27.03.2020 Author: Ulson Gunnar

Covid-19 Hysteria Vs. Your Actual (Very Low) Chance of Dying


How likely are you to die from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19)? Based on the hysteria spreading across the globe, it would seem like the chances are fairly high.

But Statnews.com would report on the actual projected death rate of those who contract Covid-19 based on US Center for Disease Control (CDC) data, noting:

…the death rate in Covid-19 patients ages 80 and over was 10.4%, compared to 5.35% in 70-somethings, 1.51% in patients 60 to 69, 0.37% in 50-somethings. Even lower rates were seen in younger people, dropping to zero in those 29 and younger.

The article also noted that the worst cases involved not only people who were much older, but involved people who were also already unhealthy and vulnerable.

Others have noted that many will likely get Covid-19, think they have an ordinary cold, get better and never even be tested, thus never making it into the statistics meaning the actual death rates are likely even lower than being reported.

In other words, Covid-19 may be slightly more dangerous than the common flu, but not by much. Those who fall into a vulnerable category should obviously be more careful, but the hysteria being spread by governments and ordinary people alike is posing a bigger threat to human wellbeing than the actual virus itself.

Hysteria Will Cause More Harm Than the Virus Itself 

The economic damage alone this hysteria is creating will negatively impact the lives of many more ordinary people than the virus ever could and for a much longer period of time than Covid-19 takes to run its course within the typical human body or across various populations.

For nations like the US who are already in terminal economic, social and political decline, replicating its crumbling economy, society and political system in other nations, even if temporarily by spreading Covid-19 hysteria, may seem like a viable option when all other options, from soft-power to overt military force, have failed to keep the planet in line and within Washington’s unipolar “international order.”

Nations that have been reluctant to take extreme measures are being pressured to do so by a spreading wave of hysteria, deliberate or not, forcing them to close borders, shut businesses and disrupt the lives of millions, the vast majority of which are in no danger at all from the virus.

A similar trend was seen during the opening years of the US-led so-called “War on Terror” which other nations were forced into backing, including nations like Russia who knew full well the US itself was the chief state sponsor of the very terrorists Washington was supposedly fighting, but were reluctant to take issue with it in the face of perceived public fear over extremism following the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Considering just how badly the US exploited and abused that fear, it is hardly a surprise that people today are skeptical of handing large amounts of power over to the same sort of people in the face of another supposed threat.

Governments probably should take certain measures during such outbreaks, but ensuring the line between commonsense steps and the abuse of power is not crossed should be a primary public concern.

Regarding Covid-19, common sense should still be exercised. Avoiding large crowds, staying healthy, eating well, exercising and overall taking care of your body so that your body’s immune system can take care of you is the best measure and means of staving of Covid-19 or any other infectious disease, during a pandemic or not.

If you are part of a vulnerable demographic, obviously exercise more caution.

Create More Resilient Economies Regardless 

If extreme measures really are necessary to stop the spread of Covid-19 and other viruses like it, nations must create permanent infrastructure that ensures economic continuity before, during and after outbreaks, rather than being repeatedly caught off-guard each time a new virus appears.

Even by the most hysterical accounts, Covid-19 is not a doomsday scenario. It is not even a major human health threat. It is slightly more alarming than the ordinary flu, which itself is only a danger for those who are already in poor health and should already be exercising extra caution day-to-day.

Covid-19 requires a slightly more cautious and considered approach than managing the average flu.

Since we may never know where Covid-19 originated and how much of this hysteria is warranted, how much is simply human nature’s tendency to overreact and how much of it is a deliberate attempt to destabilize nations and economies around the globe, nations and communities must reexamine how they do business on a daily basis and think of ways to continue doing business even under the most extreme circumstances and in a way that will allow business-as-usual even amid another coronavirus outbreak or similar disruption.

Those nations which do not, set themselves up to be targets of those well-equipped to spread hysteria and stir up public panic which in turn will place pressure on targeted governments and endanger political, economic and social stability.

Gunnar Ulson, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.