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What does the future hold for Afghanistan?

Vladimir Platov, April 08

What does the future hold for Afghanistan? Taliban

As you might be aware, the Taliban insurgents who are proscribed in Russia took over the Afghan capital, Kabul, on August 15, 2021, with minimal resistance and have since become the sole governing power in the country. The Taliban have expressed their willingness to engage with the international community, establish an inclusive government with representatives from all regions of the country, and uphold the basic rights of the populace, including women.

Despite these assurances, the Taliban have failed to deliver on most of their pledges made almost twenty months ago, leading to a lack of recognition from the international community. The media and politicians from various nations continue to portray Afghanistan as the most perilous country full of Islamic extremists, a primary source of refugees, a nation with a corrupt economy, and dire demographics.

The population of the country exceeds 40 million people. Afghanistan holds the championship in the world in terms of fertility (women, on average, have 6-7 children), although with an average life expectancy of 44.6 years (214th place in the world). Its GDP per capita makes it rank 169th in the world out of 189, foreign aid amounts to $ 2.6 billion with a state budget of $ 3.3 billion. The country has rich natural resources: coal, iron, copper, precious and rare earth metals, oil, gas, etc., which, however, are not used or developed. The humanitarian situation is very difficult, 20 million people, half of the country’s population, are experiencing food shortages. There was an outflow of tens of thousands of highly qualified workers who fled the country. The Ministry of Women’s Affairs was dissolved, and women’s rights continue to be curtailed. In terms of civil liberties, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated.

The number of ISIS (a terrorist group banned in the Russian Federation) fighters in the country is estimated to have grown from 2,000 to 6,000, and the radicalization of society is increasing, which has caused constant concern among Central Asian (CA) countries about threats to regional security. And this concern was further heightened after the sensational revelations of Taliban leader Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada a few days ago, after the theses of his speech appeared on Afghan social networks. It appears from the published material that the first phase of the jihad in the country has been passed and now the Taliban (a formation banned in the Russian Federation) intends to spread the Shariah system of governance around the world.

The statement of the Taliban Emir shattered the hopes of many politicians that democratic principles would be established in the country, because Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada said during the above-mentioned speech to the scholars that there would be no “inclusive government” in Afghanistan. A complete Shariah system in the country is planned by combining the actions of religious scholars and “rulers”, i.e. Taliban administrators. And the scholars, who know the religious norms better than the Taliban, will be present in all the structures of power to control the observance of Sharia, and they are entrusted with the main task in this process.

A few months ago, prominent American political scientist Cheryl Bernard, wife of former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad through the media openly called on the head of Defense Ministry Mullah Yaqoob and Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, who are trying to negotiate behind the scenes with foreign partners and criticized the fundamentalist environment of Mawlawi Haibatullah, to stage a coup in Afghanistan. In this connection, seeking to preserve the old order and strengthen control over life in the country, Emir Haibatullah Akhundzada announced the establishment of a 40,000-strong personal guard corps, not ruling out the possibility of changing the leadership of security agencies. This personal guard corps will be financed from the country’s budget and act as a counterweight to law enforcement and the army.

As for the army, the Defense Ministry of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” (IAE, as the Taliban call their country) is planning to increase the number of soldiers to 200,000 this year. The army’s chief of staff, Qari Fasihuddin Fetrath, disclosed this intention. In this case, it is taken into account that the IEA has all military equipment left from the previous government and has eight military units, including the Central Army Corps in addition to two military units in Bagram and Badakhshan, and in the provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Paktia, Laghman, Kunduz and Balkh. To date, the Taliban have even managed to establish their own air force, which they have not had for the past 20 years. This Air Force has dozens of aircraft, which are already being used in combat operations against armed groups of the opponents of the current regime.

It is noteworthy that at the time of the seizure of power in Afghanistan in mid-August 2021 the number of Taliban fighters was estimated at 100,000 people. According to Global Firepower Index, the total number of troops in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) today is about 222,000 soldiers. Against this background, the 200,000-strong jihadist corps created by the Taliban can pose a serious threat to the countries of this region.

The sensational revelations of Mawlawi Haibatullah thus refute the assertions of many politicians and experts who have assured public opinion that the Afghan Taliban allegedly has no global jihadist ambitions. In this regard, it is worth recalling who Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada is.

He was born on October 19, 1967 in the Panjwayi district (south-west of Kandahar city), belonging to the Nurzai tribe. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, he took refuge with his family in Pakistan, where his religious views were formed. In the late 1980s he fought against the Soviet troops and trained the mujahedin.

Haibatullah Akhundzada holds the title “mawlawi,” a title above that of mullah held by Muhammad Omar, the founder of the Taliban. He was elected by the movement’s council on May 25, 2016, following the assassination of Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour. After former Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar appointed him head of the military court in Kabul in 1996, he was responsible for most Taliban fatwas and resolving religious issues among movement members.

After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Haibatullah Akhundzada played an active role in the revival and organization of jihad against the United States and coalition forces on Afghan territory.

On May 22, 2015, former Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Balochistan province in southwestern Pakistan. On May 25, 2016, the election of Haibatullah Akhundzada as leader of the Taliban was announced by members of the Shura Ahl al-ḥall wa-l-ʿaqd, the Taliban’s highest governing body. Immediately after this election, the leader of al-Qaeda (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) Ayman al-Zawahiri swore allegiance to him and called him “the lord of the faithful,” which strengthened his credibility among the jihadists.

On February 29, 2020, the Taliban signed the historic Doha Peace Agreement with the United States in Qatar under Akhundzada’s leadership.

In his latest speech, Mawlawi Haibatullah emphasized his special political status in the “Islamic system” being created in Afghanistan. Which some Afghan experts saw as a message from the emir of the Taliban, not only to individual ambitious ministers of the Taliban government in Kabul, but also to the rest of the world.

Vladimir Platov, expert on the Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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