The author’s last article, on a rapprochement between the two Koreas, was completed just before the high level talks which took place on 9 January 2018 at the Panmunjon border point in the de-militarized zone. The last meeting at similar level took place in August 2015, when the parties discussed ways to limit the deterioration of relations between the two states, following a series of incidents in the DMZ. The situation then was at the verge of conflict but it was resolved without either side suffering a loss of face. This time the situation was more peaceful: the talks took place after Kim Jong-un, the leader of the DPRK, had proposed, in his New Year speech, starting talks between North and South Korea and as a first step to send a North Korean delegation to the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang.
This determined the participants. The South Korean delegation was headed by Chо Myung-gyun, Minister of Unification, with his Vice Chun Hae-sung, An Moon-hyong, the deputy head of the Prime Minister’s office, Ro Tae Gon, the second Vice-Minister for Culture, Sport and Tourism, and Kim Hyeong, the vice president of the Organizing Committee for the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games.
The North Korean delegation included Ri Son Gwon, the head of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, and his deputy Jon Jong-su, as well as Hwang Chung-sung, the Secretary of the Committee, Won Gil-U, the Deputy Minister for Gymnastics and Sport, and Ri Kyong-sik, a member of the National Olympic Organizing Committee.
The talks were expected to focus on the participation of the North Korean team in the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, and related organizational and technical questions, including whether North Korean symbols, currently prohibited in South Korea, could be displayed during the Games, how North Korean athletes could enter South Korea, and the participation of both countries in the opening and closing ceremonies.
In addition, the South Korean side planned to raise questions connected with the negotiations between the two countries’ militaries, and between the national branches of the Red Cross to discuss the organization of reunions for families separated by the border.
As the Korean Central News Agency reported afterwards, ‘both sides seriously discussed questions related to participation in the 23rd Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, and questions related to the improvement of relations between North and South Korea in order to realize the hopes and expectations of all Koreans.’ Though the media reported that the dialogue began with Lee Song Gwon’s statement that ‘the rivers and mountains are covered with snow and ice, but we can, without exaggeration, say that the relations between the two Koreas are even more frozen’, it was later reported in Seoul that the ‘parties were able to achieve results that exceeded their expectations.’
The results of the meeting, as stated in the joint declaration, can be summarised as follows:
- The negotiations only lasted one day but were fairly intensive, with four rounds. This demonstrates that they were not simply held for show, but were a real attempt to discuss important questions in a constructive manner.
- The parties decided to ‘work together actively’ on the holding of the Olympic Games, as the Games ‘were a good opportunity to demonstrate the great image of our nation.’ In this context the DPRK is sending a ‘high-level delegation’ to South Korea, which will include sports fans, athletes, cultural figures, art and theatre ensembles, a taekwondo demonstration team, and journalists, and South Korea will provide them with the necessary support.
- Additional questions connected with the delegation will be discussed at a later date ‘by exchanging documents’ or working conversations. The total number of athletes is still unclear, (currently only one pair of figure skaters has qualified) and whether there will be a joint passage of delegations from the two countries, as proposed by South Korea. South Korea, by the way, is ready to discuss the details in the very near future.
- ‘Both North and South Korea have decided to make a joint effort to de-escalate military tension, bring about peace on the Korean Peninsula, and work together to bring about national reconciliation and unity.’ To achieve this, military talks are being renewed to prevent border conflicts and to restore (actually was tested on the day of the meeting) the ‘hotline’ between the two countries’ armies which had been out of operation for the previous two years, since the closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. South Korea had earlier more than once proposed restoring that communications channel, which was designed first and foremost to prevent accidental armed confrontations in the Yellow Sea near the northern borderline.
- The parties also decided to ‘initiate contacts, activities, exchange and cooperation in various areas’, which is similar to what was agreed in 2015 but which did not come to anything, both because of the declaration’s vague wording and because of changes in the political situation. Experts see this as a declaration concerning imminent meeting of members of divided families, something that South Korea proposed to organize in February to mark the Lunar New Year holiday, although this question was not directly discussed in the talks and there was no joint declaration on this point.
- ‘The parties agreed to respect joint declarations and decide all questions concerning the relationship between the two countries, based on the principle of the common forces of our nation and through dialogue and consultation’: here is an attempt to create a continuity in relations based on the results of the summits between the two Koreas in 2000 and 2007.
- South Korea attempted to raise the issue of de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but this subject was ‘brushed under the carpet’ after the head of the DPRK delegation expressed his annoyance and categorically refused to touch on this subject in the bi-lateral talks.
- There has been no formal end to the talks: ‘the parties have decided to hold high-level talks to improve the relations between the two countries and resolve their differences.’ In this context, according to Reuters, South Korea is even considering temporarily lifting the sanctions against North Korea if necessary in order to facilitate a visit by a North Korean delegation.
Moscow has welcomed the direct dialogue between representatives of North and South Korea (as the Russian President’s Press Secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said, ‘the Russian Government has consistently emphasized the need for just this kind of dialogue.’, as have the United Nations (António Guterres has commented that the Olympics can create an atmosphere of cooperation and peace) and the IOC (Thomas Bach has called this ‘a big step forwards for the Olympic movement.’) The American reaction has been more restrained: Heather Nauert, spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, said that the USA is continuing talks with South Korea to make sure that North Korea’s participation in the Olympics is not in breach of the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, and that the DPRK ‘must use its participation in the Games to emerge from its international isolation and start off on the path towards de-nuclearization’.
The day after the above response, in a meeting with journalists, Cho Myung-hyun stated that the talks with Pyongyang are consistent with the efforts of the international community, the aim of which is to ensure that the nuclear program is discontinued, and with a combined approach to solving the North Korean problems, involving both sanctions and dialogue.
However they are considered, these talks are very significant: they are the first talks between the two Koreas since Moon Jae-in came to power. South Korean representatives stated in June 2017 that South Korea had proposed to the DPRK that the two sides hold military talks to reduce tensions on the border as well as Red Cross councils to discuss reuniting divided families. North Korea did not respond to the proposals at the time, however. From a tactical point of view, Kim Jong-un gets a boost to his reputation and his supporters the reputation of an unpredictable regime: by refusing to enter into dialogue it becomes harder to choose arguments. Moon Jae-in acquires certain guarantees for the safety of the Olympics.
Does this mean that Kim Jong-un has outplayed Donald Trump and his team? Yes, the North Korean athletes will be represented in the Olympics, and analysts who follow events closely have commented that the North Korean leadership is acting in a constructive manner. There is some hope of a global defrosting of relations, at least compared with 2015, when communications between the two countries were at their lowest point.
The main question, however, is what will happen next. Let us assume that the Olympics take place without any conflict and there are no grounds for accusing the North Korean athletes of doping, and they are not forced to ‘choose freedom’. What will the next steps be? Reunions between members of divided families are important, but they only affect those who were divided by the war, and not their distant descendants. There are fewer and fewer such people and therefore such meetings have a purely ceremonial value. The author believes in ‘disarmament’ talks: but talking is one thing and disarmament is quite another.
Again, how will (postponed) joint exercises between South Korea and the USA take place in spring 2018, and what be exercised? Will Seoul attempt to disavow parts of the concluded agreements in speeches made on another occasion or in different political circumstances (the South Korean President’s style frequently varies according to the situation)? After all, in a telephone conversation between the Presidents of the USA and South Korea, the South Korean leader pointed out that, to a large degree, the successful talks between the two Koreas were made possible thanks to the assistance of Donald Trump. Thus there are already attempts to minimize the role of the DPRK’s initiative by presenting it as a measure that it has been forced into by the sanctions.
Another serious question is whether providing financial support to enable North Korea to take part in the Olympics will be in breach of the sanctions imposed on North Korea. This question will have to be resolved by South Korean officials, together with the UN sanctions committee and the US government.
That said, there turn out to be more problems than expected – for example, the arrival of a delegation from the DPRK by sea would certainly be in breach of the sanctions regime, because ships which have docked in North Korean ports in the previous 12 months are not allowed to enter ports in South Korea. Moreover, as the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun reported on January 12, the USA has called on South Korea, when it provides assistance to the North Korean delegation, to restrict such assistance to items and services which will be used exclusively in South Korea, and not to provide any goods that might be subsequently sold in the DPRK. By emphasizing that the North Koreans should not be given even ‘a single hockey stick’ the US allows the North Koreans’ food and accommodation in South Korea to be paid for but it is categorically against them receiving any gifts or being provided with any sports equipment.
As a result, the present author is not under any illusions: it is not so much a question of the warming of relations between North and South Korea to an above zero temperature, but a rapid rise up to ‘zero’ after a deep freeze. But even that gives the author some hope: for the first time in several years, the likelihood of conflict on the peninsula appears to have decreased, if only by a couple of percent.
Konstantin Asmolov, Ph.D. (Hist.), Leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
