Parliamentary elections are taking place in South Korea today, and you can pay attention to the results of opinion polls and forecasts of politicians themselves. Of course, in the history of South Korean elections, force majeure situations are far from unusual and most of the groups are under the influence of one of the main parties (usually the Democratic Party). Moreover, often the results are distorted, even without taking into account the fact that gap between the parties is often narrow, within the statistical error of plus or minus 3.1%. What is more, the battle between the parties owes more to negative PR than to positive ratings.
As readers may remember, 300 seats are at stake – 254 direct-vote seats and 46 proportional representation seats. 698 candidates from 21 political parties plus 58 independent candidates are competing for the direct vote seats. In addition, 38 parties have nominated 253 candidates who will compete for the proportional representation seats.
The main criteria influencing voters when they decide which candidate to vote for in the direct vote constituencies are party affiliation – 28.9%, campaign promises – 27%, competence and experience – 22.4% and moral qualities – 16.5%. As for the proportional representation candidates, voters’ main concerns are: the competence and abilities of the candidate – 24.8%, views and policies of the party – 22.9%, affiliation with the party supported by the region – 19.6%, and ties with the party supported by the voter – 13.5%.
29.4% of respondents view the upcoming elections as “clean,” while 25.8% view them as “dirty.” Among the reasons for the latter voters mentioned are: slander and “black” PR by parties and candidates – 35.2%, and unjustified and unfair media reports – 22.9%.
What would a so-called “vote of the people” look like?
Public opinion polls conducted between December 26 and December 27, 2023, showed that 35% of people aged 18 and over are still undecided about which party’s candidate to vote for in their constituency in the upcoming elections. Another 29% said they would vote for the People Power (Conservative Party) candidate, while 25% favored the Democratic candidate.
30% thought that the Democratic Party should win the elections, showing their distrust of the regime, while 26% believed that the Conservative Party should win, showing their distrust of the opposition. However, another 22% said that neither side merited the confidence of the public.
Only 18% of respondents indicated that they would be willing to vote for Lee Jun-seok’s new party, while 20% expressed support for Lee Nak-yong.
According to a poll from December 28-30, 2023 by Korea Research, the level of support for the Democratic Party was 36%, while support for the ruling People Power Party stood at 35%.
In a joint survey conducted by the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper and Gallup Korea in January 2024, 53% of respondents wanted the opposition to take over, while 39% supported the government. But at the same time, while 39% supported People Power, just 34% wanted to see a Democrat government. This strange inconsistency means that while the general public wants a change in government, they don’t like the Democratic Party either.
When asked if they thought the Conservatives or Democrats could command a parliamentary majority, 51% and 45%, respectively, stated that they would not want this, and 18% stated that they would vote for a third party. In another poll, 22% of respondents said both major parties “should be punished.”
According to the results of an opinion poll conducted by the Realmeter agency on January 11-12, the approval ratings for the Democratic Party and the Conservative Party were 42.4% and 39.6% percent respectively.
And in a poll conducted on February 7, 2024, in which respondents were asked the question: “If the national assembly elections were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?”, 33% of respondents answered that they would vote for the ruling Conservative Party while 35% aid they would vote for the Democrats.
In addition, 21% of respondents wanted to see more candidates from the third-party bloc elected. However, there were no minor parties with support levels above 10%.
In an opinion poll conducted by the Korea Social Opinion Institute (KSOI) on February 15-16, the leading political parties were ranked as follows: the Conservative Party 44.3%, the Democratic Party 35.9%, the Reform Party 7.5% and the Green Justice Party 2.1%. For the proportional representation seats the figures were: the Conservative Party 43%, the Democratic Party 30.3%, the Reform Party 9.9% and the Green Justice Party 3.6%.
In an opinion poll conducted at the end of February on support for the political parties, the People Power Party was supported by 43.5% of respondents and the Democratic Party by 39.5%. In the third place came Lee Jun-seok’s Reform Party, with 4.3%.
According to the results of the poll conducted on February 28-29, the rating of the ruling party was 46.7%, while support for the opposition was 39.1%.
According to a poll conducted by Hankook Research in early March, 33% of respondents said they would vote for the Conservatives, while 30% favored the Democrats. The decline was attributed to the fact that 56% disapproved of the Democratic Party’s nomination process. 25% of respondents are still undecided, and of the small party leaders, Cho Kuk received 3%, while Lee Nak-yeon and Lee Juon-seok were both favored by 1% of respondents.
A poll released on March 11 showed that if the vote were held the following day, the Conservatives and Democrats would receive 33% and 26% of the vote respectively. The Democrats attribute the drop in approval ratings to a widening factional split caused by disputes about the nomination process, which has led to the departure of influential figures.
However, according to another Realmeter poll also published on March 11, 2024, the Conservatives had a 41.9% support rating, compared to 43.1% for the Democrats.
Results of the survey conducted by Realmeter on March 14-15: 37.9% of respondents supported the Conservative party, 40.3% supported the Democratic Party, 4.2% the Reform Party, 2.6% New Future and 1.5% the Green Justice Party.
According to a poll conducted on March 15, support for the ruling party was at 37%, while support for the Democratic Party was at 32%. Cho Kuk came in third place, with 7%. As for respondents’ views on the likely election outcome, 49% expected the Democratic Party to win a majority, while 40% favored the Conservatives.
Results of a survey conducted from March 19 to 21 by Gallup Korea. 51% of South Koreans believed that the Democratic Party would win a majority of seats in the National Assembly following the April 10 parliamentary elections. 36% predicted victory for the ruling Conservative Party. Approval for the Conservatives stood at 34%, compared with 33% for the Democratic Party.
According to a RealMeter poll released on March 26, the Democratic Party had an approval rating of 42.8%, while 37.2% favored the Conservatives.
According to an opinion poll conducted by Gallup Korea poll from March 26 to 28, the Conservatives received a 37% approval rating and the Democrats 25%, with 15% of respondents expressing their support for Cho Kuk’s Innovation Party. Support for the Reform Party stood at 3%, while support for the Green Justice Party and the New Future Party stood at 1% each.
The Cho Kuk phenomenon is rather interesting. His party is not fielding any single-member candidates, but, of those voting on party lists for the proportional representation seats, 29% expressed their intention to vote for the “satellite” Conservatives, 21% for the “satellite” Democrats, and 15% for the Innovation Party, which is mostly supported by Democrat voters. This can be taken both as a sign of a split in the Democrat camp and as a sign that all Moon Jae-in’s former supporters have transferred their allegiance to Cho Kuk, a member of former President Moon’s inner circle. Especially after Cho Kuk and Lee Jae-myung decided to fight Yoon Seok-yeol together, given the Democrats’ falling ratings.
40% of respondents said that more candidates from the ruling party should be elected, while 49% said that more opposition candidates should be elected. The remaining 11% refrained from commenting.
A poll conducted by Realmeter on March 28-29 revealed slightly different approval figures: Democratic Party – 43.1%, Conservative Party – 35.4%, Reform Party – 4.5%, New Future Party – 3.6% (+0.5%), United Liberal Party 2.7% – (+1.9%), Progressive Party – 1.6% and the Green Justice Party – 1.4%.
The bottom line can be summarized roughly as follows:
- According to the current opinion poll rankings, the Conservatives and Democrats are running neck and neck. In many of the surveys the gap is within the margin of error and is subject to the bias of the polling agency.
- In the question “who to vote for” the Democrats are somewhat ahead, as they benefit from the protest factor – i.e., people are likely to vote for them, not because they support them, but because they oppose the current government.
- As yet, there is no evidence of a third force capable of winning in the constituencies. Cho Kuk did a deal with Lee Jae-myung, and unlike Lee Nak-yong and co., he insisted his goal was cooperation rather than protest (“we dislike both the President and the Party Chairman equally”).
And who is likely to be elected president?
In December 2023, when asked who they thought was the most suitable candidate for the presidency, 25% of respondents named Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung and 24% named former Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon, interim head of the ruling Conservative Party.
In a January 2024 poll on the possible results of the 2027 presidential election, Lee Jae-myung led with 39% approval, Han Dong-hoon came in second with 35%, and Gyeonggi Province Governor Kim Dong-yeon, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, and former Toburo chief Lee Nak-yon all came in third place with 4% each, with other candidates gaining even lower approval ratings.
According to a Matrix poll released on March 5, 2024, 33% of respondents said they would vote for Han Dong-hoon, while 30% favored Lee Jae-myung.
According to a survey conducted by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), 53% of respondents view Han Dong-hoon’s performance as interim head of the ruling Conservative Party favorably (compared with 40.7%, who view it negatively). Only 38% of respondents view the performance of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung favorably (compared with 56.6%, who view it negatively).
What do the politicians themselves expect?
On March 26, 15 days before the April 10 general election, officials of the Conservative and Democratic Parties said that their parties expected to win in at least 82 and 110 constituencies respectively. In the remaining 60 or so constituencies, no party has a clear lead.
The Capital region will presumably be won by the Democrats, where they have a clear or slight lead in 85-97 of the 122 districts, while the Conservatives, by their own account, are counting on 20-24, which they would se as a good result (they took 16 districts 4 years ago).
Busan, Daegu and North and South Gyeongsang provinces are still dominated by the Conservatives, where they expect to take almost all the seats. The Democrats are in a similar situation in Gwangju and North and South Jeolla provinces. They are also leading in six of the eight districts in Gangwon Province.
According to other polls conducted in early March, the Democrats lead in Seoul 34% to 32%, while the gap is wider in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, where they lead 35% to 29%. But in Chungcheong Province and Daejeon City, the Conservatives are leading 35% to 30%.
Both parties have a strong support base in specific regions. The Conservatives have the support of 52% of voters in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, and 45% support in Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province. Meanwhile, in Gwangju and Jeolla Province, the Democrats have the support of 48% of voters.
As for the chances of specific politicians, then according to the results of a survey conducted in Incheon’s Gyeyang-B district on March 9-10 by K-stat Research for the Chosun Ilbo newspaper and TV Chosun, 43% of voters support Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung. Support for the Conservative candidate, former Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong, stood at 35%.
In the Bundang-A constituency of Seongam, Gyeonggi Province, 40% of respondents support ruling party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, while 36% support opposition candidate Lee Kwang-jae.
According to a poll conducted by Embrain Public, also in Incheon’s Gyeyang-B constituency, Lee Jae-myung has 42% voter support, a narrow lead over Won Hee-ryong, with 39%.
Lee Jun-seok, on the other hand, is in a weaker position. According to a Hangil Research poll Lee Juon-seok has the support of 23.1% of voters, a long way behind Democratic candidate Kong Young-woon, former Hyundai Motor Company president, who is supported by 46.2% of those polled. Conservative candidate Han Jeong-min trailed behind both, with just 20.1%.
Overall, South Korean media note that the preliminary forecasts are only approximate, and subject to change depending on the dynamics of the internal political situation and the actions taken by both the leading parties to consolidate voter support. In addition, there is a large proportion of undecided voters in the capital region and in Chungcheong, Busan and South Gyeongsang Provinces.
As a result, observers will be kept in suspense until the last minute. Nevertheless, the present author will try to make a prediction without taking into account any possible force majeure events.
- The Democrats (including their satellite parties) will gain more seats than the Conservatives (including their satellites) from the protest voters, but they will most likely NOT get 50%+1 vote, unless they join forces with Cho Kuk, Lee Nak-yeon, Lee Jung-seok, Green Justice, and other leftists. The two-thirds majority that Cho Kuk dreams of (in order to impeach the President at the first meeting) is all the more unlikely.
- The Conservatives, including the center-right, have a chance of getting one-third to one-half of the votes, but even if Han Dong-hoon pulls off a miracle, they are unlikely to get 50%+1 vote either. However, they should take more seats than they did four years ago.
- The role played by the small parties will increase because the major parties will have to negotiate with them, but they will not be able to win places on the party lists, as the satellites and Cho Kuk will swallow up all the places. So they will probably not succeed in becoming a third force in Korean politics. On the other hand, marginalized “right-wingers” will not get through either.
- The domestic political situation will be a significant factor, especially the medical crisis or new rampant scandals. However, even if strong witnesses appear in the case against Lee, there will be no time to put him in jail and after the elections he will be able to wriggle out of the charges.
- Electoral violence, including attempts to influence the outcome after the final numbers have been announced? There’s a small chance of such developments, perhaps 4-5%, but this author is not ruling it out. There is too much at stake and if the Democrats get 50%+1 of the seats then Yoon will be a lame duck for the rest of his term.
Konstantin Asmolov, Candidate of Historical Sciences and Leading research fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”