During Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s keynote speech on January 23, at the winter session of Japan’s parliament, among the key internal and external problems confronting the country’s government was the country’s continuous birth rate decline (over the past few years), mentioned practically for the first time. However, the unavoidable and multifaceted “national catastrophe” associated with this has long been discussed. Not only among experts, but also at government meetings. A special ministry has even been established to combat this disaster.
But in the Prime Minister’s public address to parliament, this problem, we repeat, was included for the first time in the list of several “traditional” issues. Such as, for example, turbulence in the economy, which requires its restructuring in the format of “new capitalism,” and various kinds of “external challenges.”
In these latter, the government of the country includes “unprovoked Russian aggression in Ukraine,” “aggressive behavior in the region by the PRC and the DPRK.” As a response to such “challenges”, “radical” innovations in the sphere of defense, which require appropriate financial support, have been announced. The main source of which, apparently, will be additional taxation of both businesses and ordinary citizens, which provokes understandable sentiments in society.
Under these conditions, it is simply unacceptable to continue mumbling words in relation to the problem of the falling birth rate, which is particularly dangerous in the long term. Especially since the data published late last year by the Department of Health show only its continuous (“for the past seven years and for the first time since registration began in 1899”) aggravation.
The findings of a recent survey of young people aged 17 to 19 about their attitudes toward marriage are also dismal. More than a third of those who declared their intention to marry, do not want to have children at all. And the majority of those who plan to have them will only have one child.
As a result, there has been a lot of panic about the already dangerous problem of an aging population. At the very least, the total population could be cut in half within a few decades. It is no idle question who will serve in the government agencies tasked with “countering Sino-Korean-Russian aggression” by the current Japanese government. Given the general disapproval of military service in Japan today.
Surveys are used to determine what is at the root of young people’s generally negative attitude toward the prospect of continuing to live as a family and as a Japanese nation. The general answer, roughly speaking, boils down to fears of loss of freedom of action in an uncertain and increasingly hostile future. A crucial component of this response lies in the area of material (in the broadest interpretation of this category) provision for both the present and the future.
Therefore, in order to at least curb the pace of development of the demographic problem which is disastrous for Japan, the Prime Minister appeals to private businesses to maintain employee salaries at a level that would include the inflation factor. It should be noted that the addressee of such an appeal (the contents of which constitute one of the main elements of the “new capitalism” concept mentioned above) is not obliged to react positively to it. Especially in conditions of the quite probable emergence of problems in connection with the financial support of the updated National Security Strategy.
Masanobu Ogura, who heads the above mentioned special ministry in the government with a wide range of tasks, among which the fight against low birth rate is the main one, speaks of the need for stability in the area of employment for young people.
Apparently, in order to win political points in the eyes of women (on the eve of very likely early parliamentary elections) F. Kishida made an obvious mistake when he advised Japanese women on maternity leave not to waste time and get involved in upgrading their working skills or even simply retraining during that period. Which, when the period is over, may help them strengthen their position in the labor market, and thus increase their level of financial security.
However, this useful piece of advice only served as an excuse for the opposition to accuse the Prime Minister of “ignorance of the subject,” on which he dared to argue publicly. It was clearly explained to him that bearing and giving birth to a child is far more difficult than raising a professional qualification. However, the critics appeared to be male as well, and it is unclear where they obtained their knowledge on this particular issue.
Let us also highlight Japan’s current Prime Minister’s extensive political experience, which, in general, can foster intuition in the search for answers to some pressing national issues. For example, F. Kishida doubts the usefulness of allowing same-sex marriages in Japan.
But, by the way, this is evidence of his “free-thinking.” This time in matters of global socio-cultural trends dubbed the “new normal.” Earlier, he responded by refusing Kyiv’s invitation to visit Ukraine – this “outpost of protection of the free world from Putin’s aggression.”
In general, as they call it, sometimes he “grows bold”. And, in fact, he gets away with it. At least for now. Apparently because the current Japanese government is completely following the “big brother” in the main issue of confrontation with China. China is the main target of the previously mentioned “radical” changes in Japan’s national security.
But the general state of anxiety among young people caused (among other things) by that prospect is not conducive to solving the problem of low birth rates, which Japan needs so much. And there is a lot of money to be spent on preparing to repel “aggressive intentions.”
Fumio Kishida’s cabinet faces a difficult choice…
Vladimir Terekhov, expert on issues of the Asia-Pacific region, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”