On May 9th, 2023, in an unprecedented display of unrest, Pakistan witnessed a succession of distressing images that dominated the airwaves, unveiling a furious backlash against the military establishment. The upheaval was set into motion when supporters of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party attacked the General Headquarters, unleashing chaos upon the Lahore Corps Commander’s residence and marring military properties and monuments nationwide. This stark departure from the peaceful protests of Mr. Khan and his party in the past, despite enduring relentless political harassment for over a year, left the nation stunned.
The response from the state, particularly the infuriated military establishment, was equally brutal and marked a turning point for Pakistan. Internet services were abruptly suspended, plunging the nation into widespread blackouts and inflicting billions of rupees in losses upon telecommunications and other industries. The military was deployed in the capital city Islamabad as well as in Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to restore order, imposing restrictions on public gatherings.
The aftermath of May 9th was plagued by conspiracy theories, with some suggesting collusion between Pakistan’s military establishment and the government to discredit the PTI. Proving or debunking such claims amidst the ceaseless propaganda from both sides proved arduous. However, it was evident that some PTI followers were involved in the riots directly, as testified by arrested party members. Irrespective of the circumstances, that fateful day cast a dark shadow over Pakistan, prompting introspection on the collective responsibility for this tragic turn of events. Although Mr. Khan was later released by the Islamabad High Court, the unfortunate events of May 9th gave space to the ruling Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government as well as the establishment to use overly forceful measures against the PTI. The PDM is a coalition of Pakistani political parties led by infamous politicians such as Fazul-ur-Rehman, Nawaz Sharif, and Zardari to delegitimize Imran Khan with the blessings of the military elites.
What Caused the May 9 Riots?
The root cause of the May 9th riots can be traced back to April 10th, 2022, when tensions escalated between the establishment-PDM alliance and PTI after Mr. Khan’s exodus from the Prime Minister’s office. This incident was another chapter in Pakistan’s unpredictable civil-military relations. Imran Khan accused ex-army chief Bajwa of manufacturing the latter’s ousting by leveraging the old guard of Pakistani politics, the PDM. PTI’s narrative resonated with many Pakistanis, highlighting the establishment’s alleged support for a corrupt entity like the PDM.
As tensions escalated, PTI leaders and journalists faced antagonism, arrests, and even torture. Leaked audio recordings, though dubious in authenticity, further tarnished the reputation of PTI leaders, including Mr. Khan, attracting international scrutiny. All this coupled with an assassination attempt on Mr. Khan’s life on November 3rd, 2022, intensified public anger against the establishment, intensifying calls for fresh elections.
The May 9th protests and riots unfolded in a precarious political climate, exacerbated by Pakistan’s inflation curse and the widening gulf between the most popular political party and the seemingly omnipotent military establishment.
Imran Khan’s Recent Arrest
In the aftermath of the riots, the establishment’s retribution targeted not only those directly involved but also other PTI members and leaders. Several PTI leaders resigned from the party, raising concerns over possible coercion. With tens of thousands of PTI members arrested, the party has been significantly weakened. Moreover, some of the civilians might be tried in military courts which has also alarmed the international community. Some PTI members such as Murad Saeed are in hiding due to the ongoing witch hunt.
Fate was cruelest to Mr. Khan himself, who was facing a massive 150 cases since he was unceremoniously ousted from the PM office, and subsequently arrested on 5th of August for illegally selling state gifts. This his supporters and his party vehemently deny. Many in the country suspect the establishment behind this machination as well as the countless other cases against him since ousted from office. One reason for this logic is that Mr. Khan had not ceased his campaign targeting senior army officials in the country.
Besides falling out of favor with the establishment, he is enemy number one for the PDM as well because he, for decades, shed light on their alleged corruption. Therefore, for them, it was mandatory to remove Imran Khan from the upcoming election as if he was re-elected, he could axe the sitting army chief as well as pursue corruption cases against the PDM leadership.
What Now?
This Imran Khan predicament for the establishment-PDM nexus is not one that can simply be brushed underneath the carpet. Imran Khan remains the country’s most popular leader with 61% of Pakistanis holding a positive view of the former PM. His support augments after every persecution he faces – this arrest will prove the same.
Mr. Khan has been jailed for 3 years and banned from politics for 5 years. This decision was made by one of the lower courts and the PTI leadership will now pursue an appeal in the high court. Especially because his arrest ruling was made when he was not even in court – Pakistani law does not allow trials to be conducted in absentia. Therefore, people are even more suspicious of something afoul being at play.
Regardless of the legitimacy or lack thereof of this arrest coupled with the victimization the PTI and its supporters are being put through, it is an exceedingly dichotomous environment in the country. On the one side is Mr. Khan and his plethora of hardcore supporters and on the other is the state machinery being puppeteered by the establishment-PDM nexus. Currently, protests have not erupted after Mr. Khan’s arrest due to people fearing strict action by the authorities, but the people can only take so much. Apart from Imran Khan’s victimization, other facets such as the resurging terrorism, the rising inflation, the energy crisis, the disappearance of civil freedoms, the persistent energy crisis, and high unemployment, have rendered the country anemic and left the masses incensed.
If Imran Khan is unable to compete in the upcoming elections, things will only worsen for the frail country – Pakistan, therefore, finds itself between a rock and a hard place yet again.
Taut Bataut – is a researcher and writer that publishes on South Asian geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.