During their first joint summit held in Niamey, the capital of Niger, on Saturday, the military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed a treaty according to which the trio became a confederation. This comes just a few months after their departure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January.
The confederation, formally the Confederation of the Alliance of Sahel States, is a “step towards greater integration” between the countries. The new confederation builds upon the mutual defence pact signed by the trio last year in September. This pact (i.e. the ‘Alliance of Sahel States’) aims to repel mutual threats and assist one another in the case of outside aggression. According to the pact’s provisions, signatories are bound to help each other if even one of them is attacked – just like NATO’s Article 5. The pact is open to new members in the case that the candidate accepts all provisions and the trio unanimously agree on the decision.
Biggest threats to the region
The Sahel region is unfortunately notorious for its high levels of violence. According to the latest issue of the Global Terrorism Index, there is a strong link between organised crime and terrorism in this region. Terrorism is on the rise, and the Sahel accounts for almost half of all deaths from terrorism globally. The Sahel region encompasses several other countries; however the most concerning dynamics are being witnessed in the Central Sahel, i.e. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, particularly in Liptako-Gourma. Located on the borders of all three states, it has become a hotbed of unprecedented security threats since 2012, including the operation of radical groups, organised crime, banditry, violent community conflicts. The constant political instability has led to weak state control of rural territories. This is further exacerbated by cross-border operations of armed groups and rising violent extremism. Currently, the most widespread types of illicit activities by terrorist groups in this area include cattle and livestock rustling, artisanal gold mining, drug trafficking, kidnapping and ransoms.
In a joint statement, Assimi Goïta of Mali, Ibrahim Traoré of Burkina Faso and Abdourahamane Tchiani of Niger praised the cooperation between their countries within the scope of their alliance, particularly in the sphere of combatting terrorism, and committed to deepen cooperation and integration among themselves. The trio will particularly focus on the Liptako-Gourma (by the way, the document that established the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is called the Liptako-Gourma Charter).
A combination of other factors also greatly impacts this region. According to the IMF, the Sahel region has some of the lowest figures for GDP per capita and share of global GDP based on PPP of all the countries in the world. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have a combined population of approximately 80 million people and have some of the fastest population growth rates in the world. Also, the Sahel region sees intense shifts in climate, bouncing from heavy rainfall to drought and experiencing temperature rise 1.5 times as fast as the rest of the world. Widespread and growing desertification contributes additional strain to the region.
Areas of coordination and cooperation
Signing the mutual defence pact and then deciding to form a confederation is, of course, a clear sign that the trio wants to solve common problems more effectively, however, the formation of a confederation in itself will not become a blanket solution; there are clear obstacles before the trio, and they must effectively overcome them by coordinating properly.
According to the Liptako-Gourma Charter, the parties are to commit themselves to combatting terrorism and organised crime on their territory, and they will “subsequently set up the bodies necessary for the operation and subsequent mechanisms of the Alliance will define the modalities of its operation”. Article 15 builds upon this, stipulating that the “charter shall by supplemented with additional texts”. In covering the recent news of the formation of the confederation, Al Sharq Al Awsat and Al Jazeera rightfully point out that it is not yet clear how exactly the trio will approach solving shared issues. For now, a joint force has been established by the trio, and it will become operational as soon as possible, likely signalling that a counterterrorism operation is in the works. There have not been any further clarifications, but it can be expected that there are also plans to raise interoperability between national armies.
In recent months there have also been discussions of the trio ditching the West African franc (CFA), with criticism of the currency and its French colonial legacy increasing throughout the region. Commenting this issue, Abdourahamane Tchiani said in February: “Currency is a sign of sovereignty… The AES member states are engaged in the process of recovering their full sovereignty. It is no longer acceptable for our states to be France’s cash cow”. Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are all members of the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which uses the CFA franc (pegged to the euro) as its common currency. Peter Doyle, former senior staff member at the IMF, expressed the opinion that while exiting the CFA franc zone is difficult, it is certainly not impossible nor necessarily detrimental if certain conditions are met, including “shoring up budgets and securing an adequate stockpile of international reserves”. The trio will have to “address security challenges, resolve governance issues and strike a deal early on to split the balance sheet of the Central Bank of West African States between those departing and those remaining”.
Another issue for the trio to consider is that they are landlocked. Arrangements with countries with access to the coastline, probably Togo and Côte d’Ivoire – regional logistics and transit hubs – will have to be made. Morocco’s ‘Royal Initiative on Sahel Countries’ Access to the Atlantic’ is also an option.
Reactions
Although the trio declared their break from ECOWAS, there are no provisions for immediate withdrawal and the process will thus at least a year to be finalised. ECOWAS Commission President, Omar Touray, expressed the organisation’s disappointment regarding the soured relations with the trio. Additionally, he said that the trio’s withdrawal from ECOWAS could result in the Sahel region’s security situation deteriorating, as well as negatively impacting other areas; freedom of movement and the common market, in which there are 400 million participants – one of ECOWAS’ main benefits – will also be at risk. ECOWAS has also hinted at a possible embargo.
As the trio has voiced, however, this bridge has been burned – at least for now. ECOWAS’ harsh sanctions in response to changes in leadership were accused of being inhumane, targeting civilians and guided by external pressure, and the organisation’s inability to effectively curb violence in the region, particularly from Islamist extremism, serve as the reasons for the trio’s decision of departure from the regional bloc. Also, public sentiment also largely leans anti-ECOWAS, which is considered to be under foreign (mostly French) influence.
US analyst Dan M. Ford writes that the Sahelian trio’s defence pact and confederation “makes a mockery of US policy”. As is well known, the Sahel countries have recently been drifting closer to non-Western states, particularly Russia and China. France, the former colonial power, has largely been expelled from the region, and the US military is being thrown out by Niger and Chad; other countries of the region may soon follow suit.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, former Foreign Minister of Mauritania, former UN diplomat to Sudan, Somalia and West Africa, expressed the view that Turkey, Russia, China, Iran will not destabilise this region. His opinion reflects the growing sentiment of many people in that region that Russia – as well as other countries – symbolises a multipolar world, in which African states and Africans will not be considered “house slaves”, as Captain Ibrahim Traoré puts it, rather as equal partners. The Sahel is turning its back on Western colonialism, and the formation of the Confederation of the Alliance of Sahel States is only the latest step in this ongoing process.
Vanessa Sevidova, researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the MGIMO MFA of Russia, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”