The situation in South Asia over the past few weeks has been marked by a number of notable events, of which the dramatic developments in Bangladesh deserve special attention.
Coup in Bangladesh
Let us start with the obvious — namely by repeating the observation that the pace of events in the current stage of the Great Global Game has speeded up, as always happens when there is a radical change in the general direction of events. There was not enough time for NEO to comment on the most significant aspects of the trip of Sheikh Hasina to India and China, two major players in current global processes, as just a month after her trip, on August 6, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister was forced out of office and, according to global media reports, had to flee the country at short notice, “fearing for her life.”
Her departure was provoked by mass demonstrations in which students and other young people played a decisive role. The authorities used firearms in their crackdown on the protests, resulting in hundreds of deaths, and the protests themselves have become a threat to the current government.
The immediate cause of the unrest was the decision to expand the number of positions in public office reserved for members of the political clan led by Sheikh Hasina, whose family headed the liberation movement of the former “East Pakistan” which became known as Bangladesh upon its independence in 1971. This is an extremely sore point for young people, especially those with a higher education. And this applies not only to developing countries such as Bangladesh, but to almost everywhere in the world.
Commentators are unanimous in noting the clear progress made on development since Sheikh Hasina’s government came to power in 2009. However, the accelerating turbulence in the international arena could not but have a negative impact on the economy of the country, which is already to a large extent incorporated into the global economy.
One factor in the recent dramatic events was undoubtedly the uncompromising struggle between competing political forces, which has been under way ever since Bangladesh gained independence. Suffice it to mention the assassination in 1975 of almost the entire family of Mujibur Rahman, one of the leaders of the liberation movement, of whom only Sheikh Hasina survived.
Moreover, her implacable opponent Khaleda Zia (whose husband and president Ziaur Rahman was also assassinated in 1981), the leader of the main opposition force, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has been under house arrest for several years. Her immediate release was one of the protesters’ main demands. This demand was carried out by the military, who have taken over the running of the country. They also dissolved the Parliament, another demand of the protesters.
But that raises a difficult issue, one which poses serious challenges to Bangladesh’s statehood. After all, the dissolved Parliament was formed following general elections held, as per schedule, as recently as January this year. The BNP did not participate in the elections, and refused to recognize their outcome. But it was the BNP leader’s own decision to boycott the election, while forcibly dissolving the current parliament could set a dangerous precedent. What guarantee is there that the results of the next (“fairer”) elections, which the military leadership has, it seems, promised will be held, will not be challenged using exactly the same methods?
Reactions in India and China
The dramatic events in Bangladesh, a strategically located country of 170 million people, which relatively recently began to be regarded as one of the promising new “engines” of the global economy, have not gone unnoticed by the leading world players. Their official reactions were similar, and consisted of an expression of hopes that the crisis would be resolved quickly.
That is, more or less, the response of Bangladesh’s two most interested and important neighbors, India and China. Thus, the day after Sheikh Hasina’s departure from the country, a spokesman of the Chinese foreign ministry stated that “China is closely following the developments in Bangladesh,” adding that “China sincerely hopes that social stability will be restored soon in the country.”
And on August 8, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wished success to the interim government of Bangladesh, which 84-year-old microfinance specialist Muhammad Yunus has agreed to lead. It was he who the protesters “advised” should be appointed to the position.
Many commentators have suggested that it is India that will suffer foreign policy losses as a result of the changes taking place in Bangladesh, as Sheikh Hasina is believed to have pro-India sentiments. That, however, is clearly an exaggeration. The only evidence to support such suspicions is the fact that she has staunchly opposed attempts to persecute the Hindu minority, but that position was largely in line with Bangladesh’s own interests. In fact, under Sheikh Hasina Bangladesh focused (quite successfully) on balancing the force fields created by its two great neighbors, and doing what it could to reduce the discord between them. Her last foreign trips, referred to above, were devoted to maintaining this balance.
Be that as it may, it has been reported that after the de-facto coup over seven thousand Indian students opted to cut off their studies in Bangladesh and return to India.
International Air Force exercises in India, and European participation in these exercises
Many commentators have noted that the coup in Bangladesh coincided with the first multinational air combat exercises, involving air force units from ten countries, that began on August 6 in the south of India (in the state of Tamil Nadu, adjacent to the Bay of Bengal). The said exercise will be conducted in two phases, of which the second will be held in September in northern India.
In relation to these exercises, commentators have focused on two circumstances. First, in addition to India, six NATO countries are also participating, and this is seen as a fulfilment of the bloc’s goal of extending its area of responsibility to the Indo-Pacific region. Second, the “China factor” has been named as one of the motives behind the exercises. It is clear that a complex event of this kind must have been planned well in advance, and so the fact that it has coincided with the events in Bangladesh discussed in this article may well be pure coincidence. Nevertheless, the “warning” message conveyed to Beijing by the exercises could not go unanswered.
It is also difficult once again to refrain from expressing bewilderment at the increasingly visible involvement of European countries in the complex relations between the two Asian giants, and their clear preference for one of them (something which, as already noted, Sheikh Hasina avoided doing). Of the 6 NATO countries participating in the exercises under discussion, 5 are in Europe. Significantly, Italy, whose Prime Minister recently paid a visit to China with quite positive results, is not involved in the exercises.
As for the leading European country, the real disaster for Germany, which is participating in the exercises (and in other events) has been its the current “traffic light” coalition government. What can we say about the reckless Green Foreign Minister, a former trampoline gymnast? The current Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, is a more seasoned politician, and we may well ask what it is that drives him to send warships and aircraft to various exercises with an explicitly anti-China scenario on the other side of the globe. As for their boss, Olaf Scholz, he has demonstrated a measured approach regarding each of the Asian giants, showing no clear preference for either.
Pakistan’s role in the regional games
Finally, there is another upcoming event that could prove to be a serious challenge to maintaining stability in South Asia. These are the scheduled local elections in the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which are to be held before the end of September this year.
Readers will remember that until the summer of 2019, these territories had a higher status, that of a state with a special position in India’s Constitution. It appears likely that the upcoming elections will be accompanied by a marked increase in the activities of armed separatist groups engaged in the region and with a more aggressively anti-Indian tone in Pakistan’s official rhetoric in relation to the Kashmir problem. Moreover, Islamabad also clearly still has an interest in the situation in Bangladesh.
All in all, there is considerable turbulence in South Asia.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
