While all the world is focused on the newest member of NATO, the EU or BRICS, another Card Game has opened with interesting players joining the game, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, (SCO) an organization that few know much about or have even heard of – at least until now.
Not to repeat what is in the MSM, both pro and con, over the recent a two-day summit in Kazakhstan of the SCO, a regional association, being one most promoted by Beijing and Moscow as a viable alternative to Western influence, where a new kid has joined, and of all countries, a bit far from Asia, that new member is Belarus
Lukashenko has sought SCO membership for 15 years, and now it is official, Belarus has joined SCO as its 10th member, much to the dismay of the collective West who sees Belarus as a thorn in their side for siding with Russia in its special military operation, and letting third-party migrants slip through its border with the EU in mass, and that is only a few of the perceived sins of a close ally of the Russian Federation.
But what does it mean?
The SCO is more than just an economic forum; it’s a platform for military and economic cooperation. It also promotes common approaches to external security threats such as drug trafficking and also focuses on countering any domestic instability, especially that fomented by western states.
The main goals of the SCO are strengthening mutual confidence and good-neighborly relations among the member countries; promoting effective cooperation in politics, trade and economy, science and technology, culture as well as education, energy, transportation, tourism, environmental protection and other fields.
Major Western media outlets have either criticized the SCO or ignored it altogether. However, this organization, with its members and associate members, has the potential to be a game changer and will likely go down in history as such.
The leaders of the countries in the SCO represent 80% of the Eurasian landmass, 40% of the global population, and nearly 30% of the world’s GDP.
This should be a wake-up call: there is no room for bluffing in this New Great Game. Nonetheless, Eurasian integration is progressing rapidly, driven by bloody conflicts, external interference in Asian nations’ affairs, and the growing unreliability of the US dollar as a stable global currency. Greater interest in alternative economic and security organizations are made all the more relevant with the US propensity to revert to arbitrary sanctions and other forms of economic and political arm-twisting with its mood swings.
These wild fluctuations, especially in the US dollar, challenge the world to look for alternatives to Western institutions that have apparently been high-jacked for western political ends, especially under the stewardship of Biden and his minions. This weaponization of international institutions has upset conventional wisdom, and diminished trust in the West to look after anyone else’s interests other than its own.
Lukashenka, the leader of Belarus, considers the Belarusian entry into the SCO as being “historic.” It is clear, as sarcastically described by Radio Free Europe, that Lukashenka understands the need to “destroy the unipolar world” and take on responsibility for “global security” because “the narcissistic, selfish West proved incapable of it”
“There are no leaders there [in the West] capable of making responsible decisions independently,” he said.
How will the West Respond?
It is clear that the world is changing, and the window is open for all kinds of new initiatives; however, the question remains how the West will try to interfere, as this move is only logical for smaller countries.
The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, where Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, further confirmed the close and sustainable China-Russia partnership for wider consumption.
Counterbalance to Western Hegemony
What is especially threatening to the West is the potential that the SCO may evolved into a military counterbalance to the US and NATO activities, and, in parallel, evolve into an economic rival to the EU. One thing is certain, it does represent a significant geopolitical consolidation of economic and political clout, with the potential in the short run to leave its mark on geopolitical issues.
Its activities and growing influence in Eurasia can both directly and indirectly affect the strategic interests of both NATO and the EU. How it will evolve depends largely on the reaction of the West, and how no action is isolated from an equal and opposite reaction.
The SCO is fast becoming an effective counterbalance to Western influence, with significant implications for global geopolitics. This alliance doesn’t just affect Belarus; the recent summit saw Turkey, a NATO member, suggesting it could mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as possibly join the SCO itself., though how this would square with its NATO commitments is considered a problem by Moscow, and, quite likely, Beijing.
The idea must also be concerning NATO leaders, as Turkey’s contribution to the overall power of NATO is significant, to say the least, with the Turkish military being 3rd in strength after the US and UK, and well ahead of any other member below it. It is apparent that Turkey’s desire to maintain good relations with Moscow is causing concern, while its raising the issue of joining the SCO must be giving them nightmares. As with Belarus joining the SCO, this is a self-inflicted wound for the EU and US, after the decades long stalling of Turkish membership of the EU.
Belarus’s opportunity to be an active participant, as its newest member, in the SCO reflects its broader foreign policy strategy to engage with Eurasian partners, defy Western Europe, and leverage the organization’s platform to enhance its own national interests and regional influence in the face of the EU and NATO threats.
As with the EU or any member, there is always the possibly, with more members the focus will be diluted, and the SCO can only become weaker; however, this is likely not the case here, as the location of Belarus on the border of the EU, and with the strong support of China and Russia, means the country can act as a bastion against further NATO expansion, especially now the Belarusian military has access to Russian nuclear weapons.
A further development has been the joint Belarus-Chinese exercises, named “Eagle Assault”, held in the Belarusian city of Brest, a mere 5km from the country’s border with Poland. This exercise has been timed to send a message to NATO that its interference in the Asia–Pacific region, and its rhetoric targeting China as an enemy of NATO, has been duly noted, and that Europeans may not be as safe from Chinese retaliation in the event of war over Taiwan as they might like to think.
Belarus joining the SCO has allowed further diversity in the strategic options of its two biggest members, Russia and China. What is particularly amusing is the NATO propaganda describing the SCO as a threat to peace, as it is NATO that has been an aggressive, expansionist power that has conducted wars of choice from the Balkans, through North Africa and the Middle East, all the way to Afghanistan, and now aims to expand its operations to the Pacific while pouring weapons into Ukraine for the express purpose of killing Russians and maintaining its ever more teetering hegemony.
Regardless, I think we can all agree, the SCO’s enlarged membership will serve as a counterweight to the US-led Old World Order, as times are changing, and the sooner, the better!
Henry Kamens, columnist, expert on Central Asia and Caucasus, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
