerbaijan. What can this lead to?
Recently, theories have been circulating about various indications of a possible Iranian response to Israel with a strike on the Jewish state’s military facilities. Most likely, this could happen on the territory of Azerbaijan along the Aras River. Perhaps such statements were the result of provocations by Azerbaijan’s opponents and Iranian-Azerbaijani good-neighbourliness. However, after some statements from the Israeli side, this theory began to gain new arguments.
Firstly, on the night of 12 August, the Israeli TV channel “11 KAN” announced that the Israeli army had ordered its soldiers to leave the territories of Azerbaijan and Georgia. The reason given was the threat of an attack from Iran. The official authorities of Israel did not comment on this statement in any way and caused confusion in the same Azerbaijan and Georgia. It follows from this text that the Israeli military is present in these countries of the South Caucasus. But in what status? Is Tel Aviv indirectly confirming Iran’s version of the location of Israeli military facilities on the territory of Azerbaijan?
Secondly, the Israeli expert Roman Tsypin recently stated that there are 4 air bases of the Israeli armed forces on the territory of Azerbaijan. Such an assertion cannot go unnoticed by Iran and Azerbaijan.
However, Israel is one of Azerbaijan’s most important military partners in terms of supplying advanced weaponry (including drones, missile and artillery systems, optics, air defence systems, small arms). Israeli UAV operators provided advice and other assistance to their Azerbaijani counterparts during the Second Karabakh War. And now cargo flights with weapons are being sent to Azerbaijan from the Israeli military base “Ovda”, and Azerbaijani oil is being delivered to Israel via the territory of Turkey. How can Israel be interested in the escalation of military tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan?
It is said that in politics there are neither friends nor enemies. Israel is pursuing a policy of bringing the states bordering Iran closer together, but this comes at a high price in financial and geopolitical terms. If Tel Aviv expects to draw the US and NATO into a war against Iran, a Persian attack on Azerbaijan should draw Turkey into the conflict. Tel Aviv has a special page of strained relations with Ankara, which Israel will not forgive. What should the US do in this situation, if not intervene?
But a military strike against Azerbaijan would put Russia in a difficult position. Moscow faces a choice. If Moscow supports Baku, it will lose Tehran, and vice versa. For Russia today, Iran is a key partner in terms of military-technical and energy cooperation, it is the main exit through the North-South ITC project to the Persian Gulf, the Arab East and Asia. But Azerbaijan is also of special interest to the Russian authorities because of its geography (without which there will be no North-South project through the South Caucasus), its strategic alliance with Turkey (with which Russia has many trade, economic and other ties) and, finally, the well-known alliance agreement of 22 February 2022, which includes an article on military partnership. But it is precisely this rupture in Russian-Azerbaijani relations that the USA wants to achieve in order to enter the Turkic part of Central Asia on the shoulders of the Turkish project of neo-Panturanism.
There is no doubt that the stakes are rising by the day. Russia is interested in excluding such scenarios of escalation of military and political tensions in the Transcaucasus. Obviously, the visit of Russian President V.V. Putin to Baku will help maintain stability and peace in the Transcaucasus. Putin’s visit to Baku will help maintain stability and peace in the region. Perhaps Azerbaijan was in a hurry to get rid of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the same Karabakh because the factor of the Russian flag can change the plans of non-Russian hawks.
Alexander SVARANTS – PhD of Political Science, Professor, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
