Following the start of the massive Hamas attack on Israel (Operation Al-Aqsa Flood) on 7 October this year, Iran, as is well known, took an unambiguous pro-Palestinian stance and actually led the resistance front against the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Unlike most of the key countries of the Middle East (including the Arab and Islamic world in general), Tehran did not lean towards “verbal diplomacy” and general appeals (such as “ceasefire”, “humanitarian aid”, “search for compromise”, etc.). Although Iran does not publicly intervene in the military conflict, it does not rule out such a scenario for itself and its partners in the ongoing war.
In fact, there have been no changes in the Iranian side’s approach to Israel because Tehran, as before, accuses and condemns the “Zionist regime” in everything, calls for its complete destruction, considers the collective West led by the U.S. as the main accomplice of “Israeli crimes” against the Palestinians. At the same time, the IRI has its supporters (Shiite proxy forces) in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, which form the basis for the likely expansion of the anti-Israeli front.
Iranian policy tends to expand the geography and content of the Islamic resistance front. In terms of new forms of solidarity of the Islamic world with the Palestinian liberation struggle in the Gaza Strip, Tehran names:
– the growth of anti-Israeli and anti-Western demonstrations in the countries of the Middle East, and through Muslim communities in the United States and Europe;
– calls from the Muslim public to their own governments to provide effective (including political, financial, economic, humanitarian and military) assistance to Hamas;
– demands from the Arab East and the Islamic world in general to suspend all trade and economic ties with Israel (including the imposition of an embargo on oil and gas sales);
– closure of airspace over Israel;
– calls for the withdrawal of US and other NATO military bases from the Middle East and blocking their military activity in the region;
– using the capabilities of pro-Iranian groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen to launch targeted strikes and subversive activities against US bases in the region;
– Conducting military exercises of the Iranian Armed Forces and IRGC in the south and the Persian Gulf zone, putting them on alert and targeting US and Israeli military facilities in the Middle East.
At the same time, Tehran has so far ruled out a direct military conflict with Israel at this stage, but does not rule out such a possibility in the event of an anti-Iranian military provocation by Tel Aviv.
Iranian expert Ansari notes in this regard: “Even for Netanyahu, who has consistently stated that limiting Iran’s influence is his top priority, a full-scale war with Iran is undesirable at this point. The Hamas attack on the occupied territories followed 38 weeks of continuous protests against Netanyahu’s government. The current Israeli cabinet, perhaps the weakest in the history of the Zionist regime and filled with right-wing extremists, seems to be blaming Iran mainly to co-save face and avoid further humiliation.”
The second month of the war against Hamas makes it possible to note that despite numerical and military superiority, the Israeli army has not yet been able to completely crush Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip. Accordingly, for the General Staff of the Israel Defence Forces it is becoming obvious that a wider and larger conflict with Iran could lead to new surprises for Tel Aviv, and Prime Minister Netanyahu will not be able to avoid the fate of the resignation in the spring of 1974 of the famous Golda Meir after the Doomsday War in October 1973.
Initially in the US, Jewish lobbyists tried to convince the administration of President Joseph Biden that Iran was involved in the Hamas attack on Israel. Consequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s supporters were leaning towards a military confrontation with Iran. However, President Biden is a very experienced politician and is hardly naive. The United States has already made miscalculations by provoking a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The Americans, despite the transfer of new forces and means to the Middle East, in the situation with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have faced new forms of forceful pressure from pro-Iranian forces. We are talking about periodic missile strikes on US military facilities (bases) in Iraq and Syria.
Taking into account the temporary truce between Hamas and Israel reached on 22 November, a meeting of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders and Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian was held in Lebanon. According to Al Mayadeen TV channel, the Iranian minister said in Beirut that “if the war continues, the opening of new fronts is inevitable.” According to Abdollahian, a violation of the ceasefire will lead to the formation of new circumstances in the region and the expansion of military operations.
However, Iran realises that its entry into the war against Israel will lead to a joint US-Israeli counterstrike. And this is a powerful force of combat aircraft, missile systems and naval forces that could inflict a colossal and irreparable blow to civilian infrastructure and populations. Israel, for example, would be able to destroy Lebanon. In other words, it will no longer be a war with guerrilla pro-Iranian groups that periodically distract and keep Israeli army forces and U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria in suspense.
Iran is aware of the likely risks from getting it wrong. At the same time, Tehran has benefited from the U.S. fiasco to forge economic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a result of the Palestinian-Israeli war. Although Riyadh does not support more drastic steps towards Tel Aviv in terms of supporting a unified Islamic military-political coalition, it was forced to stop all negotiations on establishing relations with the Jewish state. This is a long pause and a setback for Washington’s regional initiatives.
Meanwhile, the US also has many other distractions from the Middle East theater on which it has to focus its attention and divert a lot of energy and resources.
Washington (apparently based on CIA data) believed that harsh economic sanctions would force Russia to defeat, as the Russians would suffer economic collapse and Russian arsenals would be emptied. But time has disproved American hopes. Today, the U.S. is faced with two dilemmas – how to provide strong financial, economic and military support to both Ukraine and Israel at the same time? In addition, the U.S. is expecting another presidential election next year. Finally, the U.S. sees a strengthening China as the main threat. And this requires competition and a lot of money. Accordingly, Washington will rather be forced to devote a significant part of its military and intelligence power to competing with Beijing, not forgetting the fate of Taiwan.
It follows that it would be inadvisable for the United States to launch another long and futile war in West Asia against Iran.
Alexander SVARANTS – PhD of Political Science, Professor, especially for the online magazine «New Eastern Outlook».