The overall features of the political situation in South Asia are determined mainly by the state of relations between three states – India, Pakistan, and China, and there have been a number of remarkable developments in these relations since the beginning of this year.
Some comments on the results of the upcoming general elections in India
The next round of general elections to the lower house of the Indian Parliament, which are held every five years, deserves special attention. This is a major event in the internal political life of a country with a population of one and a half billion and which is already numbered among the main participants in the current stage of the “Great World Game.”
The composition of India’s Central Parliament determines the partisan and personal allegiance of India’s Government, which plays the main role in determining the course of this federal nation. Today, India consists of 28 States and 8 Union Territories, most of which differ widely from each other in terms of their history, culture, ethnic and religious composition and their level of economic development.
In the run-up to the elections, various experts were fairly unanimous in predicting a third consecutive victory (after 2014 and 2019) for the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party. And it was assumed that the margin would be at least as wide as in the previous two elections.
The NDA did indeed come out on top, but the margin was far narrower than expected. It managed to secure a “simple” majority rather than a “constitutional” one as in the last two elections. In contrast, India’s oldest party, the Indian National Congress, which this time led a coalition known by the catchy acronym INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), has sharply strengthened its position (following its heavy setbacks in 2014 and 2019, and, in five states, in the recent local elections).
Particularly worthy of note is the convincing personal victory in two constituencies of Rahul Gandhi, a leading figure in both the INC and the INDIA coalition and a fourth-generation representative of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty which played such a key role in the formation of modern India. Still only 53-years old, the current representative of this dynasty is turning out to be a quite serious challenger to Narendra Modi, who, not so long ago, seemed to have no opponents worth speaking of in the Indian political arena.
The reasons for the unexpected results of the recent elections have been the subject of much discussion and analysis. Here we will look at what are probably the two main factors that contributed to the results. Firstly the BJP and Narendra Modi personally have clearly overreached themselves with their “aggressive and widespread” promotion of Hindutva, a populist Hindu nationalist movement with a huge membership in what was, at least originally, a secular state. In addition to this religious trend, the government recently adopted amendments to the law on citizenship, which the country’s Muslims (totaling about 200 million people) regard as discriminatory. In view of those amendments, it is significant that India’s main Muslim political force, the All India Council for Unity of Muslims (AIMIM), has joined the INDIA coalition.
The second factor is more global in nature, and relates to the trend towards dehumanization that is evident in almost all spheres of human activity. This applies first of all to the economy, and the idea that there is no place for human involvement in the quest for economic “progress.” And this, in turn, creates a problem for employment, especially for the young. This problem is particularly painful in such a huge country as India, in which the young and middle-aged generations are dominant. A preliminary analysis of the election results of the elections suggests that the growing dissatisfaction of young Indians with the situation in the country was a major factor.
Be that as it may, most commentators agree that Narendra Modi’s new government is in a much weaker position, and that this will affect its ability to carry out a long-overdue comprehensive reforms of the Indian economy.
Islamabad sends out a remarkable signal to New Delhi
As far as foreign policy is concerned, New Delhi’s most pressing problem continues to be its persistently tense relations with Islamabad, which have already led to several wars between India and Pakistan. These wars could be better described, to use the current term, as an ongoing and continuous proxy or hybrid conflict. And the status of former Kashmir, which remains an open wound, is not the only issue on which the two countries are at odds. Pakistan, for example, periodically accuses its neighbor of supporting separatist movements in Baluchistan and being involved in “intrigues” in Afghanistan.
But even though there appears to be little hope for improvement in relations between the two countries, every now and again there are signals of a willingness to put an end to this exhausting confrontation. For example, in late May former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (the elder brother of current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif) publicly admitted his country’s responsibility for the failure of the Lahore Declaration, which he and his Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpayee signed in February 1999. The latter, by the way, represented the BJP, which first came to power in India at that time.
The very fact that this document was signed between India and Pakistan could well have been a turning point in relations between these seemingly eternal enemies. Importantly, both countries were by then de facto nuclear powers. However, the Kargil conflict that broke out three months after the signing of the Declaration put an end to these hopes. It would appear fairly easy for Nawaz Sharif to make admissions of this kind, as the actual blame for the failure of the Lahore Declaration lay with the Pakistani military, which has always played a very “specific” role in Pakistan’s political system.
This admission has been welcomed in India, as has the current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s declared commitment to improve bilateral relations, but nevertheless it would be a mistake to overlook the existence of a growing number of obstacles on the path to reconciliation. In particular, India’s change to the status of the former State of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 continues to be perceived in Pakistan as very painful.
Visit to China by the Prime Minister of Pakistan
Shehbaz Sharif’s recent week-long visit to China was not his first foreign trip following his reinstatement in this position (his first working trip was to his fellow Muslims in the wealthy Gulf States) but it does appear extremely significant in terms of the overall development of the political situation in South Asia.
This fact should put an end to the frequent speculations that the complex domestic political situation in Pakistan is due to the allegedly “pro-Western” (or pro-American) events of spring 2022, which resulted in the dramatic ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The entire course of this trip, including the talks held between Shehbaz Sharif and Chinese top officials, especially Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and the content of the Joint Statement signed by Sharif and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang, testify to Islamabad’s long-term commitment to its policy of developing an “ironclad friendship” with Beijing.
The connecting axis of this relationship is the long-standing China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which is a major element of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative project. Notably, both the CPEC and the BRI are the subject of regular propaganda attacks by China’s main geopolitical opponent. Shehbaz Sharif’s assurances of Pakistan’s continued commitment to both the CPEC and the BRI was therefore particularly significant.
As for Beijing’s “sensitive” domestic and foreign policy issues, Sharif assured his hosts of Pakistan’s full support in these areas. That applies to the situation in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Tibet and Hong Kong, the Taiwan issue or the tensions in the South China Sea.
In turn, Beijing agreed with Islamabad’s long-standing position on the need to involve the UN in the process of achieving a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue.
Finally, it should be noted that Russia maintains positive and constructive relations with the three leading Asian countries discussed in this article, and is interested in developing these relations further. This is entirely consistent with Russia’s “turn to the East,” as the eastward reorientation of its main foreign policy is often described.
However, the specific nuances and details of the highly significant (and frequently contradictory) overall situation in both South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region as a whole need to be taken into account.
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on the issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”