Political and geopolitical goals and approaches
India has had a historical and civilizational relationship with the South Caucasus for more than several millennia. In 1992, India recognized the independence of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
In the last decade, bilateral relations between the countries of Armenia and India have been developing through mechanisms for regular political consultation and cooperation between parliaments.
While Armenia sees India and Iran as new strategic options, India wants to play a global role in international developments and have a greater foothold and strategic depth in the region.
It also seems that New Delhi, following the policy of multiple commitments and the pursuit of a multipolar world, tries to be sure that its relations with Washington do not prevent cooperation or joint opportunities with other actors, such as Russia and Iran, in the South Caucasus region.
In general, the interests of India-Iran and Russia-India in the South Caucasus are complementary to each other to a large extent; increasing India’s presence in the South Caucasus is also important for Iran and Russia.
India’s geopolitical influence in the South Caucasus has increased dramatically in the past few years and relations with Armenia have been friendly.
But despite several previous meetings between Indian and Azeri officials, relations collapsed in 2020 after Azerbaijan-Pakistan-Turkey joined the war with Armenia.
Since 2021, with Islamabad’s declaration, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Pakistan support each other’s positions on Kashmir, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh. The main concern of New Delhi is that Ankara-Baku will focus their power on Kashmir.
India has become a key partner of Armenia in military and technical cooperation in order to curb the increase in support for Pakistan in Kashmir, to deal more with Azerbaijan-Pakistan-Turkey ties in the South Caucasus and has become the largest arms exporter to Armenia with an estimated of $2 billion.
In December 2023, President Aliyev criticized India for exporting arms to Armenia and Ilham Aliyev asked India to refrain from supplying defense equipment to Armenia. This was met with a negative reaction from India.
Also, India’s defense exports to the Armenia will be an incentive to significantly increase India’s defense production to more than 10 billion dollars.
India is set to commence the delivery of its locally developed Akash 1S air defense missile system to Armenia later this year.
“The enemy of my enemy is my friend”
India is almost neutral about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The logic of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” is also the basis of geopolitical cooperation and paved the way for national security cooperation, supporting each other’s positions and exchanging various Armenian and Indian delegations.
From a geopolitical point of view, apart from common security interests and concerns with Armenia, expansion of presence in strategic areas and joint military exercises, exchange of bilateral meetings, military-technical cooperation, training, joint military exercises, etc. can be increased.
In addition, India is trying to move in a more independent and effective way in the region according to Indian values and norms such as “non-violence”.
While diplomatic relations between Baku and New Delhi are unfavorable, India continues to strengthen relations with Armenia in all aspects of bilateral relations, including political, trade and economic, consular, energy, agriculture, and connectivity.
Economic and geoeconomic goals and approaches
India attaches great importance to economic diplomacy in its foreign policy. India’s presence in trade with the region is small compared to its competitors’ superior position, and it seeks to become an economic powerhouse in the South Caucasus.
The region has a suitable environment for India’s advanced pharmaceutical industry. New Delhi also has a look at this potential in Armenia and Georgia.
In recent years, the interest of Indian companies in the Armenian economy and investment in Armenia is significant, collaborations are underway in the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) program.
The emergence of India as a major player in the field of information technology (IT) has provided a suitable platform for the closeness of India and Armenia. In fact, the effort to invest in Armenia expands the market for Indian products.
The western route of the North-South International Transport Corridor (INSTC) passes through the South Caucasus. The volume of rail transport along the INSTC has increased in 2023.
Recently, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that Armenia could indeed become a transit country between India and Europe, and India and Russia. Also, Iran’s Ambassador to Yerevan, Mehdi Sobhani, recently announced Armenia’s interest in opening a representation in the port of Chabahar.
On May 13, India also signed a 10-year agreement with Iran on Chabahar, which gives India and Armenia an opportunity to further connect with Eurasia and Europe through Iran at the INSTC. This will enable the transportation of goods from India to Armenia and EAEU.
India is expanding trade with Armenia due to the Eurasian Economic Union. Armenia is also India’s bridge to the Eurasian Economic Union.
The importance of increasing the volume of annual trade between Armenia and India has reached one billion dollars.
India is becoming the third-largest economy in the world and continued its business activities by organizing a large number of meetings to promote Indian exports.
Earlier, Armenia proposed a Persian Gulf-Black Sea corridor to connect India to Russia and Europe. Meanwhile, Armenia and Georgia can help connect India to Europe and Russia.
Vision
INSTC reduces shipping time and shipping costs. Also, the route of INSTC through Armenia or the implementation of the project, the railway line in Armenia and northwest Iran to Russia or the Black Sea is beneficial for India in terms of geo-economics and logistics.
Despite some political, geopolitical, economic and cultural challenges, in practice, New Delhi expands opportunities by bypassing obstacles such as the lack of a land border with Armenia.
In fact, it seems that Armenia also wants to better the relationship with India and increase the relative role of New Delhi in the region with the geopolitical and geoeconomic situation.
Considering India’s various geopolitical interests and needs, and India’s increasing global position, gaining more power in the diplomatic, economic, technological, and soft power fields, India’s wider presence in the South Caucasus will become more practical.
India is a new actor in the South Caucasus and, along with other actors, can play an anchor role in the South Caucasus. Easier visas and new business opportunities have led to a sharp increase in Indian immigration to the region (for example, between 20,000 and 30,000 in Armenia).
Signing agreements such as a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) can increase India’s presence in the region.
Farzad Bonesh ‒ geopolitical and geoeconomic analyst, researcher and writer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
