On June 6, 2024, in Beijing, the governments of Uzbekistan, China and Kyrgyzstan signed a cooperation agreement on the joint promotion of the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway project. The document establishes mechanisms for financing construction, project implementation, as well as a number of other issues, including those on which the three previously did not share a common, fixed position. What will this railway give Eurasia, for whom will it become a challenge and for whom an opportunity?
On June 6, 2024, the governments of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and China signed a trilateral cooperation agreement on the joint promotion of the railway project. It finally establishes the basic principles of the railway’s implementation, the configuration of its route and estimates the construction time and costs. Earlier, the successes in promoting this trilateral initiative were also highlighted in various ‘New Eastern Outlook’ articles, but this time it is about getting the main parameters of the final project approved at the highest level. That is why in this article the emphasis will no longer be on the technical details of the railway, but on the promising impact that it can have on the development of cooperation and partnership in the vast expanses of Eurasia.
Benefits for participants
The range of opportunities that the railway will certainly create for the countries participating in the project seems obvious. For China, the development of this project may already become the fifth (and probably one of the shortest) railway corridor for connecting national manufacturers with the European market, as well as the most convenient route for railway access to Central and South Asia, as well as the Middle East. For Uzbekistan, this is a significant project that will ensure the country’s role as one of the key transport hubs in Eurasia, making the country a crossroads of important corridors. Such success of the republic is also important from the point of view of strengthening strategic cooperation with China, the most promising partner in terms of bilateral trade. Similarly, everything is simple with Kyrgyzstan: located in a mountainous area at the eastern tip of the region, the republic has gained access to projects on a continental scale, as well as the ‘key’ to solving the urgent task of national development, the key being to create a unified national railway network. But what does the promotion of this project mean for other Eurasian players?
Distinct hints to competitors
The conclusion of such an agreement, which concludes the decades-long negotiation process, is certainly a significant political and economic event for the entire continent. At the same time, it may signal a number of things to other countries claiming to be a transit country and a participant in continental transport infrastructure aimed at ensuring cargo turnover between China and Europe. For example, Mongolia has long been one of such contenders. About 20% of rail freight traffic on the China-Europe route currently passes through Mongolia. In particular, the agreement on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan transport line has revealed to the world another (now quite tangible) competitor to the Mongolian corridors, work on which has progressed much further than on any of the three Mongolian projects of this type. Consequently, the current situation, in which the road project through Kyrgyzstan has reached new progress, seems to force Mongolian politicians to consider a more accommodating position in the trilateral Russian-Chinese-Mongolian negotiations on transit corridors. If the trend towards intense development of Central Asian transport lines continues (this is highly likely), Mongolia may be side-lined from all transport infrastructure projects of continental importance.
On the other hand, Mongolia’s experience in working out an agreement on the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway may also cause backlash, since it is an example of how a small state was able to make two larger countries agree to its vision of a trilateral project. The Kyrgyz counterparts were able to defend their proposed configuration of their railway section by moving the line several hundred kilometres to the north, closer to the existing branch of the national railways, as well as to the key industrial centres of the republic. At the same time, Bishkek also managed to achieve the project financing model that suits it, avoiding the need to pay for its land completely out of pocket.
Turkmenistan and Iran: the western extension of the railway
The aforementioned agreement may also be of serious importance for Turkmenistan and Iran. Since the railway passing through Kyrgyzstan runs quite a bit south of the busiest transit lines passing through China, Kazakhstan and Russia (the so-called northern corridors), the implementation of the road through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan opens up new opportunities for the development of the southern corridor, the key participants of which may be Turkmenistan and Iran. Being the main operator of continental transport infrastructure, China’s interest in a southern corridor is longstanding. It is worth mentioning the construction of an extended railway line in Iran focused on providing cargo transportation from China to Europe.
This project is also interesting for Afghanistan, as the railway passing through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will provide the shortest path from China to the trans-Afghan railway and thereby simplify railway communication between the two countries. After signing the agreement, President of Uzbekistan S. Mirziyoyev announced that this project would be joined with the Trans-Afghan Railway
Kazakh reaction to the success: competition or partnership?
Kazakhstan is also seeking to minimise its losses from the promotion of a new railway alternative to national projects. During the meeting of the Presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan earlier this year, K. Zh. Tokayev invited his Uzbek colleagues to jointly implement transport and infrastructure projects, among which he mentioned the modernisation of the republic’s Caspian ports. Astana is most likely already actively working on plans to connect the railway network of western Kazakhstan and the country’s largest ports with the main line running from China to Uzbekistan.
Thus, the signing of the intergovernmental agreement has become a significant event in the continental race of transport and infrastructure projects, bringing to the table new consideration in most of the currently promoted, constructed or theorised transport infrastructure and corridors.
Bair DANZANOV, independent expert on Central Asia and Mongolia, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”
